There was a severe weather outbreak yesterday across the Deep South and Tennessee Valley and many of the same catalysts will move in the eastern states by later today. At the surface, strong low pressure will move from the Great Lakes into western Quebec and it’ll help to lift a warm front across our area paving the way for a surge in temperatures into the 70’s in many spots. This surge in temperatures will be aided by intervals of sunshine that should develop later today just ahead of a strong cold frontal system. This front will move from west-to-east and it’ll approach the I-95 corridor region by the end of the day.
In the upper atmosphere, a complex weather pattern will feature multiple jet streaks and numerous shortwaves - all leading to increasing upward motion later today/tonight centered right over the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers will be of the isolated-to-scattered variety for the bulk of the day; however, more numerous showers will overspread the region by the early evening hours. In addition, the threat for severe thunderstorm activity will increase as we go through the evening hours with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes on the table.
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*Strong-to-severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into the evening*
A strong cold front will push towards the east coast today and the result here will be a windy and much warmer day with gusts to 45 mph or so and temperatures surging to near 70 degrees. Showers will be rather scattered in nature through the bulk of the morning, but become more numerous later in the day. Rain later today into tonight can be heavy at times and there can be a severe thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture along with a continuation of the strong winds. It turns cooler on Friday following the passage of the cold front, but still somewhat unsettled, and more showers are possible by the second half of the weekend.
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Warmer air to our south and west will make an advance in this direction today and for awhile, it will be forced to ride up and over the cold air mass still in place. As a result of this “overrunning” process, there can be a bit of rain and/or ice early today, but it’ll turn much milder this afternoon and a plain rain shower is possible along with partial sunshine. By tomorrow, the warmer air will win out in its entirety and temperatures are likely to surge into the 70’s, but this dramatic warm up will come at a cost. Showers are likely to develop in the afternoon hours and the late day and evening could feature some strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity in the region as a cold front closes in on the eastern seaboard. The passage of this next cold front will result in a cooler air mass for Friday and highs will be near the 60 degree mark on both weekend days.
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A severe weather outbreak on Wednesday and Wednesday night is coming to the same part of the nation that was hit hard last week including the Deep South, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. One of the highest weather risks in this region will be for damaging wind gusts aided by strong jet streaks in multiple levels of the atmosphere. In addition, tornadoes may become rather numerous with many ingredients coming together in the atmosphere for rotation to form in many locations. The severe weather threat will shift to the eastern states on Thursday - albeit not quite as high - as a strong cold front pushes towards the coast and damaging wind gusts will again be on the table. Looking ahead, cold air outbreaks will likely continue for the central and eastern US into at least the middle of April and this will likely result in additional severe weather outbreaks.
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The unusual chill will stick around into early tomorrow and then much warmer air to our south and west will an advance in this direction. Initially, the warmer air will be forced to ride up and over the entrenched cold air mass late tonight and early Wednesday and this “overrunning” process can result in a bit of rain or ice. It should turn much milder tomorrow afternoon with a plain rain shower possible along with some partial sunshine. By Thursday, the warmer air will win out in its entirety and temperatures are likely to surge to 75 degrees in the DC metro region. This dramatic warm up on Thursday will come at a cost, however, as showers are likely and a strong-to-severe thunderstorm can form along and just ahead of incoming strong cold front. That same front may cause another outbreak of severe weather later tomorrow into Wednesday night across much of the same area that was hit last week (Deep South, Tennessee Valley). The passage of this next cold front will result in a cooler air mass around here for Friday and it remains on the cool side this weekend.
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This is quite impressive cold today in the Mid-Atlantic region with many spots likely to have a real struggle to reach the freezing mark for highs – very late in the season for that to occur. The combination of early morning “spring-strength” sunshine and very cold conditions aloft has quickly destabilized the atmosphere and numerous snow showers and heavier snow squalls will affect the Mid-Atlantic region during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Any snow shower or heavier snow squall can put down a quick accumulation and create dangerous driving conditions. Winds remain strong as well today from a northwesterly direction producing wind chills even lower than the unusually cold actual air temperatures. Unfortunately, it looks like the cold air outbreaks can continue into the middle part of April.
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The week will start off with temperatures far below-normal for the latter stages of March and afternoon highs confined to the mid-to-upper 30’s. In addition to the cold, the winds will remain quite strong producing even lower wind chills and snow showers are likely to become numerous in the Mid-Atlantic region during the mid-day and afternoon hours. The atmosphere will become quite unstable after a couple hours of “spring-strength” sunshine combined with the winter-like cold conditions aloft. Any snow shower or heavier snow squall can put down a quick minor accumulation during the mid-day or afternoon hours. Warmer air to our south and west will make an advance in this direction at mid-week and the initial overrunning of the cold air may result in a bit of rain, sleet or snow on late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Dramatically warmer air will win out by Thursday and there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
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In what seems to becoming more and more of an annual tradition, winter is going to make a comeback in early spring. Colder air will begin to make its presence felt later today in the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, in the upper part of the atmosphere where the freezing level will lower. As a result of the increasing cold air aloft, the atmosphere will become quite unstable and there will likely be “hit or miss” thunderstorms during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Given the lower freezing level aloft, hail or graupel (snow pellets) can be experienced in some areas during any gusty shower or thunderstorm later today. Winds will increase in strength tonight from the northwest and continue quite strong on Sunday and the passage of a secondary cold front will usher in very cold air for this time of year and below-freezing conditions for late Sunday night and late Monday night. There will be snow showers possible on Sunday associated with the secondary cold front and perhaps even a few heavier snow squalls for interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic..
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After a relatively mild day today, the weekend will turn progressively colder and NW winds will increase in strength following the passage of two cold frontal systems. With the arrival of the initial cold front on Saturday, the atmosphere will become very unstable and there is a good chance for some rain shower activity and maybe a rumble or two of thunder. It is also possible that ice pellets mix in with the rain at times as the colder air filters into the region. Temperatures on Sunday will be confined to the 40’s for afternoon highs and below-freezing conditions are likely late Sunday night and again late Monday night. It stays colder-than-normal on Tuesday and will have to watch for the threat for some rain, ice and/or snow at night or on Wednesday as warmer air tries to return.
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Occasional showers will be the rule around here through tonight as a secondary low pressure system forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. After a relatively mild day on Friday, the weekend will turn increasingly cold and NW winds will intensify following the passage of two cold frontal systems. With the arrival of the initial cold front on Saturday, there can be a few rain showers and perhaps even a bit of sleet or graupel (i.e., snow pellets) mixed in at times late in the day. Temperatures on Sunday will be confined to the upper 40’s for afternoon highs and below-freezing conditions are quite likely late Sunday night and again late Monday night. In fact, it stays quite a bit colder-than-normal for the latter part of March right into the middle part of next week.
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