Matthew has intensified rapidly over the last several hours and is now classified as a major (category 3) hurricane. Matthew becomes the sixth major hurricane in the Caribbean Sea during the month of September since 1990 (Luis, Marilyn 1995, Georges 1998, Ivan 2004, Felix 2007). The latest measured maximum sustained winds of Matthew are 115 mph, central pressure has dropped to 968 millibars, and it is moving WSW at 12 mph. Matthew should continue to move on a general WSW-to-W track during the next 12 hours or so and then make a right turn later in the weekend. By Monday, the island of Jamaica could take a direct hit by Matthew and then the region from central Cuba to Haiti could be directly impacted as Matthew churns slowly to the north.
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The significant rain event that began last night in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue into the weekend and hardest hit areas could end up with several inches. Overnight rain was heaviest in the DC metro region where around two inches fell and flash flooding is a concern there for the next couple of days. In addition, those flash flooding concerns extend from the DC area eastward to the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey coastline and northward into southern Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Matthew continues to churn westward in the Caribbean Sea and it is likely to become classified as a hurricane shortly and perhaps could reach major hurricane status over the weekend. Later this weekend or early next week, Matthew is likely to make a sharp right turn and heads towards Cuba or Hispaniola. After that, there are a wide range of possibilities ranging from a direct hit on the US to an "out-to-sea" solution - all eyes in the eastern US should continue to monitor this intensifying storm.
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“Matthew” has officially been born and has quickly attained tropical storm status as it heads into the Caribbean Sea. This tropical system looks like it’ll be a slow-moving and major impact type of storm for the next week to ten days or so – perhaps even reaching major hurricane status – and the eastern US has to stay on guard. Meanwhile, of more immediate concern, a significant rain event is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days and there can be some serious flooding problems and hefty precipitation totals by the time the weekend begins; especially, in the region from southern Virginia to southern Pennsylvania which includes the entire DC and Philly metro regions.
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There are two big stories in the world of weather and both are covered in this discussion. First, an extended and significant rain event is headed to much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the period of late tomorrow into Saturday with the heaviest rain likely centered on tomorrow night into Thursday night. Some areas of the Mid-Atlantic region can end up with five inches of rain or more by the time the weekend begins. The second big story is the likelihood for a hurricane this weekend in the Caribbean Sea. In fact, the tropical system still known officially as Invest 97L could become a major hurricane at some point while moving westward over the warm Caribbean Sea waters. At some point early next week, this system is likely to take a turn towards the north or northwest and it could threaten anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to the US east coast - but those details will have to wait.
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It is now known officially as Invest 97L, but it soon could become “Matthew” and it is likely to head into the Caribbean Sea over the next few days and it will have to be monitored closely not only in that region, but also from the northern coast of South America to the Gulf of Mexico and eastern US. While currently this system is just an area of showers and thunderstorms, environmental conditions will become favorable for it to attain tropical depression status in the short term – and then potentially major hurricane status by the weekend in the Caribbean Sea.
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Tropical Storm Karl continues to churn to the west today in the central Atlantic Ocean and it could very well reach hurricane status by the early part of the weekend and be situated somewhere between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough of low pressure will be slowly pushing eastward to southeastern Canada at this time and this feature will become a crucial player in the eventual storm track of Karl. Latest computer model forecasts strongly suggest Karl will get influenced by the upper-level trough and driven to the northeast away from the US coastline; however, it still needs to be closely monitored as a small shift in the timing of weather systems can result in quite a different outcome.
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We have now entered the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season and there are three different systems to monitor over the next several days. To begin, an impressive tropical wave has now achieved “tropical depression” status in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and all indications are that it will strengthen to tropical storm status in the next day or two. In the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ian is moving northward and it appears to be no threat to the US mainland. Meanwhile, just offshore of the George/South Carolina border region, Tropical Storm Julia is moving very slowly and this poses a big problem in terms of rainfall for coastal Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of days. There is a chance that some of the moisture associated with “Julia” interacts with an eastward moving frontal system and enhances rainfall around here late in the weekend or early next week.
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The latest GOES-13 satellite image shows a widespread area of deep convection over the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rains continuing over western Cuba where there has been significant flooding. Tropical Depression #9 is likely closing in on "tropical storm" status and it will be investigated this afternoon by NOAA hurricane hunters to better determine its actual current strength. All indications are that intensification will take place over the next couple of days as vertical wind shear over the system decreases. Heavy rain on the order of 6-12" is possible from this system across portions of central and northern Florida later this week.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season is around the middle of September and tropical activity has certainly ramped up right on schedule. There are four different systems in the western part of the Atlantic Basin that bear watching over the next few days, an additional wave in the eastern Atlantic, and an impressive wave over the western part of Africa. The tropical system known last week as "99L" is now classified as a tropical depression (#9) and it could very well end Florida’s hurricane drought later this week. Another tropical depression (#8) is spinning towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it could reach tropical storm status over the next few days. The strongest system right now is Hurricane Gaston and it is located out over the open Atlantic and should not have any direct impact on the US. Meanwhile, a fourth system that is currently unnamed and unnumbered is noticeably spinning east of the Bahamas - and it too bears watching. The wave over the west coast of Africa will be something to watch closely over the next 10 to 14 days or so.
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The tropical system still officially known as "99L" is currently located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. An area of showers and thunderstorms has increased in intensity and coverage during the past few hours, but it still appears to be separated from the low-level circulation center just off to its west. However, even though the system is currently disjointed, there are some factors that are favorable for intensification in the near term and this is reason to continue to closely monitor the situation; especially, for those in Florida and along the entire Gulf coast.
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