Tropical Storm Wilfred has formed in the eastern Atlantic and that has now exhausted the list of hurricane names for the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. As a result, the Greek alphabet will be used from here on out with the next named system to become “Alpha” and this may be the tropical wave that has been meandering over the western Gulf of Mexico in recent days. The last time the Greek alphabet had to be used for the naming of tropical storms was the very active year of 2005. Meanwhile, Hurricane Teddy has intensified into a category 4 “major” storm over the central Atlantic and it will likely effect Bermuda late in the weekend and then it may have a direct impact on Nova Scotia, Canada as an unfolding blocking pattern in the atmosphere changes its course.
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The passage of a strong cold front in the overnight hours will pave the way for the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region anchored by strong high pressure over Canada. High temperatures from tomorrow through Monday will be confined to the 60’s in the DC metro region and suburban locations to the north and west can drop to the low-to-middle 40’s during the next few nights. The overall dry weather pattern that began earlier this week with the initial outbreak of cool, dry air will continue well into next week as high pressure dominates the weather scene in the Mid-Atlantic.
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While the remnants of Hurricane Sally produce heavy rainfall today from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic, attention is shifting to two other tropical systems of concern. One tropical system has been meandering over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in recent days and it looks like it will continue to do so for the next few days. As a result, it is very likely to soon intensify into named tropical storm status (would be called “Wilfred”) and it could ultimately have an impact pretty much anywhere on the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida. Meanwhile, Teddy has become a major hurricane over the central Atlantic and it is likely headed to near the island of Bermuda over the next few days. After that, the storm track forecast gets more complicated for Hurricane Teddy as it will encounter a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere with strong high pressure ridging over southeastern Canada and an upper-level trough over the Canadian Maritime Provinces. It is unclear as to whether this interaction will cause a turn to the northwest and perhaps towards northern New England/Southeastern Canada or if Hurricane Teddy will goes harmlessly out into the North Atlantic.
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The rains associated with the remains of Hurricane Sally now extend from Georgia to central Virginia at the same time a strong cold front is pushing southeastward across the Great Lakes. Showers are possible here from later today into early Friday with the heaviest and steadiest rain to the south and east of the District. The passage of this cold front in the overnight hours will usher in a very cool Canadian air mass for this time of year and we'll experience our lowest temperatures so far in coming nights. Highs are likely to be confined to the 60's in much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from Friday through Monday and overnight lows can drop to the middle 40's in some suburban locations to the north and west of the District.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of activity today with three hurricanes, Sally, Paulette and Teddy, and each one of them is currently categorized as category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Sally continues to move painfully slowly in the northern Gulf region after making landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama and will likely end up producing more than two feet of rain in some spots before finally pushing away later tonight and Thursday. Hurricane Paulette continues to move rapidly away from the US in an east-to-northeast direction while Hurricane Teddy likely heads towards Bermuda and it could soon reach “major” hurricane status. In fact, Hurricane Teddy will have to be closely monitored in coming days as a strong blocking high pressure system develops over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic which may force this system to the northwest after passing over Bermuda (i.e., perhaps in the direction of northern New England). In addition, a strong tropical wave now spinning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of intensifying over the next day or so; especially, after Hurricane Sally pushes farther inland, and it is likely to ominously meander around the warm Gulf for awhile.
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Hurricane Sally continues to dump copious amounts of rain on the northern Gulf coastal region as it grinds its way northward now as a category 2 storm. Some spots in the region are likely to receive close to two feet of rain by the time it moves well inland. The remnants of Hurricane Sally will push towards the Carolinas over the next couple of days and then off the coast by the early part of the weekend. Meanwhile, a strong cold front approaches the region on Thursday from the northwest. The passage of the cold front on Thursday night will usher in the coolest air of the season so far with afternoon highs likely to be confined to the upper 60’s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. One final note, the sun was a brilliant orange/red early this morning in much of the Mid-Atlantic region as a result of an upper-level layer of smoke from all of the wildfires out in the western US.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of tropical activity today with two hurricanes, two tropical storms and three other waves extending far and wide from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Africa to the Northern Atlantic. Hurricane Sally remains over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico at mid-day and has slowed down to a crawl which will contribute to excessive amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days in the region from western part of Florida’s Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures this morning dropped to the lowest levels of the season so far with many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor bottoming out in the 40’s. And while there is plenty of sunshine today to go along with the cool conditions, the sun is dimmed in many areas by an upper-level of smoke from the western wildfires. An even cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend with Saturday’s highs likely confined to the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – well below-normal for this time of year.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues today with multiple systems on the scene from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to western Africa. Sally has intensified into hurricane status over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it is a very slow-moving system in an area of weak wind flow. As a consequence, Sally is going to be a major rain producer for the northern Gulf coastal region and some spots can receive up to two feet of rain over the next couple of days. By later tomorrow, this system will begin a push to the north and east, but it'll take a couple more days to reach the Carolinas as it'll remain a slow mover. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will be dropping southeastward at week's end and head towards the Mid-Atlantic region. This cold front will pass through by later Friday ushering in the coolest air mass of the season so far. One final note, the sunshine today in the Mid-Atlantic region will be dimmed by high-level smoke from the wildfires as it has crossed the country from the western states.
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There are currently five systems in the Atlantic Basin that are characterized as tropical depression or greater and that high number hasn’t happened since September of 1971. Currently, there are three systems that are classified as tropical storms, Sally, Teddy and Vicky, and one hurricane, Paulette, which passed over the island of Bermuda earlier today. Tropical Storm Sally is a slow-moving system now over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it may end up producing up to two feet of rain during the next couple of days in portions of the northern Gulf coastal region. After landfall, the remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push to the north into southern Mississippi and then to the northeast through Alabama and Georgia – bringing some heavy rainfall along its path. The heaviest of the rain from Sally’s remains are likely to stay south of the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong cold front barrels from northwest-to-southeast towards the eastern seaboard. That cold front will usher in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during the upcoming weekend.
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Strong high pressure across south-central Canada will build to the east over the next couple of days and it will control the weather around here in the Mid-Atlantic region through at least mid-week. This Canadian high pressure system is the anchor to a chilly air mass for the middle of September and it will bring us some of the coolest conditions so far this season over the next few nights. Late in the week, the weather becomes more uncertain as the remains of what is now Tropical Storm Sally may become intertwined with a strong cold front that will be closing in from our northwest. It currently appears that the heaviest rains from the remnants of Sally will stay to our south over the Carolinas, but we'll have to monitor that threat over the next couple of days. Following the passage of the strong cold front, the coolest air of the season so far will push into the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during this upcoming weekend.
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