Tropical Storm “Fred” is strengthening as it closes in on the Panhandle region of Florida and it could even reach hurricane status before making landfall this evening. “Fred” will weaken quickly after landfall in terms of its wind field; however, its tropical moisture field will push northward over the few days resulting in significant rainfall from the Gulf coast to Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. “Grace” has weakened (temporarily) to tropical depression status and is likely to take a track much farther to the south of “Fred” as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure over the western Atlantic. A third system over the Atlantic will tend to meander not too far from Bermuda and it could very well become Tropical Storm “Henri” in the near-term.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains quite active as we begin the new work week with Tropical Storm "Fred" and Tropical Depression "Grace" on the playing field. TS "Fred" should reach the western part of Florida's Panhandle by later tonight and then its moisture field will push northward into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. Tropical Depression "Grace" will likely take a more southerly route compared to "Fred" and end up out over the southern/western Gulf of Mexico.
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The Mid-Atlantic region remains quite hot and humid today and there is a chance for scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity from later in the day through early tonight. Today will be the last day of the oppressive heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic as a cool frontal system will usher in more comfortable air for the weekend; especially, by the time Sunday rolls around when afternoon temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 80’s and humidity will be much more bearable.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin remains quite active with two systems to monitor. The first system that was at one time classified as Tropical Storm “Fred” is now a “depression”, but it is likely to regain storm status again in the near future. This system will push towards the Florida Keys by early tomorrow then likely to a position over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, “Fred” will head towards the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle and it could intensify further before making a landfall sometime late Monday. A second system that is now over the central Atlantic is very likely to become Tropical Storm “Grace” and it is likely to take a more southerly track to its predecessor “Fred” and possibly end up in the southern/western Gulf of Mexico.
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“Fred” continues to push to the WNW today along the northern coast of Cuba and it rather disorganized. However, as it move well out over the open waters it is likely to intensify and close in on the Florida Keys by early tomorrow. After that, this tropical system is likely to head over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico and make an early Monday landfall in the Panhandle region of Florida.
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Tropical Storm “Fred” has weakened to a depression after an encounter with the high terrain of Hispaniola, but it is likely to strengthen again and head towards the southern part of Florida by the early weekend. After that, this tropical system is likely to move out over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and it could actually push northward next week right through the eastern states. One final note, the Perseid meteor shower peaks tonight so take a look outside should skies be cooperative.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become quite active with one named storm (“Fred”) just south of the Dominican Republic on the eastern side of the Caribbean island of Hispaniola and a second system intensifying in the eastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm “Fred” is likely headed to the Florida Keys by the early part of the weekend and then to the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are generally warmer-than-normal. TS “Fred” could then reach the Panhandle region of western Florida by early next week and the remains may then push northward through the eastern states later in the week. Meanwhile, the second Atlantic tropical system could end up taking a similar track as “Fred” – perhaps impacting the same northern part of the Caribbean.
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A tropical system near the Caribbean island of Hispaniola has intensified enough to be classified as a named storm ("Fred"). It is likely to impact southern Florida by the early part of the weekend and then spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico before perhaps reaching the panhandle region of western Florida on its way to the north. Longer term, it is quite possible that the remains of this tropical storm push northward through the eastern states and right along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains bringing rain with it later next week.
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After “Elsa” came ashore in northwestern Florida on July 7th, the tropical Atlantic experienced an extended quiet stretch of weather….that quiet stretch is now over. There are two tropical systems currently located in the central Atlantic and it is the frontrunner that is of increasing concern. This system is nearing the Caribbean Sea and it has a good chance of becoming a named (“Fred”) storm in coming days and could ultimately have an impact on southern Florida and then spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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High pressure will build into the eastern states early this week and become the dominate player for weather conditions across Florida. In addition to high pressure at the surface, strong ridging will form aloft over the Northeast US and this opens the door for tropical activity to move from east-to-west and towards the southeastern states. In fact, there are now multiple systems that have formed in the tropical Atlantic which will bear monitoring as we head towards mid-August.
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Upper-level high pressure will build over the northeast US and the southeastern part of Canada in coming days and this may open the door for east-to-west moving tropical activity as we head towards the middle of the month. The Atlantic Basin has been quiet in recent weeks, but signs point to a ramp up of activity over the next ten days or so with the build-up of high pressure to the north. In addition, there is a favorable signal from a teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation for tropical activity as it is headed into favorable “phasing” for the Atlantic Basin.
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