There is slight chance of showers and thunderstorms later today in the Tennessee Valley, but an even better chance comes later tomorrow when a cold front arrives in the region. Once this front passes by, the weather will turn nice again across northern Alabama with generally comfortably conditions and plenty of sunshine for the latter part of this shortened work week and also likely during the upcoming weekend as well.
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High pressure ridging across the mid-section of the nation will expand eastward during the next couple of days and generate dry weather for the region. Temperatures will climb each day to warm levels, but the overnights will be quite comfortable and no excessively hot weather is in sight.
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The remnants of Hurricane Ida will continue to produce rainfall around here today and some of it will be heavy at times. The threat for localized flash flooding will be highest during thunderstorm activity which will have the potential of producing torrential downpours. The remains of Ida will push to the northeast on Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing substantial rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. A cooler and drier air mass will follow the departure of the tropical system around here for the mid and late week time periods.
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Hurricane Ida came ashore on Sunday in southern Louisiana as a strong category 4 storm following rapid intensification in the prior 24 hour period. Substantial rain fell yesterday and last night in the Gulf coastal region and damaging wind gusts knocked out power for over a million people as of earlier today including all of New Orleans. Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm, but its impact is far from over.
A major rain event associated with the remnants of Ida is coming first to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and then to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Wednesday into early Thursday. In fact, there will be a tendency for the tropical system to be “re-invigorated” in the Mid-Atlantic region as it interacts with an upper-level jet and a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. A swath of significant rainfall amounts of up to several inches will take place during the next 72 hours all along the post-landfall track of Ida extending from the southern states to the Northeast US and flooding will be a big concern all along the path. In addition to the heavy rain threat, severe weather will be on the table including the possibility of tornadic activity on the eastern side of the storm track.
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“Major” Hurricane Ida slammed into Louisiana on Sunday as a category 4 storm and the remnants will move slowly to the north today and then to the northeast over the next couple of days. This will bring an extended period of moderate-to-heavy rain to the Tennessee Valley from later tonight into tomorrow night. The threat for flash flooding around here will be highest during any thunderstorm activity in this timeframe which will have the potential of torrential downpours and significant rainfall amounts of up to several inches. A cooler and drier air mass will follow the tropical rainfall event for the mid and late week time periods.
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Hurricane Ida is making a run at Category 5 status in the remaining few hours before landfall along the southeastern Louisiana coastline. The latest observations of Ida include a well-defined eye, max sustained winds at 150 mph after rapid intensification of this system in the past 24 hours, and a northwest movement towards the Louisiana coastline. After landfall later today, Hurricane Ida will remain quite strong as it moves inland and it will gradually turn to the north in the nighttime hours and then take a turn to the northeast by mid-week. The post-landfall track will bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley and then to the Mid-Atlantic region/Northeast US in the Wednesday/Thursday time period.
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The Atlantic Basin remains active today with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one just to the south of western Cuba is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Tropical Storm Ida” will undergo rapid intensification this weekend once it gets past Cuba and out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The expected rapid intensification is likely to result in a “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) of Ida before it makes landfall likely in the northern Gulf coastal region late Sunday or Sunday night. After landfall, the remnants of Ida will turn north initially and then to the northeast and tropical storm conditions could exist all the way into the Tennessee Valley. This post-landfall track would bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley early next week – the last thing they need after recent flooding rains – and perhaps to the Mid-Atlantic region around mid-week.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains quite active as we end the work week with two systems out over the open waters of the ocean and a third system over the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea. It is this third system now over the Caribbean that is of most concern as it presents a big threat of a powerful hurricane by later Sunday for the northern Gulf coastal region. This tropical storm ("Ida") is likely to undergo rapid intensification this weekend and could attain “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a potential landfall late in the weekend. The remains of "Ida" are likely to turn to north just after landfall and could bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley early next week - something that is certainly not needed.
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The Atlantic Basin remains quite active today with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one over the west-central Caribbean Sea is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Tropical Depression 9” can reach hurricane status by the early part of the weekend over the Gulf of Mexico and then perhaps close in on the western/central Gulf coast by later Sunday or Monday. There is even the chance that TD 9 undergoes rapid intensification and strengthens enough in coming days to reach “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher).
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High pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lose control around here today as an upper-level trough drift northward from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the chances for PM showers and thunderstorms will increase today and this threat will continue on Friday and each day this weekend. High temperatures are likely to be near the 90 degree mark for the end of the week and during the upcoming weekend. On the tropical scene, there is an increasing threat for a hurricane - perhaps even a "major" - by the early part of next week in the Louisiana coastal region.
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