It has been a very wet summer in much of the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic and significant rain is likely to fall in many areas over the next several days. In fact, I think the chances are quite high that some spots see several inches of new rainfall between late today and the middle of next week and this will fall on already well-saturated grounds. A slow-moving cool frontal system will only grudgingly move across the area over the next 48 hours and this will result in numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning late today and lasting well into the upcoming weekend. This will make it the 10th weekend of the past 13 with some rainfall in at least parts of the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic. Another front will approach the area late Tuesday and it’ll be supported by a vigorous upper-level energy which is likely to result in more downpours come late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
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The Atlantic Basin has been relatively quiet in recent days in terms of tropical activity and it continues to look like this will be a less active tropical season compared to 2017. One of the main factors that led us to an outlook for a less active tropical season back in the springtime was the large patch of colder-than-normal water at that time in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. This continues to exist and is quite likely an inhibiting factor for the formation or intensification of tropical activity in the tropical Atlantic and there are a couple other factors as well that are likely deterring activity. First, Saharan Desert (dry) air has persistently flowed westward from western Africa and into the tropical Atlantic and there are signs that this general pattern will continue into at least the near future. In addition, wind shear has been quite prominent across the tropical Atlantic in recent days and there are reasons to believe that this will continue to impede tropical activity in coming weeks. Don’t let your guard down; however, as all it takes is a direct hit by one storm to make it a memorable tropical season.
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A strong cool front is closing in on the I-95 corridor and strong-to-severe thunderstorms are popping over the past couple of hours. Daytime heating is contributing to increasing instability in the atmosphere and the coverage and intensity of shower and thunderstorm activity should increase through the afternoon hours. Any storm that forms over the next several hours can produce brief downpours, damaging gusty winds and even some hail. There is also the potential for some steadier and heavier rain this evening; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border.
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A low pressure system will form later today along the Delmarva/New Jersey coastal region and it will result in more downpours, gusty winds and perhaps even a period of steady, heavy rain for much of the I-95 corridor. In recent days, the axis of heaviest rainfall has extended from the Chesapeake Bay/DC metro region to central Pennsylvania, but this coastal low pressure system will bring some heavy rainfall to places farther east such as New Jersey and New York City.
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A very wet weather pattern will continue through mid-week in the Mid-Atlantic region as the combination of an upper-level trough over the Southeast US and a Bermuda High over the Atlantic pumps in deep moisture from the tropical Atlantic. There will be numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday night and given the tremendous amount of available moisture in the atmosphere, any shower or storm can produce heavy rainfall amounts in a short period of time. The threat of localized flooding will remain high through mid-week as grounds are thoroughly saturated and several inches of additional rainfall are possible.
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A very wet pattern is unfolding for much of the eastern third of the nation and it’ll begin this weekend with the formation of a deep “negatively-tilted” upper-level trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley and a significant east coast storm. The upper-level system will slowly dig into the Southeast US over the next few days and ultimately contribute to an influx of moisture from the tropical Atlantic to the Mid-Atlantic. The strong coastal storm will generate heavy rain and strong winds later tomorrow and tomorrow night from the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor to coastal sections from Virginia-to-Long Island.
The coastal storm will then ride northward late tomorrow night into interior sections of New England where it will weaken later Sunday. The passage of the coastal storm; however, will not end the rain threat for the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, this significant coastal storm will just be the beginning of a very wet pattern in the eastern US for the next week or so with localized flooding potentially becoming a serious problem in many areas. By the time the latter part of next week rolls around, some spots in the eastern US may have seen the accumulation of at least half a foot of rain.
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A very wet pattern is unfolding for much of the eastern third of the nation and it’ll begin this weekend with the formation of a deep “negatively-tilted” upper-level trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley. This upper-level system will become a slow-mover and it will contribute over the next several days to a persistent flow of air into the Mid-Atlantic region from the tropical Atlantic. In addition, there will be the development of a strong surface low pressure system along the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday which will likely bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to coastal sections from the Delmarva Peninsula-to-southern New England and perhaps even inland to the immediate I-95 corridor. By the time next weekend rolls around, several inches of rain could have fallen in much of the eastern US and localized flooding may become a serious concern.
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Low pressure will slide across southeastern Canada today and whip a strong cool front across our area later tonight. As a result, there are likely to be numerous showers later today into early tonight and perhaps multiple lines of convection (i.e., thunderstorms) passing through the region. Any shower or storm that forms later today could bring downpours to the region with the chance for localized flash flooding and there can be frequent lightning, small hail and damaging wind gusts as well in some spots. The front clears the region by early tomorrow morning setting us up for a much nicer air mass in the Wednesday-to-Friday time period, but an unusually strong summertime upper-level trough promises to bring us unstable weekend weather.
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Showers and embedded strong thunderstorms in the overnight hours were associated with the passage of a warm frontal system that has resulted in noticeably warmer and more humid air for the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, when compared to the last few comfortable cooler-than-normal days. Today’s temperatures will climb well into the 80’s and the humidity levels have climbed to uncomfortable levels and these harsh conditions will only intensify over coming days. In fact, temperatures should easily reach the 90 degree mark for highs on Friday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and then climb well into the 90's on Saturday, Sunday and Monday - perhaps even a flirtation with the 100 degree mark in some spots on those three days. This stretch of hot and humid weather will likely last for a week or so from its beginning on Friday. The good news is that this extended stretch of heat and humidity could very well be the worst of the summer in the Northeast US as there are signs for more comfortable weather conditions during the second half of July and during the month of August.
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The summer solstice has just passed and the days will grow shorter and shorter from here on out until the winter season gets underway. While winter is still a long way off, there are already some clues that can provide some insight as to what kind of weather we can expect around here in the Mid-Atlantic region. First, signs point to the formation of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures by the upcoming winter season in two key areas of the Pacific Ocean: 1) the central equatorial region and 2) the Gulf of Alaska. Second, there is little doubt that solar activity will remain on the low side through the upcoming winter season as we are rapidly approaching the next solar minimum phase from an already historically weak solar cycle #24. Finally, one important wintertime cold air source region for the Mid-Atlantic is Greenland and it is currently experiencing above-normal snow and ice cover. While this is in the speculation phase, all of these factors point to the possibility of cold and snowy conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming 2018-2019 winter season.
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