The month of October has a way of ending on occasion with very powerful storms near the east coast of the US including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the “perfect” storm on Halloween Day in 1991. While these two are extreme examples, there continue to be strong signals for a major storm near the east coast this weekend that could actually get a boost of energy and moisture from a category 5 hurricane in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Heavy rain and strong winds are the main threats in the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but snow is on the table from this potential storm in the higher elevation regions from West Virginia to interior New England. This could turn out to be a rather long-lasting storm as well given the expected very large-scale upper-level trough that will set up during the weekend.
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In the long term, the sun is the main driver of all weather and climate and multi-decadal trends in solar activity can have major impacts on oceanic and atmospheric temperatures. In addition, empirical observations have shown that the sun can have important ramifications on weather and climate on shorter time scales including those associated with the average solar cycle of around 11-years. For example, there is evidence that low solar activity during solar minimum years tend to be well-correlated with more frequent “high-latitude blocking” events compared to normal and this type of atmospheric phenomenon can play an important role in the winter season.
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There continue to be signals for a strong storm to form near the east coast towards the latter part of the month and it will be something to monitor in coming days. Cold air outbreaks will continue to drop southeastward into the eastern US over the next several days and by the latter part of next week vigorous energy in the upper part of the atmosphere may result in a deep negatively-tilted trough aloft. The end result may be a strong storm right near the Mid-Atlantic coastline sometime next weekend.
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Numerous cold air outbreaks are likely to drop southeastward into the eastern US over the next couple of weeks and there are some interesting signals suggesting a possible strong storm could form near the east coast as October winds down. Long-range computer forecast maps strongly hint at “high-latitude blocking” to form late this month and teleconnection indices known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are predicted to tank sharply into negative territory which supports this idea. Of course, this is still in the “speculation” phase, but late October has a way of ending with some interesting storms along the east coast of the US including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the “perfect” storm around Halloween Day in 1991. While these two are extreme examples, there is some reason to believe an east coast storm could form as the month winds down and there will be plenty of cold air around.
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It is not unusual this time of year to see a strong tropical system become the catalyst for a significant pattern change and indeed, the passage of Hurricane Michael late last week has seemingly opened the flood gates for cold air masses to drop southeastward into the eastern US from Canada. Canada suffered through one of their coldest Septembers on record, but the widespread cold was largely bottled up north of the border. The pattern shift that began after the passage of Hurricane Michael looks like it is going to result in numerous cold air outbreaks into the eastern US during the second half of October.
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Hurricane Michael is closing in on the Florida Panhandle as a strong category 4 storm with max sustained winds at 150 mph (at 11:50 am). This is an especially dangerous hurricane for the Florida Panhandle since it will arrive at or near its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows a distinct eye and central pressure has continued to fall in recent hours and is now around 923 mb which would make this the 5th strongest landfalling hurricane in the US. Once Hurricane Michael moves inland, weakening will take place; however, hurricane-force winds should extend from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia. In fact, it is likely to maintain hurricane status as it pushes into southern Georgia tonight - perhaps as a cat 2. From there Michael will head towards the Carolinas where heavy rains and strong winds will occur in an area with very well saturated grounds (Florence).
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Hurricane Michael continues to intensify as it moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (now a cat 2) and an eye is becoming more visible on satellite imagery. There is a high probability that Michael will reach major hurricane status (i.e., cat 3 or higher) before a landfall on Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle - perhaps between Destin and Apalachicola – as wind shear in its general vicinity continues to decrease. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline and heavy rain and strong winds are likely in the already rain-soaked region of the Carolinas where Hurricane Florence stalled out last month. While it appears the DC-to-PHL-to-NYC corridor will not get a direct hit from the remains of Michael, there will be rain here on Thursday as the tropical system interacts with a strong cold front and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Quite cool and dry weather should follow in the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
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Any time the upper-level pattern evolves this time of year to one with very strong high pressure ridging centered over the NE US and SE Canada, it is time to monitor closely the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, a tropical system that is currently located in the western Caribbean Sea is likely to turn northward over the next couple days and head out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system will perhaps reach Tropical Storm status as “Michael” within the next 24 hours and could threaten the Florida Panhandle as a hurricane by mid-week. Once landfall is made, this system may turn in a northeasterly direction and head up along the eastern seaboard spreading some unwanted heavy rainfall in the Carolinas and perhaps as far north as the Mid-Atlantic late in the week as it interacts with a frontal system.
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Talk about a nation divided…next week’s weather pattern will bring cold and snow to the western US and summer-like warmth to much of the east. Abnormally strong high pressure ridging will set up early next week centered over southeastern Canada and the Northeast US at the same time deep upper-level troughing takes up shop over the Rocky Mountains. As a result, temperatures will soar to the 80’s for highs next week in many parts of the east and will be confined to the 40’s across many sections out west where snow can even pile up in higher elevation locations. In the “battle-zone” region across the middle of the country, expect lots of rainfall over the next week or so.
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While we have passed the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season, the unfolding weather pattern will become favorable for more tropical activity in the eastern US during the next couple of weeks. Abnormally strong high pressure ridging will set up in coming days over the northeast US and southeastern Canada and this will allow for any potential tropical systems to “slide underneath” and head right towards the US. As a result, close attention should be paid to the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic over the next couple of weeks as the Atlantic Basin tropical season drags on.
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