“Major” Hurricane Ida slammed into Louisiana on Sunday as a category 4 storm and the remnants will move slowly to the north today and then to the northeast over the next couple of days. A stalling frontal system will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and then will act as a pathway for Ida’s tremendous levels of moisture to push in here at mid-week. Significant rainfall will push into the Tennessee Valley over the next 24 hours and then reach the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Wednesday to early Thursday. Rainfall amounts of up to several inches is possible in the Mid-Atlantic region and given the already well saturated grounds, flash flooding is a strong likelihood in many areas. Cooler, drier air pushes in for the late week on the heels of the mid-week tropical rainfall event with highs generally confined to the 70’s.
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Hurricane Ida is making a run at Category 5 status in the remaining few hours before landfall along the southeastern Louisiana coastline. The latest observations of Ida include a well-defined eye, max sustained winds at 150 mph after rapid intensification of this system in the past 24 hours, and a northwest movement towards the Louisiana coastline. After landfall later today, Hurricane Ida will remain quite strong as it moves inland and it will gradually turn to the north in the nighttime hours and then take a turn to the northeast by mid-week. The post-landfall track will bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley and then to the Mid-Atlantic region/Northeast US in the Wednesday/Thursday time period.
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The Atlantic Basin remains active today with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one just to the south of western Cuba is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Tropical Storm Ida” will undergo rapid intensification this weekend once it gets past Cuba and out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The expected rapid intensification is likely to result in a “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) of Ida before it makes landfall likely in the northern Gulf coastal region late Sunday or Sunday night. After landfall, the remnants of Ida will turn north initially and then to the northeast and tropical storm conditions could exist all the way into the Tennessee Valley. This post-landfall track would bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley early next week – the last thing they need after recent flooding rains – and perhaps to the Mid-Atlantic region around mid-week.
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A cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic region later today and then inch its way through, but it’ll stall out right near here by early tomorrow. Its close proximity during the next 48 hours will likely result in numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms that form between later today and late tomorrow can be on the strong-to-severe side and any shower or storm can result in torrential rainfall...watch out for localized flooding. On the tropical scene, there is a serious threat for a powerful hurricane by later Sunday in the northern Gulf coastal region. This tropical system is likely to undergo rapid intensification and could attain “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a potential landfall late in the weekend. After landfall, the remnants of "Ida" are likely to turn to the north initially and then to the northeast and could bring significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region around mid-week.
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The Atlantic Basin remains quite active today with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one over the west-central Caribbean Sea is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Tropical Depression 9” can reach hurricane status by the early part of the weekend over the Gulf of Mexico and then perhaps close in on the western/central Gulf coast by later Sunday or Monday. There is even the chance that TD 9 undergoes rapid intensification and strengthens enough in coming days to reach “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher).
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High pressure will remain in control through tonight and then a cold front will arrive in the area on Friday. This front will not have much of a push behind it and is likely to stall out in the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Its proximity on Saturday and Sunday should bring us a bit of relief in the temperature department and there will continue to be a threat of showers and thunderstorms. On the tropical scene, there is a growing threat for a hurricane - perhaps even "major" - Louisiana coastal region by the early part of next week.
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The Atlantic Basin remains quite active as we push towards the end of August with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one over the Caribbean Sea is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Invest 99L” can reach hurricane status in coming days and perhaps threaten the Texas and/or Louisiana coastline by the early part of next week.
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High pressure will remain in control over the next few days resulting in plenty of sunshine around here to go along with hot and humid conditions. A cold front approaches the region late Friday and it is likely to stall out in the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Its proximity over the weekend could bring us a bit of relief in the temperature department. Temperatures are likely to reach into the low-to-middle 90’s during the next few days and then perhaps be confined to the upper 80’s for afternoon highs this weekend. On the tropical scene, there are signs for a possible hurricane in the Texas/Louisiana coastal region by Monday or so...something to closely monitor next few days.
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The remains of “Henri” will push away from the northeastern part of the country this morning and the next few days will feature hot and humid conditions in the DC metro region with high temperatures generally in the 90-95 degree range. By the end of the week, a cold front will close in from the northwest and its Friday night passage is likely to bring us a bit of relief for the upcoming weekend.
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The remains of Tropical Storm Henri will impact the Northeast US for another 24 hours or so with plenty of clouds, moisture and occasional showers and thunderstorms. This system will push off the coast tomorrow morning and the weather will turn hotter in the Mid-Atlantic region with high temperatures at or slightly above the 90 degree mark for much of the second half of the week.
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