Hurricane Dorian continues to move to the northwest and is still categorized as a category 1 storm with max sustained winds at 85 mph. There have been intermittent signs of a small inner eye in satellite imagery during the past few hours. As atmospheric and oceanic conditions become more favorable over the next few days, Dorian is likely to strengthen into “major” hurricane status as it begins a shift from northwest-to-west with intensifying upper-level ridging to the north. On this track, Dorian would approach the east coast of Florida on Monday or Tuesday – likely as a “major” – but all residents from the Carolinas to Georgia have to stay on guard as a last minute turn to the northwest/north cannot be ruled out before it ever even reaches Florida.
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Hurricane Dorian has pushed past the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands and is now over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for additional strengthening over the next few days and attainment of “major” hurricane status for Dorian is on the table. There will be a strong ridge of high pressure building over the western Atlantic later in the week which could push the system westward towards the east-central coast of Florida. In fact, there is a chance that the westward flow of air could push the system all the way across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico which would, of course, raise the possibility of a second hit on the US in the northern Gulf coastal region. There are some signs that the steering flow will weaken as Dorian nears landfall and this could cause a dramatic slow-down which could substantially increase chances for flooding. Stay tuned.
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All residents from North Carolina to Florida should closely monitor Tropical Storm Dorian over the next few days as it can have a major impact by later this weekend or early next week in any part of this region. Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened over the past 12-18 hours and has effectively fought off dry air over the Caribbean Sea. In addition, the current track will take the storm over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the near term – largely avoiding the island of Hispaniola which could have resulted in substantial weakening given its rugged terrain. Once TS Dorian makes it past the Caribbean islands and into the southwestern Atlantic, it’ll move over very warm waters and encounter more favorable environmental conditions (e.g., low wind shear) for intensification. If TS Dorian doesn’t reach hurricane status in the next several hours, it is very likely to in the next day or two once out over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and “major” (category 3+) hurricane status is certainly on the table in a few days.
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Tropical Storm Dorian has increased slightly in intensity over the past 24 hours and it is now headed towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The overall scituation is looking more ominous as the storm looks likely it'll avoid much interaction with Hispaniola and it has effectively battled the dry air over the Caribbean. Once it passes by the Caribbean islands, it'll move over very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic and intensification to hurricane status is quite likely. By the weekend, we could very well be dealing with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane closing in on the east coast of Florida, but all residents from the Carolinas to Florida should stay on guard.
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An upper-level trough has set up shop to our west and this has resulted in plenty of moisture for our area and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for another couple of days. On the tropical scene, a tropical system off the east coast will continue to push to the northeast over the next couple days and it could intensify into tropical storm status. Tropical Storm ‘Dorian’ has picked up slightly in intensity during the past 24 hours as it closes in on the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. It is likely to encounter some dry air over the next couple of days and could take a path near or over Puerto Rico and then the island of Hispaniola.
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After a quiet start to the month in terms of Atlantic Basin tropical activity, the last week of August is beginning with one tropical system over the western Atlantic Ocean and a tropical storm nearing the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Dorian is fast approaching the Windward Islands and it could become a hurricane once over the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean. There is currently some dry air over the Caribbean Sea out ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian which could limit its intensification prospects later in the week and its ultimate track will be quite crucial. A track over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola Island, for example, would likely weaken the system, but that is not a certainty at this point. Finally, the eventual path and intensification of the initial tropical system over the western Atlantic could, in turn, have an impact on TS Dorian depending on its movement and development in coming days.
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An upper-level trough has set up shop just to our west and this has aided in pushing deep moisture into our area and the result is likely to be more in the way of light-to-moderate rain and possibly a thunderstorm or two. In fact, the chances for rain will remain for the next couple of days as we turn quite warm again in northern Alabama. On the tropical scene, a tropical system off the east coast will continue to push to the northeast over the next couple days and it could intensify into tropical storm status. Tropical Storm ‘Dorian’ has picked up slightly in intensity during the past 24 hours as it closes in on the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean. Its maximum sustained winds are now up to 60 mph with movement to the west at 14 mph.
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A refreshing air mass for this time of year has arrived and the cold front that ushered in this change it is only slowing grinding its way through the region. As a result, occasional showers will continue this afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and some of the rain can come down hard at times. There can also be an embedded thunderstorm or two along the frontal boundary zone; primarily, to the south of the PA/MD border.
On the tropical scene, low pressure just east of the Upper Florida Keys at mid-day will slowly drift west over the next day or so which will move it over the Florida Peninsula and this should limit development. After that, this tropical system should push back to the northeast and over the western Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are running at warmer-than-normal levels. Consequently, this system should intensify later in the weekend and into the early part of next week - perhaps becoming the next named tropical storm or even a hurricane.
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A frontal system will drop southeastward into the Tennessee Valley today and it’ll keep it quite unsettled around here with the continuing threat of showers and thunderstorms. The good news is that the excessive heat of earlier this week will be replaced by a more comfortable air mass and highs will generally fall in the mid-to-upper 80’s range during the next several days.
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There is a refreshing air mass headed our way for this weekend and there are signs that there could be a repeat performance for next (Labor Day) weekend as well with both air masses backed up by strong high pressure to the north and west. The transition from today’s warmth and high humidity to below-normal temperatures will likely come with one more round of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms as the cold from arrives late this evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the front grinds its way through the region, but late tomorrow and much of the weekend will feature drier weather and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
On the tropical scene, low pressure will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next several days and given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not out of the question. Later next week or during the Labor Day weekend, there are signs for some potential activity over the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are quite warm as well.
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