Irma continues to track west-northwest this morning as a major hurricane - now at category 4 status - and is likely to maintain much of its strength over the next couple of days as it moves over very warm waters. Irma should move to a position quite close to the southern coast of Florida by early Sunday and then it is likely to turn north-to-northwest as deep upper-level troughing digs in over the Northeast US. This likely path will result in virtually the entire state of Florida experiencing hurricane conditions later this weekend and into early Monday as the hurricane crosses from south-to-north roughly over the center of Florida.
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Irma remains a category 5 “major” hurricane with max sustained winds at around 180 mph. It continues to move on a general WNW track and will likely reach the Florida Straits by the early part of the weekend. Strong high pressure ridging over the central Atlantic continues to steer Irma to the WNW, but an upper-level trough digging into the Northeast US this weekend will allow Irma to turn northward and ride up through the state of Florida.
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Hurricane Irma has intensified into category 5 status with max sustained winds at around 175 mph. It continues to move on a general westward track and it is looking increasingly likely that it will approach the Florida Straits by the weekend. Strong high pressure ridging over the central Atlantic continues to steer Irma to the west and it looks like this trend will continue for the next couple of days. While Irma can fluctuate between a category 4 and 5 hurricane over the next few days, unfortunately, there is no reason to believe it can weaken significantly in the near term.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around September 10th and that is right around the time the US east coast may be dealing with a big problem named Irma. Irma has strengthened rapidly in the eastern Atlantic to category 2 hurricane status and is likely to reach major hurricane status (i.e., category 3) by tonight or Friday. In fact, there are reasons to believe significant further strengthening will take place over the next several days and Irma could very well reach the highest category 5 status at some point in its lifetime. It is too early to tell if Irma will take a “southern” track towards the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico or more of a “northern” track towards the Bahamas and Southeast US, but in either case, it looks like it’ll become a powerful storm and a major problem.
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Tropical Storm Harvey has made a second landfall in southwestern Louisiana and is now about 30 miles to the north of Lake Charles with sustained winds at 45 mph. Meanwhile, Irma has formed in the eastern Atlantic and it could become a major hurricane in coming days. In fact, in about 10 days or so, Irma could become a big problem to deal with in the region of the Southeast US, Bahamas or northern Caribbean Sea – just too early to say. In about 5 days or so, there are some signs that another tropical system could form in the western Gulf of Mexico – the last thing that is needed in that area. Meanwhile, another very impressive tropical wave lurks right over the breeding grounds region of Africa and it could ultimately become another system to watch as it reaches the Atlantic.
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Harvey is now a strong category 2 hurricane and it is closing in on southeastern Texas near Corpus Christi. Hurricane Harvey will come to a grinding halt over the next couple of days and could very well be “forced” to loop back around over the open warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico due to a roadblock pattern in the upper atmosphere. As a result, there will be several days of torrential rainfall over southeastern Texas and final amounts are likely to be staggering when all is said and done later next week.
Meanwhile, a second tropical system is getting better organized just to the southwest of Florida. This system could strengthen into Tropical Storm “Irma” over the next few days as it churns northeastward along the Southeast US coastline. In fact, “soon-to-be” Irma could reach hurricane status by the time it reaches the region near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it could end up throwing some rain and wind back into the I-95 corridor during the early part of next week.
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Two hurricane streaks could come to an end over the next couple of days. First, Texas has not been hit directly by a hurricane since Hurricane “Ike” struck the state in September 2008 as a category 2 storm. This streak appears quite likely to be coming to an end as Harvey appears to be headed towards hurricane status as it closes in on the southeast Texas coastline. Second, there has not been a major (i.e., category 3 or higher) hurricane strike on the US mainland since 2005 – the longest “drought” of major hurricanes in recorded history since the middle 1800’s. The last major hurricane to hit the US was Wilma in October 2005 (southwestern Florida) - 4322 days ago (info courtesy Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University). This streak has a chance to come to an end since it is not out of the realm of possibility that Harvey strengthens all the way to category 3 status before making landfall in southeast Texas – perhaps somewhere near Corpus Christi.
Elsewhere, a second tropical system is likely to gain strength over the next few days just off the Florida coastline. If this system indeed reaches tropical storm status – quite a realistic scenario – it would become officially named “Irma”. This tropical system is likely to move slowly northeastward in coming days just off the Southeast US coastline producing heavy rainfall from Florida to North Carolina.
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There are currently two tropical waves of interest in and around the Gulf of Mexico and both appear to be headed for a period of intensification and slow-movement. This particular outlook for intensification and slow-movement raises the possibility for some excessive rainfall amounts in coming days; especially, from southeastern Texas to southwestern Louisiana and perhaps in the coastal region from Florida to North Carolina. There is yet a third wave of interest that looks quite impressive just now coming off the west coast of Africa in this typically climatologically-active time of year for the Atlantic Basin.
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From a climatological point-of-view, tropical activity tends to ramp up in the Atlantic Basin during the month of August as sea surface temperatures climb towards their highest levels of the year. In fact, sea surface temperatures currently are generally warmer-than-normal in the all-important tropical breeding grounds of the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, there are now two tropical systems to closely monitor over the next several days with one over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and the other near the northwestern side of the Bahamas Island chain. The system over the Yucatan Peninsula poses a big threat to Texas in coming days and the system near the east coast of Florida poses a threat to the Southeast US coastline from Florida to North Carolina.
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From a climatological point-of-view, it is now the time of year for the Atlantic Basin to start ramping up in terms of tropical activity and indeed that is happening right on schedule. Typically, tropical activity ramps up in the Atlantic Basin during the month of August, peaks around mid-September, and then gradually winds down during the fall months of October and November. Currently, there are two tropical systems of interest in the Atlantic Basin.Tropical Storm Franklin is headed today across the Yucatan Peninsula on its way to a likely landfall in northeastern Mexico in a couple of days. In addition, a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic known as “Invest 99L” will likely face some difficult environmental conditions during the next 48 hours, but it will then have to be closely monitored as it comes closer to the US east coast and reaches a more favorable atmosphere for intensification.
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