This is no April Fool’s joke…accumulating snow is coming to much of the I-95 corridor late tonight and early Monday. There have been two threats to monitor for this upcoming week in terms of the potential for snow and the first one is indeed going to result in accumulating snow and the second threat is still definitely on the table for next weekend.
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Temperatures at mid-day on Friday are near 70 degrees in the DC metro region and in the 60’s in the Philly and NYC metro regions, but next week continues to look quite different with colder-than-normal air masses headed our way. In additional to the colder air masses, there are two snow threats that will have to be monitored – one late Sunday night into early Monday and then another is possible at the end of next week or next weekend.
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There will be a noticeable warm up on Thursday in the I-95 corridor with 70+ degrees possible in the DC metro region and 60+ degrees in Philly, but then a cold front slides through the region on Friday and cooler air will arrive for the weekend. Another frontal system will arrive on Sunday and this will step us down a bit more in temperatures for the early part of next and there will be additional cold air outbreaks later next week. In addition to the colder pattern, we'll have at least a couple of low pressure systems to monitor in terms of snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. One wave of low pressure could generate a swath of rain and/or snow on Monday and then a second - and perhaps stronger system - will need to be monitored for the latter part of next week or the following weekend.
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There will be a noticeable warm up over the next few days in the Mid-Atlantic region, but it looks like this will be just a temporary spring tease as colder-than-normal conditions are likely to return for the first ten days or so of April and some signs point to a colder-than-normal pattern continuing much longer than that - perhaps even into May. In addition to the cold, there will likely be some close calls with respect to snow in the I-95 corridor in April and it is just too early to give an all clear on that particular front.
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There will be a noticeable warm up next week in the Mid-Atlantic region, but it looks like it’ll be just a temporary spring tease as colder-than-normal conditions are likely to return in time for the beginning of April and they may continue right into the middle of the month. A colder-than-normal air mass will first appear later next week across southwestern and south-central Canada and then expand south and east so that by next weekend there will be a “wall of cold” virtually covering all of southern Canada and the northern US including right here in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Strong, cold high pressure from southeastern Canada will edge into the Northeast US today and will become a source of cold air over the next few days as a complex area of low pressure heads towards the region. In fact, it is looking like two separate low pressure systems may form over the next couple of days and there are forecasting complexities associated with each system, but significant accumulating snow is definitely on the table in the DC-to-Philly corridor and this threat could certainly expand north into the NYC metro region.
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A great blizzard took place in the Mid-Atlantic region from March 18-21, 1958 with a focus on Pennsylvania where extreme snowfall amounts took place and there was a snowstorm from April 6-7 in 1982 which delayed the opening of the baseball season by several days…the point is, there can be significant snow events at the end of the winter season and even into the early part of spring. A significant storm threat continues for next week in the Mid-Atlantic region and it could be a long-lasting event with the potential for important rain, ice and/or snow amounts in DC-to-Philly corridor. The cold and stormy weather pattern that we are experiencing looks like it will continue right into early April this year.
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March is known to feature some crazy and surprising weather and the 1958 blizzard that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic region between March 18th and 23rd was indeed rather unexpected. In general, forecasts on the morning of March 18th had no mention of snow. This was in an era when computer forecast models were just in their infancy and it was even before satellite imagery existed which could aid in the forecast. By afternoon on that particular day, the light rain had changed into huge, wet snowflakes and - for the next few days - history was being made.
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If you had a chance to bet on the over/under for the number of nor’easters this month, I hope you took the over. There have been three nor’easters in the past ten days or so and there is the threat for another one around Tuesday of next week. In fact, as we approach the middle of March, it is hard to find any sign of sustained spring-like weather for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and the colder-than-normal temperature pattern is looking like it will go right into early April. In addition, instability in the upper-atmosphere will bring much of the region snow showers this afternoon with isolated snow squalls and perhaps a repeat tomorrow afternoon.
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Strong low pressure will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Monday and it could result in accumulating snowfall for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In addition to the persistent high-latitude blocking to our north, two key players in the upcoming storm threat will be separate waves of energy in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. These waves will ultimately consolidate into one deep upper-level trough and if the phasing takes place quick enough then a strong storm would indeed impact the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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