Much colder air has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a cold frontal system on Wednesday. Meanwhile, another cold front is headed towards the east coast and this will be supported by vigorous upper-level energy. As a result, low pressure is likely to form on Thursday just off the New Jersey coastline and then rapidly intensify as it moves northeastward reaching Maine’s east coast as a powerful storm by early Friday morning. This storm will become a major snow producer for interior sections of New England by tomorrow night where more than a foot can pile up in portions of (inland) Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire – coastal New England will receive far less (e.g., 1-3 inches around Boston).
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Temperatures today are well above normal in the Mid-Atlantic region, but a cold frontal passage will usher in noticeably colder air for tonight and Wednesday. Another surface cold front will arrive in the I-95 corridor on Thursday supported by vigorous upper-level energy and this will set the stage for a rapidly intensifying low pressure to form along the Northeast US coastline. This system is likely to generate some snow in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (north of the Mason-Dixon Line) and ultimately, lead to a major snowstorm for much of New England. Following the departure of the Thursday storm, quite cold air will flood the region on Friday riding in on strong NW winds and there can be some snow shower activity in the I-95 corridor from Philly-to-NYC. In the longer term, there will likely be another warm up in the Mid-Atlantic region early next week; however, signs are growing for widespread cold to develop across most of the US as we progress towards the second week of January.
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There have been several significant Arctic air outbreaks during the past few weeks that have chilled the central and eastern US, but the overall upper-level pattern of recent days will undergo changes in the near term. The general result of these upper atmosphere changes will be milder weather in the Mid-Atlantic region as we heads towards the new year. There are reasons to believe that this change; however, will just be a temporary break in the cold for us and a colder weather pattern will very likely return in a couple of weeks.
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No doubt this is a very complicated forecast in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next five days or so as we’ll experience a deep freeze which will be followed by a rather rapid thaw which will then be followed by another freeze. In addition, there will be multiple systems that can impact us with accumulating snow, ice and/or rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday night/early Thursday and it’ll be even colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to be confined to the 20’s for highs and early morning lows on Friday could be in record-breaking territory in many parts of the Northeast US. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision could lead to significant snow and/or ice problems in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before an eventual late day changeover to plain rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll be colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to hold in the 20’s on both days and overnight lows by Friday morning could be record-breaking and bottom out in the single digits near New York City, near 10 degrees in the Philly metro region, and in the 10-15 degree range across DC. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision of moisture and retreating Arctic air could lead to significant snow and/or ice problems in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before a late day or nighttime changeover to plain rain.
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This December is a far cry from last year which ended up warmer-than-normal virtually throughout the entire nation. It has been colder-than-normal so far this year throughout a good part of the nation and another significant Arctic blast will cross the northern US this week - reaching the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday night and Thursday – and this blast will be colder than the last one.
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The coldest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region is keeping temperatures confined to the 30’s which is well below normal for this time of year and strong NW winds are creating even lower wind chills. This air mass is apparently just a teaser. There are signs that another Arctic blast will occur later next week and it looks even colder – maybe significantly so. In addition to the Arctic air masses, there are likely to be two or three snow threats next week. The first system could bring some snow to areas north of the PA/MD border late Sunday/Sunday night on the order of a coating to an inch or two and there can be some freezing rain involved with this eventThe second threat could bring some snow to the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday as the next Arctic cold front approaches. After that, there may be a third threat during the weekend of the 17th/18th as the late week Arctic blast begins to retreat.
The 12Z Euro 850 mb temperature anomaly loop from today through next Friday shows well the movement across the US of the next Arctic air outbreak. It arrives during the mid-to late week time period in this region and by Friday, the Northeast US could be very cold. More details in this afternoon’s video discussion.
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VENCORE WEATHER FEATURED ON WTKI RADIO; Paul Dorian, Vencore meteorologist, was interviewed on WTKI Radio in Huntsville, AL. Listen to the interview here.
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The flood gates appear to have opened up for multiple Arctic air masses to plunge from northwestern Canada/Alaska into the US over the next few weeks and this type of weather pattern will surely increase the odds for snow around here. By no means is there anything set in stone yet for the snow, but the unfolding weather pattern will be much more favorable compared to recent weeks. One Arctic blast is already being felt today across the northwest and north-central part of the country and will arrive here later tomorrow/tomorrow night. By Friday, temperatures will be confined to the 30’s for the afternoon highs, strong NW winds will produce even lower wind chill values, and there can be some snow shower activity. A second Arctic blast will drop out of Canada into the northern US early next week and it should arrive here during the middle of next week. Looking even farther ahead, there are signs for yet another (third) Arctic blast to follow as we progress into the second half of December.
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