This is looking like a relatively quiet week across the country compared to last, but next week could turn out to be quite active with storm threats and brutal cold air is likely to plunge into the US from way up north. The bitter cold air mass will first arrive in the Northern Plains by this weekend and then it should spread across much of the rest of the nation during the early part of next week. “Teleconnection” signals support the notion that it turns very cold next week in much of the nation and the new year is likely to start in the deep freeze for many areas.
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Arctic air plunged into the Mid-Atlantic region late yesterday and temperatures today are well below-normal in DC, Philly and NYC. Meanwhile, a “clipper” low pressure system is dropping southeastward across the Upper Midwest and it should reach southwestern Pennsylvania by later tonight. As a result, snow is likely to break out later tonight in much of the Mid-Atlantic region; primarily, in areas to the north of the Mason-Dixon Line, but even the DC metro region can see some snow shower activity. Any snow that falls with this “clipper” system can quickly cause slippery conditions on untreated roadways given the very cold surface temperatures. Looking ahead to later this month, there are signals for continued cold air outbreaks into the eastern US – perhaps after a temporary milder stretch early next week – and the pattern may become quite stormy as well.
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The biggest weather story of the week in the Mid-Atlantic region is likely to be the bitter cold coming at mid-week because of its unusual nature for this time of year; however, there are also multiple waves of energy in the northern branch of the jet stream that can cause snow on numerous occasions during the upcoming five days or so. The first upper-level system to monitor is likely to generate some snow and/or rain shower activity in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and there can be some snow squall activity as very cold air pours into the region later tomorrow into tomorrow night. After a very windy and cold day on Wednesday, a second wave of energy will drop southeast towards the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and it could generate some accumulating snow in a very cold air mass. Another snow threat will come late Friday into Saturday as a couple of waves of upper-level energy try to consolidate near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and the result could be some more snow for the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.
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A major pattern change to cold has now begun in the Mid-Atlantic region with the passage of a strong cold frontal system and it is going to get worse before it gets better. This initial shot of cold air is not brutal, not record-breaking by any means, but it is just the front end of a pattern change that will bring even colder air here for the late week and weekend, and then some big time cold is destined to flood the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week. In fact, it is possible that DC, Philly and NYC will struggle to reach the freezing mark for highs by the middle of next week. In addition to the intensifying cold over the next several days, there are some prospects for snow in the I-95 corridor. The first chance of snow will come from later Friday into Saturday, the second shot comes Saturday night into early Sunday, and then the third threat comes in the Tuesday/early Wednesday time frame associated with the mid-week significant cold air outbreak.
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A major pattern change is going to begin on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic region and it will result in an extended period with colder-than-normal temperatures. This initial shot of cold will be followed by a reinforcing cold air mass this weekend and then a significant cold air outbreak is likely next week which may accompanied by a coastal storm. The pattern-changing cold front is now crossing the Ohio Valley and it is trailing a powerful storm just north of Lake Superior.
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A major pattern change is going to begin on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic region and it will result in a period of sustained colder-than-normal temperatures that will assure a much different December compared to the last five. This pattern change to cold will also include increasing chances for snow – perhaps as early as late this week or during the upcoming weekend – as an active upper-level trough forms in the eastern US associated with the initial cold blast.
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A major pattern change is going to begin in the Mid-Atlantic region during the middle of next week that will likely result in an extended period of colder-than-normal temperatures. In addition, snow will likely become a threat on multiple occasions during the month of December - potentially as early as at the end of next week.
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If you still have to put up outside Christmas lights and rake some more leaves then this weekend may be the last chance for awhile with seasonal temperatures in the eastern US. There are increasing signs for a major pattern shift to winter weather conditions in the central and eastern US beginning late next week that will feature a combination of strong upper-level blocking over the northern latitudes and a deep trough of low pressure over the central/eastern US. Once this pattern sets up it could very well stick around for much of the month of December which would, of course, increase our odds for a white Christmas. Before that, however, the overall weather pattern will be rather quiet for the next week or so featuring mild conditions for the next two days and then a rather unimpressive cold frontal passage that will bring us seasonably chilly air for the end of the week, weekend, and early part of next week.
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While we are celebrating a chilly Thanksgiving Day in the Mid-Atlantic region, Summit Station in Greenland will experience high temperatures around -40°F which continues the very cold and well-below normal trend for the month of November. Summit Station (also known as Summit Camp) is a high-altitude (10,551 feet) year-round research station in central Greenland and its exact coordinates actually can change since the ice sheet underneath is often on the move. In addition to the bitter cold, snow and ice accumulation throughout Greenland has been running at the high end of normal since the fall of 2016 - at times at or near record levels - and NASA/MODIS satellite imagery reveals significant growth in the Petermann Glacier from a low point reached five years ago. One of the important reasons for closely monitoring the snow and ice buildup on Greenland is that this region can be an important cold air source for the central and eastern US during the upcoming winter season.
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Somewhat reminiscent of the storm that brought down the “SS Edmund Fitzgerald” in November 1975, a major storm will develop over Great Lakes this weekend and produce dangerous wind gusts in that area and winds here in the I-95 corridor could gust to 50 mph or so on Sunday behind the passage of a powerful cold front. This next cold shot will continue an overall colder-than-normal weather pattern for November that looks like it will stay intact to the end of the month with additional cold air outbreaks to follow. In fact, another cold air outbreak is likely to reach the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-week and result in a cold Turkey Day for the entire Northeast US.
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