The current stretch of generally warmer-than-normal weather in the Mid-Atlantic region that began a couple of weeks ago comes to an end this week and we’ll return to a more sustained colder-than-normal pattern for much of the month of February. One cold front will arrive late tonight and it’ll usher in a cold air mass for the next couple of days and then a second cold front will arrive by early Friday with another cold air mass to follow in its wake - each of these fronts can bring some snow to the DC-to-Philly corridor.
Read More
We are now experiencing warmer-than-normal weather conditions in the eastern US and there will be mild spells right into the first week of February, but the signs are increasing for a return to a cold pattern next month and it may very well last for an extended period of time. The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics and it will be transitioning into “phases” during the month of February that are conducive to colder-than-normal weather in the eastern US. In addition, stratospheric warming will unfold over the next week or so in the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere and this can set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately results in colder-than-normal weather for the eastern US. There are other signals as well that support the notion of a return to colder-than-normal in the eastern US and it very well could stick around for awhile.
Read More
The month of January has been much colder-than-normal so far in the central and eastern US, but there are strong indications that we are about to enter a warmer pattern that may last for the next two-to-three weeks. This does not mean that each and every day going forward in this stretch will be warmer-than-normal and there will continue to be cold air outbreaks, but the cold air outbreaks should be relatively short-lived compared to recent weeks and it'll likely average above-normal for each 5-day period going forward into the first week of February. The latest forecast of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is supportive of the idea for an extended period of warmer weather in the central and eastern US. Looking beyond this extended warmer stretch; however, the MJO longer-range outlook and a comparison to some analog years, suggest that a colder pattern is likely to return in February and it could very well stick around for awhile.
Read More
A very active weather pattern has begun and will continue for the next several days. Heavy rain has already fallen today on much of the I-95 corridor and another round will take place later tonight into early Saturday. An Arctic front will pass through the region by early tomorrow and this will result in about a 50 degree temperature drop between now and early Sunday morning in the I-95 corridor as Arctic air floods the area following the warm conditions of today. The rain could end as a period of sleet and/or freezing rain tomorrow morning as the Arctic air arrives; especially, to the north and west of the big cities. Then, after a couple of dry and cold days, snow may threaten the I-95 corridor from later Tuesday into Thursday as low pressure tries to form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Read More
The overall weather pattern from tonight through the middle of next week will be quite volatile with wild swings in temperatures from the 60’s on Friday afternoon to Arctic cold for this weekend and much of next week. This late week "January thaw" will also result in heavy rain for the I-95 corridor and thunderstorms could even get mixed into the picture as well as some patchy fog. As Arctic cold arrives in the big cities on Saturday morning, the precipitation could mix with or change to ice and/or snow before ending by mid-day. Then, after a couple of dry and quite cold days, accumulating snow may threaten the I-95 corridor from later Tuesday into Wednesday as a reinforcing Arctic blast arrives in the eastern US.
Read More
The stretch of weather that began just before Christmas Day has been very cold relative-to-normal for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country and it may reach a nadir this weekend. Temperatures during the next couple of mornings in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor should rather easily drop to single digits and some spots will likely reach zero or even sub-zero conditions. Each morning this week has featured numerous record-low temperatures in the Northeast US, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions and that pattern should continue tomorrow morning and perhaps become even more widespread early Sunday morning. It’ll stay very cold on Sunday, but less painful than Saturday as temperatures will climb a bit and winds will drop off in intensity and then there will be more modification on Monday with many areas attempting to climb above freezing for the first time in many days. More significant warming in the I-95 corridor is likely late next week for a few days and then an even greater and more widespread “January thaw” is possible later this month.
Read More
A high impact weather event continues for much of the eastern US with bands of accumulating snow soon to be followed by extreme cold and dangerous sub-zero wind chills. This storm now ranks as one of the most intense east coast winter storms ever in terms of how fast and how much it has intensified while moving over the relatively warm waters of the western Atlantic Ocean (i.e., Gulf Stream). In fact, the central pressure dropped 54 millibars in a 24-hour period reaching major hurricane-like strength (category 3) by 7AM of 954 millibars (28.17) and it is unleashing hurricane-force winds along coastal sections of New Jersey to New England. Heavy snow bands rotating around the storm will continue for the few hours in the Mid-Atlantic region, but by later today, the powerful winds will become the main factor and then the extreme cold.
Read More
A high impact weather event is unfolding for much of the eastern US with accumulating snow to be followed by extreme cold and dangerous sub-zero wind chills. A powerful storm over the western Atlantic Ocean will deepen explosively during the next 24-36 hours as it moves generally northward from off the Florida coastline today to just east of Maine by tomorrow night. This storm will develop hurricane-like strength by tomorrow night when its central pressure could bottom out near 28.14 inches (953 millibars) – this is on the same level as category 3 (major) hurricanes. Extremely cold air will pour into the eastern US on the heels of this ocean storm and given its intense pressure gradient, winds will strengthen significantly on Thursday night and Friday. The combination of wind gusts past 40 mph and the extremely cold temperatures will generate dangerous sub-zero wind chill values for an extended period of time from Thursday night to Saturday night. After that, some moderation in temperatures should arrive early next week, but that temporary “warmup” may be accompanied by some wintry precipitation.
Read More
The bitter cold weather pattern of the past couple of weeks for the eastern two-thirds of the nation will not ease up at all this week and an added feature will be a powerful storm that develops over the western Atlantic Ocean. This storm is likely to generate ice and accumulating snow from Florida to New England over the next couple of days and accumulating snow can fall all the way back to the immediate I-95 corridor region between DC and Philly. Temperatures today will stay below freezing across about 80% of the nation and record lows have been set this morning in dozens of locations repeating a similar performance of yesterday morning. Perhaps even more important than any snow that falls from this upcoming storm will be the extreme cold that follows in the eastern US during the Thursday night to Saturday time period. Wind chills will reach dangerous sub-zero levels as winds gust to 50 mph or so in this late week time period and power outages are a concern. A relaxation in temperatures is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by early next week, but there may be a wintry mix of rain, sleet and/or snow to accompany that “warm up”.
Read More
Arctic cold will be relentless and punishing for much of the nation for several days to come and many areas will be experience some of the coldest weather in decades to begin a new year. In fact, the three week stretch from around December 20th to January 10th could be one of the coldest stretches we’ve had across much of the nation in a long, long time. A clipper system will drop southeastward and into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Saturday – likely with accumulating snow on the order of a dusting to an inch or two – and it will usher in the coldest Arctic air mass so far in this cold wave for the Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday time period. Indeed, average temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the nation may be the coldest ever to start a new year in about 70 years of record keeping.
Read More
