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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

***Not one, not two, but three very interesting tropical systems to monitor in coming days...two in the eastern Pacific and one in the Gulf which may become the Atlantic Basin's 1st hurricane***

Paul Dorian

All in all, this looks like a relatively quiet and dry week for the continental US, but tropical systems may change that in a big way by this weekend or the early part of next week. There are not one, not two, but three tropical systems that will have to be closely monitored in coming days...two in the eastern Pacific and one in the Gulf. The only one of the three systems that is currently named is “Rachel” which is a minimal hurricane in the eastern Pacific that is on a seemingly harmless westerly track during the next few days. After that, however, there are signs that “Rachel” will take a drastic turn from a westerly direction to northeasterly, and this could bring its moisture field into the southwestern US and potentially, well up to the north of there.

The second tropical wave in the eastern Pacific should strengthen in the near term to become a named tropical storm and potentially, it can attain classification as a hurricane. This trailing system is likely to turn into Mexico and ultimately, its moisture field can impact the southwestern or south-central states. Meanwhile, a tropical wave now over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of America can intensify into named tropical storm status and potentially into the season’s first hurricane for the Atlantic Basin as it pushes towards the northern Gulf region by the weekend…and potentially, well to the north of there.

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6:00 AM | *Unsettled today, but not quite as hot as recent days...comfortably warm weather on the way by the end of the week and upcoming weekend*

Paul Dorian

The weather remains unsettled today, but not quite as hot as recent days with afternoon highs in the lower 90’s and a chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. A slightly cooler and drier air mass will arrive at mid-week and we’ll be dealing with highs on the 80’s for the late week and weekend.

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6:00 AM | *Hot again today with highs in the upper 90's...manageable warmth later in the week*

Paul Dorian

The weather remains quite hot for the next couple of days with high pressure to our north in control. Temperatures today can peak in the upper 90’s and then the low-to-mid 90’s are on the table for tomorrow afternoon. It becomes more manageable later in the week with afternoon highs mainly confined to the low-to-mid 80’s from Wednesday to Saturday. As far as rain goes, there is the chance for showers and thunderstorms during the PM hours on Monday and Tuesday as well and some of the storms can be strong.

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***No hurricanes so far in the 2026 Atlantic tropical season and that puts us in rare territory...there are some signals, however, for activity going forward***

Paul Dorian

We have now reached rare territory for the Atlantic Basin due to the lack of hurricanes at this stage of the tropical season. In fact, this is the latest time without an Atlantic hurricane during the satellite era which began in 1966 and there is likelihood that one has to go all the way back to 1941 though confidence in the tracking of hurricanes is far less certain in the pre-satellite era. Having said that, an extremely quiet first half of the tropical season does not guarantee an uneventful second half…indeed, there are some signals that activity will pick up later this month.

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