Quite an active and somewhat unusual weather pattern is developing across North America and one that will feature multiple intense upper-level ridges of high pressure and deep troughs of low pressure. One result of this overall pattern will be a powerful storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later tomorrow into Wednesday. This storm will feature explosive intensification with as much as a 70 millibar drop in 24 hours of its central pressure yielding the strength of a “category 4” hurricane and easily classifying it as a “bomb cyclone”. Another significant storm system will develop in this active weather pattern during the late week bringing with it rain, accumulating snows, and a sustained period of strong winds across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.
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The first half of the new work week will be relatively quiet and mild, but the weather turns quite active later this week as a deepening upper-level trough dives into the Mid-Atlantic region. This strong upper-level trough will become a slow-mover thanks to strong blocking high pressure to the north over northeastern Canada. At the surface, an initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes in the late week time period and then a secondary low should form near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline.
The end result of this unfolding scenario should be occasional rain here from later Wednesday into Thursday morning and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Scattered rain showers are then possible on Thursday afternoon and evening as the atmosphere will remain quite unstable. In terms of temperatures, after a mild day on Wednesday ahead of the cold front, it turns noticeably cooler on Thursday and it’ll remain quite chilly on Friday with highs limited to the upper 40’s to close out the work week. The winds will become quite strong on the backside of this low pressure system from a northwesterly direction and should last all the from later Thursday through much of the upcoming weekend given the storm’s slow movement.
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The first half of the new work week will be relatively quiet and mild in the Mid-Atlantic, but the weather turns quite active later this week as a deepening upper-level trough slides into the eastern states. This strong upper-level trough will become a slow-mover thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north over northeastern Canada. At the surface, an initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes in the late week time period and then a secondary low should form near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. The end result of this unfolding scenario will be rain and possible thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Wednesday into early Thursday and then windy, colder conditions to follow for the next few days. Accumulating snow is likely during this event across interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic region from update PA to upstate NY, and interior New England can get hit hard as well by the end of the week.
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Low pressure moves off the Carolina coastline this morning and there will be gradual clearing across our region with an increase in winds from the northwest. High pressure ridging will edge into the area for the weekend leading to dry, cool conditions and winds will remain quite noticeable on Saturday as the pressure gradient remains strong between the departing low and the incoming high. Temperatures today will likely peak in the mid-to-upper 50’s for afternoon highs and then climb to or slightly above the 60 degree mark on both weekend days.
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It is not all that unusual for the “last hurrah” of an Atlantic Basin tropical season to be followed by an influx of winter-like cold into the central and eastern US and, in some cases, it is a “pattern-changing” type of event. One such example of this kind of scenario unfolded with Hurricane Sandy at the end of October during 2012 which was then followed by a colder-than-normal month of November in almost all areas east of the Mississippi River. (In fact, cold air not only followed Hurricane Sandy, but actually wrapped into it with as much as 3 feet of snow piling up in portions of West Virginia during that event). It appears that this tropical season may finally wind down after the ultimate demise of the latest system now over the Caribbean Sea and cold air intrusions into the central and eastern may become much more commonplace beginning late next week. The tropical system is likely to intensify into a named tropical storm (“Sara”) in the near-term, but an extended time period over land will likely reduce its potential impact on the US Gulf coast.
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A cool front and a developing low pressure system will approach the I-95 corridor from the west later today and they will combine to produce rainfall in the DC metro region from mid-to-late afternoon until late tonight. High pressure returns to the region for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday leading to a 3-day stretch of dry and cool weather conditions and the wind will be quite noticeable at times.
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It is not all that unusual for the “last hurrah” of an Atlantic Basin tropical season to be followed by an influx of winter-like cold into the central and eastern US and, in some cases, it is a “pattern-changing” type of event. One such example of this kind of scenario unfolded with Hurricane Sandy at the end of October during 2012 which was then followed by a colder-than-normal November in most areas east of the Mississippi. (In fact, cold air actually wrapped into Hurricane Sandy with as much as 3 feet of snow in West Virginia during that event). It appears a tropical system now forming over the Caribbean Sea may cross the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week and it then can take a turn to the northeast. Hopefully, this tropical system will weaken during its encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula and before a possible northeast turn towards the state of Florida. At the same time, cold air will be charging southeastward from Canada into the central states and other very impressive-looking cold shots are destined to work their way into the central and eastern states later in the month.
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Some of the lowest temperatures so far this fall season have greeted this early Wednesday morning with overnight lows along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor ranging from the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. It stays quite cool today despite plenty of sunshine and then temperatures drop to cold levels again late tonight. On Thursday, a front and its associated weak low pressure system will approach from the west and it will produce some shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region from later in the afternoon to early tomorrow night. The best chance of showers will come south of the PA/MD border in the region from DC-to-Delmarva Peninsula with nothing more than a shower or two likely across the Philly-to-New York City corridor. High pressure returns to the region for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday leading to a 3-day stretch of dry and cool weather conditions.
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A chilly air mass will flood the Mid-Atlantic region today on the heels of a frontal passage and it can lead to the coldest night of the season so far. Temperatures today will be limited to the middle 50’s for highs and then they’ll likely drop to near 30 degrees in the late night hours. In addition to the chill, winds will become quite a factor today with gusts up to 35 mph or so out of the northwest. Temperatures late tomorrow night are likely to fall to the lower 30’s and then clouds will dominate the skies on Thursday as the next front approaches and it can be accompanied by some rain shower activity.
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A cold front will cross the region today and then a secondary cold front pushes through early Tuesday with high pressure to follow for the mid-week. Temperatures will climb into the lower 70’s later today, but will be confined to the upper 50’s for highs on Tuesday and likely the low-to-mid 50’s on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures late tomorrow night/early Wednesday can drop the lowest levels so far this season with overnight lows near the 30-degree mark in many spots. Another frontal system arrives on Thursday and it can bring more showers to the region.
One final note, the record consecutive day dry streak at Reagan National Airport (DCA) ended yesterday at 38 days…besting the previous record of 34 days set in 2007.
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