This will be quite an unsettled week in much of the eastern half of the nation which will include a daily shot of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Any storm that forms later today and tonight can be on the strong side with heavy rainfall. There will be a couple of frontal systems to deal with over the next few days, but the main player will be high pressure off the east coast which will continuously pump in very warm and humid air to the region. Temperatures will likely climb into the 90’s each day this week for afternoon highs and high dew points will make for quite uncomfortable conditions.
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Tropical Storm Elsa is situated near the coast of New Jersey this morning and continues to accelerate to the northeast. Heavy rain pushing through upstate New Jersey and the NYC metro region will wind down later this morning, but an advancing cold front will bring scattered afternoon thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region. The weekend begins with a comfortably warm and likely rain-free day, but a stalling frontal system will bring an unsettled weather pattern here for the first half of next week.
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“Elsa” has maintained its status at mid-day as a tropical storm while pushing northeastward over the Carolinas and on the way to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. It should reach a position over the Delmarva Peninsula by later tonight and then move to over southern New Jersey by the wee hours of Friday morning. This storm will bring heavy rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region along with possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms; especially, along coastal sections where isolated tornadoes are possible. Highest wind gusts in the overnight hours will be along coastal sections from the Delmarva Peninsula-to-New Jersey-to-Long Island.
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Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall yesterday in the northern Gulf coastal region of Florida and will push northeastward today through the Carolinas. This storm will cross over the Delmarva Peninsula and into the southern part of New Jersey by the wee hours of the Friday morning bringing with it some heavy rainfall and possible strong thunderstorms to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The timetable for the heavy rainfall here will be from later this afternoon into early Friday with 1-3 inches on the table north and west of the District and 2-4 inches to the south and east of there and isolated higher amounts are possible...watch out for localized flooding. Winds in this part of the Mid-Atlantic will likely be highest across the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula with gusts of 50+ mph possible. By later Friday, the remains of Elsa will head to the eastern part of New England and then ultimately to near Nova Scotia Canada by the early part of the upcoming weekend.
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“Elsa” is a strong tropical storm this morning and has reached Florida’s northern Gulf coast. The tropical storm actually reached hurricane status late yesterday, but has since dropped just below that level with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph as it heads northward at 14 mph. Tropical Storm Elsa will cross the northern part of Florida later today and then take a turn more to the northeast by early Thursday as it moves over the southeastern states. Tropical Storm Elsa will then likely reach the Delmarva Peninsula region of the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday and bring with it an enhanced chance of heavy rainfall to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Thursday into early Friday. By later Friday, the remains of Elsa will likely reach the eastern part of New England and then ultimately to near Nova Scotia Canada by early Saturday.
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“Elsa” is now a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and will make landfall later this morning on the northern Gulf coast of Florida. It will then cross the northern part of the Sunshine State and reach the Georgia/South Carolina border region by early tomorrow. After that, “Elsa” will turn to the northeast and through the eastern states likely reaching the Delmarva Peninsula region by early Friday enhancing the chance for showers/storms and heavy rainfall in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. From there, the remains of “Elsa” could move to eastern New England by later Friday and then to near Nova Scotia (Canada) by early Saturday.
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“Elsa” is a strong tropical storm that is on the verge of reaching hurricane status as it pushes slowly northward just off Florida’s southwest coastline. It is having significant impact in the state of Florida and is likely to have an impact later in the week all the way up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. In the short-term, a very unstable atmosphere could bring severe thunderstorms to the northern Mid-Atlantic later today and tonight in this hot and humid air mass.
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It’ll turn hot and humid for the next couple of days in the Mid-Atlantic region with a chance for showers and thunderstorms late today, tonight and again on Wednesday. Given the expected high and humidity, any thunderstorm that forms during the next 48 hours can be on the strong side with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. “Elsa” is a strong tropical storm this morning near the Florida Keys and has slowed down from its rapid movement during the weekend. This system will ride up to the north today just off the west coast of Florida and then cross northern Florida on Wednesday. After that, the remains of “Elsa” will likely turn to the northeast and move up along the eastern seaboard – perhaps to a position by late Thursday over the Delmarva Peninsula or southern New Jersey. Any impact here from “Elsa” would come from later Thursday into Thursday night with the potential of an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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A cold frontal system has stalled out near the east coast and this will keep it unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region through tonight with additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. An upper-level low will move directly overhead by tomorrow and this will continue to result in unsettled conditions with threat of showers as we begin the holiday weekend. A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled for Sunday, July 4th, but the weather should improve some by then and then the off-day on Monday, July 5th, is likely to feature the most sunshine of the 3-day weekend and also the warmest conditions with highs at least well up in the 80’s. Elsewhere, “Elsa” has reached hurricane status this morning and threatens Hispaniola (especially on the Haiti side), Jamaica and Cuba later this weekend and then the SE US/Gulf of Mexico early next week…stay tuned.
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It’s never easy to break the back of a heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic region and this one will be no different with the formation of strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the transition and there will be torrential rainfall included in the mix. The threat for storms and heavy rainfall will continue into Friday as a slow-moving cold front works its way through the region. It’ll turn noticeably cooler on Friday and Saturday and the weather will stay unsettled as we begin the holiday weekend, but improvement will set in for Sunday and Monday.
Elsewhere, an impressive tropical wave that exited off of the west coast of Africa last week has strengthened into Tropical Storm “Elsa” and it will enter the Caribbean Sea later tomorrow. This system is likely to become an important player for the Caribbean islands of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic), Jamaica and Cuba later in the weekend and could threaten southern Florida early next week.
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