Lingering showers this morning as a cold front works its way through the region and it’ll turn noticeably cooler for the remainder of the week following the unseasonably warm start on Monday and Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will take control of the weather by tomorrow and it’ll lead to excellent radiational cooling conditions later tomorrow night with clear skies and light winds. As a result, the first frost of the season is possible in some N/W suburbs by early Friday morning with overnight lows down in the 30’s.
Looking ahead to the weekend, strong low pressure will form over the western Atlantic Ocean and likely produce heavy rainfall and strong winds for the Carolinas. This system has an increasing chance of impacting the Mid-Atlantic region as well with some heavy rainfall and strong winds, but an “escape” to the east-northeast and away from the Mid-Atlantic coastline is still a scenario that is on the table. The time period of concern for the Mid-Atlantic region for rain and wind would be from Saturday night to Monday.
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Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region. It appears quite certain that this strong storm will then push far enough to the north to pound away at the coastal Carolinas with heavy rainfall and strong winds. It is a little less certain if this strong storm can then extend far enough to the north along the eastern seaboard to produce heavy rainfall and strong winds in the Mid-Atlantic region, but that scenario is certainly on the table. Whether this system becomes a named tropical storm by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is still too early to say; however, the effects could be much the same along coastal sections of the Carolinas and potentially to the Mid-Atlantic region...namely with heavy rainfall and strong winds...a kind of classic autumnal Nor’easter. Some of the key players involved include strong high-pressure ridging which will set up over southeastern Canada and a cold front that will slide to the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by the end of the week and help to act as a catalyst for the significant intensification of surface low pressure.
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Clouds will increase here today ahead of an approaching cold front which will bring us some beneficial rainfall from tonight into early Wednesday...perhaps a thunderstorm included in the mix. The unseasonably warm temperatures that started the week will be replaced by noticeably cooler conditions for the second half as Canadian high pressure takes control following the cold frontal passage. In fact, the first frost of the season will be possible on Thursday night in some far N/W suburban locations with overnight lows in the 30’s. Strong low pressure is likely to form over the western Atlantic Ocean later this weekend and threaten the Carolinas with some heavy rainfall and strong winds…potentially a threat northward into the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Low pressure is likely to rapidly intensify this weekend over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and it is a threat for heavy rainfall and strong winds along coastal sections of the Carolinas and potentially to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Whether this system becomes a named tropical storm is too early to say; however, the effects could be the same along parts of the eastern seaboard…namely with heavy rainfall and strong winds likely in the Saturday night to Monday time period. Some of the key players involved include strong high-pressure ridging which will set up over southeastern Canada and a cold front which will slide to the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later in the week and help to act as a catalyst for the intensification of low pressure.
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The main weather event of the next few days in the Mid-Atlantic region will be a cold frontal passage that takes places from later tomorrow night into the day on Wednesday. This front should be accompanied by showers and isolated thunderstorms that’ll break the dry spell of recent days. After a warm start to the work week with above-normal temperatures, cooler-than-normal conditions are likely during the second half. Low pressure off the eastern seaboard may become the main player to watch this weekend with the possibility of some rainfall around here by the time we get to Sunday and Monday.
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A cold front passed through the region last night, but will linger off the coast for awhile and create some unsettled conditions across the Mid-Atlantic for the next few days. As a result, clouds will be rather plentiful on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and a few showers cannot be ruled out on each day. Strong high pressure will build into southeastern Canada early next week and we’ll have to monitor the movement of tropical systems over the western Atlantic for potential impact along the east coast.
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The Atlantic Basin is quite active with three tropical systems of note as we head towards the end of September. There is a newly named Tropical Storm Humberto situated to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, a likely-to-be named Imelda which is now located near the Dominican Republic, and a weakening Hurricane Gabrielle in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. It is the likely-to-be named Imelda that may be of most concern at this point as it could threaten the Bahamas this weekend and potentially has a chance of impacting the Southeast US.
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Low pressure has developed in the Ohio Valley and it will push northeastward to New England during the next 24 hours or so riding along a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. The combination of the low pressure system and front will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region through tonight…some of the rain will be heavy and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe. The weather remains somewhat unsettled for Friday and the upcoming weekend with the chance of a few showers on each day.
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The Atlantic Basin is quite active as we head towards the end of September with three tropical systems currently on the playing field including a “major” Hurricane Gabrielle which is now racing off to the east-northeast and is no threat to the US. In fact, Hurricane Gabrielle could impact the Azores Islands and Portugal down the road in a weakened state after crossing over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the other two tropical systems pose more of a challenge in terms of forecasting their eventual paths and magnitudes. It appears quite likely that both systems will reach named tropical storm classification and potentially, both may climb to hurricane status. It also appears quite likely that these two systems will end up doing some sort of a dance around each other for awhile (“Fujiwhara effect”) and at least one may come uncomfortably close to the US east coast and we may not know the end of the story until we get ten or so days out from now.
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A cold frontal system will inch its way across the region today and stall out just to our south before pushing back to the north later tomorrow as a warm front. Low pressure will develop in the Ohio Valley on Thursday and push towards the northeastern states riding along the frontal boundary zone. Another cold front slides through at week’s end to be followed by high pressure which will gradually build back into the region during the upcoming weekend.
As a result of this combination of fronts and low pressure systems, more rain is coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this looks like a soaking rain event with an inch or more on the table. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely later today and then numerous showers and thunderstorms are on the way for later tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. There can be a few lingering showers on Friday and Saturday with plenty of clouds around and it should be generally dry on Sunday and Monday (one caveat on the expected generally dry conditions on Sunday and Monday…we will need to keep our eyes on a couple of tropical systems that should be over the western Atlantic this weekend).
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