A tropical wave that pushed off of Africa’s west coast several days ago has officially become tropical depression #13 in the Atlantic Ocean. This system is likely to reach named tropical storm status within 24 hours or so (will be named Lee) and very well could intensify to “major” hurricane status by the upcoming weekend. The overall environment will become increasingly conducive for intensification of the soon-to-be named tropical system in coming days as it continues on a long track across the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear will relax as an upper-level ridge builds nearby and it’ll move over very warm waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Looking ahead, it appears this system may push to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles - avoiding the Caribbean Sea - and then head on a course towards the US east coast as a “major” hurricane. Whether or not this developing tropical storm ever reaches the US east coast is simply too early to call.
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Strong high pressure continues to dominate the scene in the eastern part of the nation and it stays very warm around here with highs at 90+ degrees into mid-week. While today is likely to be rain-free, there will be the threat of showers and thunderstorms on both Wednesday and Thursday.
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There is a threat for a shower or thunderstorm today, but the weekend and the first half of next week look rain-free and increasingly warm in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures today should peak in the low-to-mid 80’s and then climb to the 90 degree mark from Sunday through Wednesday of next week.
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Drier air pushed into the region on Wednesday thanks in part to the remnants of Hurricane Idalia moving well to the east of here and it’ll stay comfortable today as well. In fact, while a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out on Friday, the stretch of weather from today into early next week looks generally rain-free and comfortably warm for the beginning of September.
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Hurricane Idalia makes landfall this morning as a “major” along Florida’s Gulf coast and will push to the northeast over the next 24-36 hours likely reaching the Carolina coastline by early Thursday. High pressure to our northwest will build into the Northeast US in this same 24-36 hour time period halting any northward advance of Idalia past the state of North Carolina. This same high pressure system will combine with the tropical cyclone to our east to push drier air into the Tennessee Valley featuring comfortable temperatures as we wind down the month of August.
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Hurricane Idalia continues to intensify today as it encounters more favorable environmental conditions with diminished wind shear and it is likely to attain “major” classification of category 3 or higher before making landfall early tomorrow along Florida’s Gulf coast. Hurricane Idalia will then turn northeast, weaken slowly, and push towards the Carolina coastline as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure ridging aloft to its west and north. As a result of the developing widespread upper-level ridge, Idalia will likely meander over the western Atlantic Ocean for several days and there is even an outside chance that it could loop back around to revisit Florida in a weakened state about a week from now. Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin maintains status as a category 4 “major” system. It will pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday bringing tropical storm conditions to the island. After that, Hurricane Franklin will push northeastward to the open waters of the North Atlantic as southwesterly flow ahead of an incoming upper-level trough steers it in that direction.
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Hurricane Idalia will likely strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and it could reach “major” hurricane status before landfall along Florida’s Gulf coast early Wednesday. After that, Idalia will push towards the GA/SC coastal region and then ultimately to a position just off the Carolina coastline. This tropical cyclone will actually help to dry out our atmosphere on Wednesday after another volatile day today that likely features additional showers and storms across the region.
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Franklin has climbed to category 4 “major” hurricane status and will fortunately spend its time in the foreseeable future over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. While it does bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda early Wednesday, a deep trough moving off the NE US coastline will help to steer it northeastward and out to the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, “Idalia” has reached strong tropical storm status today and is knocking on the doorstep of being declared a full-fledged hurricane. Tropical Storm Idalia will spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, begin an intensification process, and likely reach the Gulf coast region of Florida early Wednesday to the north of the Tampa Bay region.
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Last week featured very hot weather across the Tennessee Valley with highs well up in the 90’s on most days, but the week ahead will be quite different. In fact, high temperatures look to be confined to the low-to-mid 80’s for much of the week although it’ll be unsettled as well with the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, the showers today can be heavy at times and there can be thunderstorms mixed into the picture. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Idalia has begun intensification over the NW Caribbean and it is likely to heads towards Florida’s Gulf coast by mid-week and, ultimately, may actually bring drier air into the northern part of Alabama after another volatile day on Tuesday.
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Very strong upper-level high pressure ridging continues to be centered over the central states and the impact here is a continuing intense heat wave that has been accompanied by uncomfortably high humidity levels. This system will slowly retrograde westward in coming days likely re-positioning over the Four Corners region by the middle of next week. As such, the intense heat around here will begin to back off later this weekend and the improvement will continue early next week. In fact, high temperatures are likely to be confined to the 80’s by Monday and Tuesday and likely quite comfortable by the middle of next week.
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