While the remnants of Hurricane Sally produce heavy rainfall today from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic, attention is shifting to two other tropical systems of concern. One tropical system has been meandering over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in recent days and it looks like it will continue to do so for the next few days. As a result, it is very likely to soon intensify into named tropical storm status (would be called “Wilfred”) and it could ultimately have an impact pretty much anywhere on the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida. Meanwhile, Teddy has become a major hurricane over the central Atlantic and it is likely headed to near the island of Bermuda over the next few days. After that, the storm track forecast gets more complicated for Hurricane Teddy as it will encounter a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere with strong high pressure ridging over southeastern Canada and an upper-level trough over the Canadian Maritime Provinces. It is unclear as to whether this interaction will cause a turn to the northwest and perhaps towards northern New England/Southeastern Canada or if Hurricane Teddy will goes harmlessly out into the North Atlantic.
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The remains of Hurricane Sally have pushed to the northeast of here with the heaviest rains now extending from Georgia to the central part of Virginia. This system came ashore yesterday morning in the Gulf Shores, Alabama area as a category 2 hurricane and it has undergone significant weakening since making landfall. The tropics remain very active in the Atlantic Basin with multiple systems to still monitor in coming days including one impressive wave over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that will meander around for the next several days. This Gulf of Mexico tropical system has an excellent chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane in the near-term and could impact the Gulf coastal region sometime next week.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of activity today with three hurricanes, Sally, Paulette and Teddy, and each one of them is currently categorized as category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Sally continues to move painfully slowly in the northern Gulf region after making landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama and will likely end up producing more than two feet of rain in some spots before finally pushing away later tonight and Thursday. Hurricane Paulette continues to move rapidly away from the US in an east-to-northeast direction while Hurricane Teddy likely heads towards Bermuda and it could soon reach “major” hurricane status. In fact, Hurricane Teddy will have to be closely monitored in coming days as a strong blocking high pressure system develops over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic which may force this system to the northwest after passing over Bermuda (i.e., perhaps in the direction of northern New England). In addition, a strong tropical wave now spinning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of intensifying over the next day or so; especially, after Hurricane Sally pushes farther inland, and it is likely to ominously meander around the warm Gulf for awhile.
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Hurricane Sally is now a category 2 storm and will move inland later today and shift northeastward across southern Alabama. It continues to move very slowly at only 3 mph and dump a tremendous amount of rainfall on the northern Gulf region from the western part of Florida's Panhandle to Mobile Bay, Alabama. In fact, some spots could see upwards of two feet of rain in this region by later tonight. The remnants of Hurricane Sally will move slowly over the next couple of days finally reaching the Carolinas by late Friday.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of tropical activity today with two hurricanes, two tropical storms and three other waves extending far and wide from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Africa to the Northern Atlantic. Hurricane Sally remains over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico at mid-day and has slowed down to a crawl which will contribute to excessive amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days in the region from western part of Florida’s Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures this morning dropped to the lowest levels of the season so far with many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor bottoming out in the 40’s. And while there is plenty of sunshine today to go along with the cool conditions, the sun is dimmed in many areas by an upper-level of smoke from the western wildfires. An even cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend with Saturday’s highs likely confined to the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – well below-normal for this time of year.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues today with multiple systems on the scene from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to western Africa. Sally has intensified into hurricane status over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it is a very slow-moving system in an area of weak winds. As a consequence, Sally is going to be a major rain producer for the northern Gulf coastal region and some spots can receive up to two feet of rain over the next day or so. By later tomorrow, this system will begin a push to the north and east and it'll take until week's end for the remnants to reach the Carolinas. The timing of the heaviest rain associated with Sally's remnants in the Tennessee Valley will likely be late Wednesday into early Friday.
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There are currently five systems in the Atlantic Basin that are characterized as tropical depression or greater and that high number hasn’t happened since September of 1971. Currently, there are three systems that are classified as tropical storms, Sally, Teddy and Vicky, and one hurricane, Paulette, which passed over the island of Bermuda earlier today. Tropical Storm Sally is a slow-moving system now over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it may end up producing up to two feet of rain during the next couple of days in portions of the northern Gulf coastal region. After landfall, the remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push to the north into southern Mississippi and then to the northeast through Alabama and Georgia – bringing some heavy rainfall along its path. The heaviest of the rain from Sally’s remains are likely to stay south of the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong cold front barrels from northwest-to-southeast towards the eastern seaboard. That cold front will usher in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during the upcoming weekend.
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The new work week begins with an active tropical scene in the Atlantic Basin including Tropical Storm Sally which is slowly moving to the west-to-to-northwest over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This system has a good chance to intensify into a hurricane over the next 6-12 hours as it churns slowly towards the northern Gulf coastal region. Sally is likely to reach southeastern Louisiana or southern Mississippi in the overnight hours and it’ll remain quite a slow moving system. As a consequence, there is the potential for substantial rainfall amounts in the northern Gulf region from southeastern Louisiana to the western part of Florida’s Panhandle – perhaps on the order of one to two feet. After landfall, this system will head inland and push to the north and east bringing heavy rainfall to the Tennessee Valley in the late Wednesday to early Friday time period. Stay tuned.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues as we reach the middle part of September with multiple systems on the scene extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. One of these systems is currently categorized as a hurricane, “Paulette”, and it is likely to impact Bermuda in the near-term. There are two tropical storms in the mix including “Rene” in the central part of the tropical Atlantic and “Sally” now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Sally is of great concern to the northern Gulf coast region as it could slow down near and after landfall - potentially resulting in substantial rainfall amounts of more than a foot by the middle of the week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push inland at mid-week bringing significant rains to the south-central states and then into the Carolinas.
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It’ll stay hot around here for one more day with high pressure to our east and low pressure to our west. Temperatures are likely to reach the lower 90’s for afternoon highs, but will begin a slow downward trend later this weekend. In fact, highs may be confined to the lower 80’s by the time we get to the middle of next week. There is enough moisture in the region for a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms with a focus on the afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, the tropics remain very active in the Atlantic Basin with multiple waves to monitor in coming days.
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