The grounds are already well saturated in the DC-to-Philly corridor after recent soaking rains and there is more significant rainfall on the way. Tropical moisture is riding northward from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and it is now firmly entrenched in the eastern third of the nation. Disturbances in the upper atmosphere will head our way from the Midwest over the next several days and tap into this abundant moisture and the result is likely to be downpours later this week and during the upcoming weekend.
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The overall numbers are likely to be near normal this year in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico). In a normal Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 12 named storms with 6 reaching hurricane status and only 2 or 3 actually reaching major status (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). Last year's tropical season was hyperactive with 17 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 majors and it followed an above-normal year in 2016. The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include the likely transition of La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean to El Nino conditions by later this summer. The Atlantic Ocean is sending mixed signals in terms of the prospects for tropical activity this season with some sections featuring (unfavorable) colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures and others featuring (favorable) warmer-than-normal waters. The sea surface temperature pattern in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean makes the southern and eastern US somewhat vulnerable to what I like to call “home-grown” tropical hits during this upcoming tropical season.
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The grounds are already well saturated in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor after recent soaking rains and there is more significant rainfall on the way. As a result, localized flash flooding will become an increasing concern over the next few days as we’ll continue to get hit by rounds of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, many spots in the I-95 corridor may receive 3-5 inches of rain between this afternoon and Saturday night and this is on top of all of the recent rainfall.
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Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning and even a few tornadoes are likely late today/early tonight in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. In addition to these particular weather threats, there are signs that “training” of thunderstorms may take place in some sections later tonight where multiple storms track over the same areas potentially leading to excessive rainfall amounts and localized significant flash flooding issues. Yesterday’s severe weather outbreak was focused in areas to the south of the PA/MD border, but today’s threat should be highest from eastern Pennsylvania to southern New England. This overall very wet weather pattern looks like it will continue right into next week for much of the eastern third of the nation.
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There will not be a drought anytime soon in the Mid-Atlantic region or even in much of the eastern third of the nation as a very wet pattern is unfolding for the next week or so that will likely result in excessive amounts of rainfall. There will be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next several days and some of the storms that occur can be on the strong-to-severe side. In fact, there is a threat late today/early tonight for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the DC-to-Philly corridor and then another threat exists for late tomorrow. The main weather threat from today's expected thunderstorm activity will be damaging wind gusts; especially, in areas south of the PA/MD border. The frontal system that is contributing to a lot of the instability in this overall weather pattern will remain in close proximity through the upcoming weekend and into the early part of next week and, to add fuel to the fire, tropical moisture from the Southeast US will get involved.
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Earlier this year, we experienced a dramatic weekend temperature drop here in the I-95 corridor following the passage of a strong back door cold front that brought temperatures down from the 70’s to the 30’s in just a several hour period. Though perhaps not quite as dramatic, this upcoming weekend could very well feature a big change in temperatures between Saturday afternoon and Sunday following the passage of another back door cool front. In addition, the arrival of this back door cool front could result in severe thunderstorm activity late tomorrow into tomorrow night in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.
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Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage across western sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and they are headed towards the I-95 corridor region from DC to Philly. These thunderstorms are associated with a cool frontal system which is slowly dropping southeastward over the Ohio Valley. With the heating in the lower atmosphere this afternoon in the I-95 corridor; especially, to the south of the PA/MD border, there should be enough instability to support the convection now firing up in places like central and western Pennsylvania. The timetable for this threat of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity is 3-8 pm in the DC metro region and 4-9 pm in the Philly metro region. The greatest threat from these potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts and hail. In areas to the north of the Philly metro region (e.g., New York City) and at the coastline, the atmosphere is more stable with persistent cooler temperatures and the threat for severe weather is considerably lower.
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There were unofficially as many as 21 tornadoes yesterday in the central and southern Plains and one of those apparently took place in the state of Oklahoma. The National Weather Service has not yet confirmed any of yesterday’s storm reports and the possibility of one in the state of Oklahoma is important since it would be the first of the calendar year and the latest ever for their first tornado. A more widespread severe weather outbreak is likely later today and there can be damaging wind gusts, softball-sized hail, and tornadoes from Texas-to-Iowa as favorable conditions come together in that part of the country.
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To be fair, most of the computer model predictions of a transition from La Nina (colder-than-normal) to El Nino (warmer-than-normal) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggest this will take place over the next few months, but the track record of these same models from just one year ago is not all that confidence-building and the latest 7-day change in sea surface temperatures is certainly not yet showing any kind of dramatic turnaround. The overall conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are very important to the Atlantic Basin tropical season which officially begins in just over one month’s time. Computer forecast model predictions of an El Nino last year were simply not accurate and the surprise return of La Nina late last summer contributed to the suddenly very active tropical season of 2017.
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There will be another chilly shot of air dropping southeastward this weekend into the Northeast US and Sunday will turn out to be cooler-than-normal for this time of year, but there are signs that a major warm up is coming next week. In fact, it looks like the major warm up will coincide quite nicely with the calendar change to May (on Tuesday) with the 80’s quite likely for highs during this warm stretch of weather - perhaps even with a run at the 90 degree mark at some point later next week. Looking even farther ahead, next week’s warm up does not appear to be the end of the cooler-than-normal air masses coming our way as it is likely to turn much cooler again during the second week of the new month.
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