As the eastern US suffers through yet another soaking rain event to close out this shortened work week, seeds are already being sown for another rain event early next week as this active weather pattern looks like it will continue right into the new year. Today’s system plunged into the Southwest US earlier this week and is now headed towards the Great Lakes region and well to the west of the I-95 corridor. Given this well inland track, warmer air has surged northward along the eastern seaboard resulting in plain rain around here and it looks like there may be a repeat performance by the atmosphere early next week.
On Monday, strong energy in the upper atmosphere will pull out of the Southwest US and head towards the eastern Great Lakes - once again keeping the east coast in the warm sector with plain rain likely from later Monday into early Tuesday. Colder air will then filter into the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-week at the same time another strong wave of energy drops into the Southwest US. It is still unclear and many days away, but there is a chance that this system may end up taking more of a southern track late next week which would make it a bit trickier in terms of rain versus snow in the Mid-Atlantic region; however, cold air will likely only be marginal.
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Another rain event will get underway later tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong storm begins to lift northeast from the central Plains towards the Great Lakes. As the storm moves to the west of here on Friday, warmer air will surge up the Atlantic seaboard and temperatures may reach the 60 degree mark in parts of the I-95 corridor. Another low pressure system threatens for Sunday, but it is likely to stay just to the south of here as we close out the weekend. Yet another low pressure system will likely impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and Monday night and with an expected track again to the west of here, it is most likely going to result in plain rain. Finally, by the middle of next week, there will be cold air nudging its way southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley at the same time there will be plenty of moisture in the southeastern US. It is too early to say if the cold from the northwest and the moisture from the southeast will meet up over the Mid-Atlantic region, but it’ll be something to monitor in coming days as this active pattern continues right into 2019.
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Another significant rain event will get underway later today as a powerful storm begins to lift northeast from the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal region. This storm will not only bring us soaking rainfall – perhaps 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts – but also very strong wind gusts potentially past 50 mph. In addition, as the storm moves northward on Friday to the west of the I-95 corridor, warmer air will surge up the Atlantic seaboard and it’ll feel spring-like with temperatures climbing to 60+ degrees in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Given the already well-saturated grounds, localized flooding is likely to become a real concern over the next 24-48 hours.
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A complex weather pattern is unfolding for the weekend that will feature multiple surface low pressure systems supported all weekend by the volatile combination of a deep and slow-moving wave of upper-level energy. As a result, the threat for precipitation will extend from late today into Sunday night and it is likely to come in two waves. The front end is likely to feature occasional plain rain in the Mid-Atlantic region from late today into early tomorrow night, but the back end forecast becomes a bit trickier for the period from late tomorrow night into Sunday night. Colder air will seep into the Mid-Atlantic region during the second half of the weekend and this could lead to a mix with or a changeover of the rain to snow and/or sleet; especially, in areas to the north and west of the big cities along the I-95 corridor. Another cold shot will arrive late Monday following the departure of the complex weekend storm and NW winds will become quite strong by Monday night and early Tuesday as Arctic air floods the region.
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There has been a bit of a lull this week in the recent active weather pattern, but that will change in coming days and there are three different systems that bear watching between today and early next week. The first system is likely to produce some nuisance snow in areas primarily well to the north of the Mason-Dixon Line from late tonight into mid-day tomorrow and there can be some slippery road conditions. The second and stronger system will generate a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Friday into Saturday morning and the rain can linger in late Saturday and even into Sunday as it’ll be a slow mover. On the heels of the weekend storm, another cold shot will arrive on Monday and it will be supported by vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere which could result in strong winds in the Northeast US and numerous snow showers.
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One of the ways to monitor the potential for wintertime Arctic air outbreaks in the central and eastern U.S. is to follow what is happening in the stratosphere over the Northern Hemisphere. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere, occurring primarily in the Northern Hemisphere, and these events have been found to set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately can lead to polar vortex disruptions and Arctic air outbreaks for the central and eastern US. Indeed, there is a significant stratospheric warming event now unfolding and it raises the chances for more frigid weather during the middle and latter stages of January.
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Accumulating snow is falling over central and southern New Jersey and some areas may end up with 4 or 5 inches by the time the evening rolls around and a dusting to an inch or so is possible as far inland as Philly and its immediate suburbs. This localized snow event is associated with an inverted (“norlun”) trof axis that extends northwestward to New Jersey from a western Atlantic Ocean intensifying low pressure system. Looking ahead, a major storm will head from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Texas by the early part of the weekend and then it’ll make a move towards the North Carolina coastline. Given this track, significant accumulating snow will likely be the result from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and even as far north as the southwestern part of Virginia. After that, there are some signs that this storm can ultimately have an impact on the I-95 corridor region in the Sunday/Monday time frame, but we’re still a bit too far away to be certain.
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Colder air moved into the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and the chill will remain in place right through the upcoming weekend. In fact, the nation is currently experiencing colder-than-normal weather virtually from coast-to-coast and this general pattern will continue for the next few days. In terms of storminess, one low pressure system over the western Atlantic on Wednesday may feature an inverted (“norlun”) trough extending back to the New Jersey coastline with the potential of small-scale heavy snow banding and another storm will approach the southern California/northern Baja California region late in the week from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This late week storm will then re-emerge over Texas by early Saturday and from there it’ll likely track towards the Carolina coastline. Given this track, significant accumulating snow will likely be the result from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and even as far north as the southern part of Virginia. After that, it is still somewhat unclear as to whether this storm will impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC with significant snowfall, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.
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A storm will approach the southern part of California later this week and it will then take a southern track from Texas to the Southeast US coastline. This storm is likely to have a significant impact in the Deep South in terms of rainfall and even the potential for severe weather and it could very well generate significant snowfall along the “Route I-40” states from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina. After that, it is still unclear as to whether this storm will take a ride up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.
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The cold and stormy pattern that brought widespread colder-than-normal conditions to much of the country in November as well as some significant early season snowfall looks like it will continue during the first couple weeks of December. One storm will pound the central Plains this weekend with significant accumulating snow and rain will once again dampen conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region. After that, there is likely to be a strong storm system over the eastern Pacific Ocean around the middle of next week riding along in the southern branch of the jet stream. This storm may hit California in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with coastal rains and inland snows and it could take a southern track across the US and very well end up on the east coast next weekend as a significant snow and rain producer.
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