Florence made landfall earlier today near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and it has nearly grinded to a halt in recent hours with movement of only 3 mph to the west-southwest. This extremely slow movement of Florence will lead to an extended period of heavy rainfall and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas and some spots will see more than two feet of rain by the time all is said and done. Florence will push inland on Saturday and cross over the state of South Carolina in a weakened state and then begin a looping process on Sunday. This looping process will begin with an acceleration to the northwest by early next week and then an even more rapid movement to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Florence will finally push off the Northeast US coastline by the middle of next week and the Atlantic Basin tropical scene may become relatively quiet for awhile. However, after this potential break in the action, the tropical scene is likely to become more active again during the latter part of September and during part of the month of October.
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Hurricane Florence continues to close in on the Carolina coastline and it will arrive in the NC/SC border region on Friday. Hurricane Florence has weakened during the past 24 hours and is now rated as a category 2 storm. The “slowing down” process of Florence has begun and the hurricane will grind nearly to a halt when it reaches the coastline and painfully crawl along to the southwest during the next couple of days.
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Hurricane Florence remains a category 4 (major) storm at mid-day and is currently moving northwest at 15 mph and is headed for the Carolina coastline. It should arrive near the North and South Carolina border region by early Friday where it will become influenced by blocking upper-level high pressure to the north. As a result, Florence will slow down dramatically and drift southwestward along the Carolina coastline. By the latter part of the weekend, Florence is likely to push inland over South Carolina or Georgia and then eventually loop back around to the east. We may have to deal with Florence until the middle of next week before it likely finally exits off the US east coast - perhaps off of New Jersey.
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Hurricane Florence has rapidly intensified today from category 2 status this morning to category 4 status this evening. As Florence moves over very warm waters over the next couple of days, it should remain as a “major” hurricane and a climb to category 5 is not out of the question. All signs continue to point to a WNW track for Florence over the next few days with a possible landfall late Thursday/early Friday near the NC/SC border region. Once Florence reaches the Carolinas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric road block” as very strong high pressure ridging is setting up to the north across the northwestern Atlantic and southeastern part of Canada. As a result of the slow down, Florence is likely to generate tremendous amounts of rainfall in the Carolinas and into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic (e.g., Virginia) over an extended period of time.
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All eyes are focused on Hurricane Florence as we begin the new week and chances for a major impact on the US east coast continue to grow. Florence is now churning slowly towards the US east coast as a category 2 hurricane and may make a landfall late Thursday somewhere along the Carolina coastline – likely with “major” hurricane status. Very strong high pressure ridging is now building at upper levels of the atmosphere across southeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic and this will be a key player in the push of Florence towards the east coast over the next few days. In addition, this very strong high pressure ridge will eventually act as an “atmospheric brick wall” for Florence once it reaches the Carolinas and the brakes will be put on any attempt at a northward advance by the storm. This eventual slow down in the northward advance of Florence will allow for an extended period of heavy rainfall and the result could be tremendous rainfall amounts in the Carolinas and perhaps into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Florence was downgraded in the overnight hours to “tropical storm” status, but it is quite likely to return to “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) in coming days. The evolving upper-level weather pattern will allow for Florence to head westward towards the US east coast over the next several days and it could have a significant impact during the latter part of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Gordon is currently drifting slowly to the north over Arkansas and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall through early next week extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, there are two other tropical systems in the eastern Atlantic that are very likely to intensify to hurricane level in coming days. The first of these trailing systems is likely to head on a “southern” track taking it towards the Caribbean Sea and there is a chance that the last system of the four will curve northward to the open Atlantic.
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Hurricane Florence continues to churn slowly to the northwest over the central Atlantic and it remains a threat to the US east coast. Tropical Depression Gordon has nearly grinded to a halt over the south-central US and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall over the next several days extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic. And if that isn’t enough, there is a third tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has an excellent chance of intensifying in coming days as it likely takes a more “southern” track compared to Florence.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form. Tropical Storm Gordon came ashore overnight in the vicinity of the Alabama/Mississippi border region and is now well inland over the central part of Mississippi. While Gordon has been downgraded to tropical depression status, it is likely to contribute to an extended swath of heavy rainfall in coming days. Meanwhile, Florence has intensified into major hurricane (category 3) status out over the central Atlantic. There is still a chance that Florence gets “captured” by an eastward-moving upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend over the north Atlantic, but odds favor it being “left behind”. If indeed Florence is not “captured” by the trough this weekend then strong and expanding high pressure ridging to the north early next week could very well steer it westward towards the US east coast. Any potential impact on the US east coast by Hurricane Florence would likely come during the middle or latter part of next week.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form. There are currently three tropical systems to monitor and other systems are likely to form in coming days. Tropical Storm Gordon is heading towards the Mississippi/Louisiana border region and is likely to make landfall there late tonight. Florence has just reached hurricane status and it is moving on a WNW track out over the open central Atlantic. There is a chance that Florence gets "captured" by a eastward-moving trough this weekend; however, if it is left behind then the evolving pattern could become quite threatening for the US east coast. Yet another system trails Florence relatively close to Africa’s west coast and it will also likely become a concern in coming days.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is around the middle of September and it certainly looks like there will be a ramp up in activity after a relatively quiet month of August. In fact, there very well may be a burst of activity with potentially several named storms over the next 2 or 3 weeks taking us right into the middle of September. Two areas of interest currently exist and the "front-runner" of these two systems could actually have an impact on Florida and the Gulf of Mexico by the early-to-middle part of next week. The second system is still not far off of Africa's west coast and it will have to be closely monitored given the expected strong high pressure ridging next week across the Northeast US and southeastern Canada.
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