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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

7:00 AM | *Drier pattern of recent days coming to an end*

Paul Dorian

Clouds will increase today as some moisture pushes into the region from the moisture field of Tropical Storm Beta. In fact, it’ll be much more humid by later today and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase along with the humidity. The atmosphere will remain rather tropical as we head through the latter part of the week and an upper-level trough approaches from the northwest.

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7:00 AM | *A bit warmer for the second half of the week and more unsettled*

Paul Dorian

Strong high pressure to our north continues to be the main player for the Tennessee Valley as it extends from the Great Lakes region to the northern Atlantic. As a result, we’ll have plenty of sunshine again today with comfortable conditions, but it’ll turn a bit warmer for the second half of the week and more unsettled. As that same high shifts eastward, a southwesterly flow of air will develop around here at mid-week and moisture will be on the rise. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will also increase in the Tennessee Valley and it may turn rather wet around here towards the end of the week.

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7:00 AM | *Quite a comfortable start to the week*

Paul Dorian

Strong high pressure extends from the central US to the northern Atlantic as we begin the new work week and it will remain the dominate player around here for the next few days. As a result, we’ll have plenty of sunshine for today and tomorrow and dry weather to mid-week. Temperatures will be quite comfortable with highs in the 70’s both today and Tuesday and then we’ll warm for the second half of the week.

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1:00 PM (Fri) | *Get out the Greek alphabet…”Wilfred” has been taken…Hurricane Teddy to effect Bermuda then it may directly impact Nova Scotia…Gulf system continues to meander...a threat for Texas*

Paul Dorian

Tropical Storm Wilfred has formed in the eastern Atlantic and that has now exhausted the list of hurricane names for the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. As a result, the Greek alphabet will be used from here on out with the next named system to become “Alpha” and this may be the tropical wave that has been meandering over the western Gulf of Mexico in recent days. The last time the Greek alphabet had to be used for the naming of tropical storms was the very active year of 2005. Meanwhile, Hurricane Teddy has intensified into a category 4 “major” storm over the central Atlantic and it will likely effect Bermuda late in the weekend and then it may have a direct impact on Nova Scotia, Canada as an unfolding blocking pattern in the atmosphere changes its course.

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7:00 AM | *A cooler, dry pattern setting up for the Tennessee Valley*

Paul Dorian

A cool, dry air mass will surge into the region later today and this combined with some cloud cover will keep afternoon highs confined to the middle 70’s. In fact, temperatures will remain rather comfortable this weekend and going into the first half of next week with a touch of fall in the air. It stays relatively dry through this upcoming dry and cool period and overnight lows could drop to the lowest levels so far this season with mid-to-upper 50’s possible in some spots. Meanwhile, the tropics remain very active and we’ll be monitoring an impressive and trouble system over the Gulf of Mexico which will meander around for several days.

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2:15 AM (Thursday) | *Now monitoring troublesome tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and “major” Hurricane Teddy*

Paul Dorian

While the remnants of Hurricane Sally produce heavy rainfall today from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic, attention is shifting to two other tropical systems of concern. One tropical system has been meandering over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in recent days and it looks like it will continue to do so for the next few days. As a result, it is very likely to soon intensify into named tropical storm status (would be called “Wilfred”) and it could ultimately have an impact pretty much anywhere on the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida. Meanwhile, Teddy has become a major hurricane over the central Atlantic and it is likely headed to near the island of Bermuda over the next few days. After that, the storm track forecast gets more complicated for Hurricane Teddy as it will encounter a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere with strong high pressure ridging over southeastern Canada and an upper-level trough over the Canadian Maritime Provinces. It is unclear as to whether this interaction will cause a turn to the northwest and perhaps towards northern New England/Southeastern Canada or if Hurricane Teddy will goes harmlessly out into the North Atlantic.

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7:00 AM | *Now monitoring another troublesome tropical system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico*

Paul Dorian

The remains of Hurricane Sally have pushed to the northeast of here with the heaviest rains now extending from Georgia to the central part of Virginia. This system came ashore yesterday morning in the Gulf Shores, Alabama area as a category 2 hurricane and it has undergone significant weakening since making landfall. The tropics remain very active in the Atlantic Basin with multiple systems to still monitor in coming days including one impressive wave over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that will meander around for the next several days. This Gulf of Mexico tropical system has an excellent chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane in the near-term and could impact the Gulf coastal region sometime next week.

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10:05 AM (Wednesday) | *Hurricane Sally inches its way inland and continues to produce tremendous rainfall amounts on the northern Gulf coastal region*

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin remains full of activity today with three hurricanes, Sally, Paulette and Teddy, and each one of them is currently categorized as category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Sally continues to move painfully slowly in the northern Gulf region after making landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama and will likely end up producing more than two feet of rain in some spots before finally pushing away later tonight and Thursday. Hurricane Paulette continues to move rapidly away from the US in an east-to-northeast direction while Hurricane Teddy likely heads towards Bermuda and it could soon reach “major” hurricane status. In fact, Hurricane Teddy will have to be closely monitored in coming days as a strong blocking high pressure system develops over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic which may force this system to the northwest after passing over Bermuda (i.e., perhaps in the direction of northern New England). In addition, a strong tropical wave now spinning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of intensifying over the next day or so; especially, after Hurricane Sally pushes farther inland, and it is likely to ominously meander around the warm Gulf for awhile.

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7:00 AM | ***Hurricane Sally now a category 2 storm pushes slowly inland later today...continues to produce tremendous rainfall amounts in the northern Gulf coastal region***

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Sally is now a category 2 storm and will move inland later today and shift northeastward across southern Alabama. It continues to move very slowly at only 3 mph and dump a tremendous amount of rainfall on the northern Gulf region from the western part of Florida's Panhandle to Mobile Bay, Alabama. In fact, some spots could see upwards of two feet of rain in this region by later tonight. The remnants of Hurricane Sally will move slowly over the next couple of days finally reaching the Carolinas by late Friday.

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11:15 AM (Tuesday) | *Hurricane Sally has slowed down to a crawl…two feet of rain possible in some spots next couple of days…wildfire smoke makes it all the way to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US*

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin remains full of tropical activity today with two hurricanes, two tropical storms and three other waves extending far and wide from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Africa to the Northern Atlantic. Hurricane Sally remains over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico at mid-day and has slowed down to a crawl which will contribute to excessive amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days in the region from western part of Florida’s Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures this morning dropped to the lowest levels of the season so far with many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor bottoming out in the 40’s. And while there is plenty of sunshine today to go along with the cool conditions, the sun is dimmed in many areas by an upper-level of smoke from the western wildfires. An even cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend with Saturday’s highs likely confined to the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – well below-normal for this time of year.

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