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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

*Stratospheric warming to result in additional cold air outbreaks Great Lakes-to-Northeast US...baseball season gets fully underway on Thursday (3/27) with plenty of cold weather early season games*

Paul Dorian

An on-going stratospheric warming event that began in late February increases the chance for additional cold air outbreaks as we wind down the month of March from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In fact, the typical lag time between a stratospheric warming event over the polar region and its impact on US temperature patterns suggests there may very well be cold air outbreaks to deal with in this part of the country at least until the middle of April. As it turns out, big-league baseball gets underway in earnest in one week’s time on Thursday, March 27th, and the early part of the season may feature plenty of cold weather games thanks in large part to the on-going big-league stratospheric warming event. In addition, the influx of colder-than-normal air masses in coming weeks keeps hope alive across the northern states for those wishing for more snow...yes, even though spring season is now officially underway.

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7:00 AM | *Sharply colder today following the passage of a strong cold front*

Paul Dorian

On the back side of a strong cold front, temperatures today will do no better than the upper 40’s for highs compared to the upper 70’s on Wednesday. The winds will be quite strong as well with gusts up to 30 mph possible from a northwesterly direction. It turns milder on Friday and the weekend should feature highs near 70 degrees on Saturday and near 75 degrees on Sunday afternoon.

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7:00 AM | *Warmer today and then the next cold front can bring showers here late tomorrow/tomorrow night and even a strong thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

After the active weather of the past weekend, the week started off on the cool side, but temperatures this afternoon should reach more comfortable levels and peak near the 70-degree mark. The warm weather conditions will continue on Wednesday, but there will be a chance of PM showers as a cold frontal system heads in this direction. On the back side of the front, temperatures on Thursday are likely to be confined to the lower or middle 50’s for highs despite plenty of sunshine in the area.

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6:15 AM | *****Severe weather threat comes in two time frames...late tonight into mid-morning on Saturday...mid-day Saturday into Saturday evening*****

Paul Dorian

A powerful low pressure system will form in the central Plains on Friday and take a northeastward track towards the western Great Lakes region. There will be strong support in the upper-atmosphere for this system and a second strong upper-level low will slide eastward across the southern states on Saturday morning and then turn northeast to the Tennessee Valley. This southern system will combine with multiple jet streaks to help destabilize the atmosphere here from late tonight through tomorrow evening.  As a result, showers and thunderstorms are likely here from late tonight into Saturday night and some of the thunderstorms can reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts and strong tornadoes on the table. The greatest chance for severe weather may be in two different time frames…one being late tonight between 1 and 7am and the second from mid-day Saturday to late evening Saturday...stay tuned to all local warnings.

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****An intense storm system and a multi-day severe weather threat from the central US to the east coast****

Paul Dorian

Numerous ingredients are coming together for what is likely to be a multi-day severe weather event from the central US to the east coast during the period from later Friday to Sunday night. These ingredients include not just one, but two strong upper-level lows, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, an influx of warm, humid air on the storm’s front side, and a surface low pressure system that will deepen to rarely ever seen barometric pressure levels as it moves from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. All severe weather parameters are on the table during this multi-day event including swaths of intense and damaging winds, strong tornadoes, hail, and torrential rainfall that can result in flash flooding.

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7:00 AM | ***Severe weather threat here from late Friday night through Saturday night***

Paul Dorian

A powerful low pressure system will form in the central Plains on Friday and take a northeastward track towards the western Great Lakes region. There will be strong support in the upper-atmosphere for this system and a second strong upper-level low will slide eastward across the southern states on Saturday morning and then turn northeast to the Tennessee Valley. This southern system will combine with multiple jet streaks to help destabilize the atmosphere from late Friday night through Saturday evening.  As a result, showers and thunderstorms are likely here from late Friday night into Saturday night and some of the thunderstorms can reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts and strong tornadoes on the table.

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