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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

***Significant severe weather threat next couple of days associated with powerful cold front...southern Plains to Upper Midwest later today...Lower MS Valley to Mid-Atlantic later tomorrow***

Paul Dorian

A significant severe weather threat exists for later today and tonight in the region from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest and this risk which includes possible tornadoes will shift east later tomorrow to an area that extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region. Numerous ingredients are coming together for this severe weather threat including a powerful surface cold front, warm and humid air in place, waves of energy aloft in both the northern and southern jet streams, and an incoming colder-than-normal air mass. After possible record-breaking warmth during the next two days in the Mid-Atlantic region, it’ll turn much cooler for Thursday and Friday following the passage of the strong cold front, and a widespread colder-than-normal air mass will push into the eastern states early next week.

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6:00 AM | *Very warm, unsettled next couple of days with highs near 80 degrees and the chance of showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern looks to stay very mild and unsettled for the next couple of days with afternoon highs near 80 degrees and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. It turns noticeably cooler on Thursday following the passage of a cold front, but temperatures rebound quickly and comfortably warm weather is on the table for Friday and the upcoming weekend.

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6:00 AM | **Showers from time-to-time this weekend and maybe even a strong-to-severe thunderstorm**

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern looks to favor increasing warmth for the Tennessee Valley with high temperatures over the next couple of days in the lower 60’s and then 70 degrees will be possible by early next week. The weather will be somewhat unsettled as well during the next few days with showers possible from time-to-time and a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

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**Southern storm to produce widespread rain this weekend in the Deep south and a severe weather threat...Mid-Atlantic region on the northern fringes by late Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A low pressure system that produced some beneficial rain and snow across California on Wednesday will ride along the newly activated sub-tropical jet stream and re-emerge over the south-central states early this weekend. Warm and humid air will flow northward into this system from the Gulf, and this will help to intensify and expand the storm’s precipitation shield...all good news for the Deep South where it has been quite dry in recent weeks. The influx of warm and humid air will also help to destabilize the atmosphere, leading to a severe weather threat by later Saturday and Saturday night in portions of the south-central US. This system will then push eastward and head towards the eastern seaboard on Sunday potentially bringing some mixed precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic region which will be on the northern fringes of its moisture field. Much milder weather will follow across the northeastern states by the middle of next week.

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**Changing weather pattern results in storm that impacts the western states during the next couple of days...southern states this weekend...and some impact possible in the Mid-Atlantic**

Paul Dorian

The polar jet has dominated the scene in recent weeks across North America resulting in numerous Arctic air masses being transported from western Canada into the northeastern states, but changes are underway as the sub-tropical jet is now showing plenty of life. This changing weather pattern will result in milder conditions across the northeastern states and some much-needed precipitation across the western and southern states after an extended dry stretch. The rejuvenated sub-tropical jet stream is pouring moisture today into southern California while an intensifying surface low pressure spins just off the San Francisco coastline. This system will produce some rain in low lying areas of the Golden State during the next 24 hours or so and significant accumulating snow in the mountains of eastern California.

By the early part of the weekend, this same low-pressure system will re-emerge over the south-central states and Gulf moisture will feed into its southeastern flank. As such, the moisture field will expand - good news for the Deep South where it has been dry - and the risk of severe weather will likely be put back in play in some areas. This system will then move in a general eastward direction and it can have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic region by the latter part of the weekend with mixed precipitation on the table. Much milder weather will follow in Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later next week after the passage of this storm system off the eastern seaboard.  

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