There are two big weather stories unfolding for the week and weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with the potential of some heavy rainfall at mid-week from the remains of Barry and then the hottest weather of the summer so far for the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time frame and perhaps even into the early part of next week. Showers and thunderstorms are likely from later Wednesday into Thursday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor mainly as a result of the remains of Barry and some of this rain can be heavy at times. Once this large moisture field pushes away, the excessive heat will become the main story with mid-to-upper 90’s possible for highs in DC, Philly and NYC this weekend and triple digits is on the table.
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A broad area of low pressure is drifting westward this morning over the Gulf of Mexico and there is not yet a well-defined center of circulation. As atmospheric conditions become more favorable and the system moves over warmer-than-normal water, intensification will become more likely and tropical storm status could be attained by later tonight or early tomorrow and perhaps (weak) hurricane status can be reached by later tomorrow night. A turn to the northwest by the early part of the weekend could bring this tropical system into central Louisiana and it’ll likely remain a relatively slow-mover raising the chances for substantial amounts of rainfall across southern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi as well over the next few days. Elsewhere, there is a threat this afternoon and tonight in the I-95 corridor for strong-to-severe thunderstorms – any one of these storms can bring heavy downpours to an already-soaked part of the country.
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Low pressure that pushed southward yesterday from Georgia to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is now showing clear signs of strengthening and it is very likely to reach named (Barry) tropical storm status over the next day or two. While only slow intensification is expected for the next day or two, there are reasons to believe that the combination of favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions will allow for more rapid strengthening beyond 48 hours and this could result in a category 1 or 2 hurricane this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico. A key player in the eventual path of soon-to-be named “Barry” will be a strong ridge of high pressure to the northwest that may steer this system towards a landfall Louisiana or Texas by the latter part of the weekend. In addition, with the building ridge to the northwest, there is the chance that this system becomes a slow mover and this will only enhance chances for some serious rainfall in the Gulf of Mexico region from eastern Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere, the centrally-based El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is now showing signs of weakening and this could result in a more active Atlantic Basin tropical season during the next few months.
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Overall activity in this still rather young Atlantic Basin tropical season has been pretty much non-existent so far, but it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will be the breeding grounds this week for tropical storm development. Low pressure will first drift southward to a location over the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and then drift westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and likely intensify into tropical storm status – perhaps even reaching hurricane status. All eyes from the Florida Panhandle to Texas should closely monitor this unfolding situation as heavy rainfall is likely whether or not there is a named tropical system (would be called Barry).
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Unusually cold air has dominated the western states in recent days at the same time increasingly warm and humid air has ruled the southeastern states and this on-going split across the country will put the southern and central Plains right in the “battle zone” region in coming days. The combination of this sharp temperature (and humidity) gradient and vigorous upper-level energy will bring a couple of serious threats to the southern and central Plains for severe weather and flooding rains. The first opportunity for severe weather and heavy rainfall will likely come this Saturday and then an even more impressive threat will come on Monday and it may last into Tuesday.
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According to the latest “US Drought Monitor” report, the long-term drought in California is now “officially” over following the very wet winter season of 2018-2019. For the first time since 2011, the state has no region suffering from prolonged drought and the vast majority of the state California is “normal”. The reservoirs are full, the lakes are full, and there is a ton of snow in the higher elevation locations. In fact, the snow pack in the Sierra Nevada – a major source of California’s water supply – has reached incredible amounts by doubling in the month of January and then doubling again in February and despite the calendar showing mid-May, more significant snow is on the way.
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There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as a cold front approaches and some of it will be on the heavy side; especially, south of the PA/MD border. This rain event will be relatively short-lived compared to what is coming later this weekend and early next week. Following tonight’s cold frontal passage, weak high pressure will try to get us off to a decent start this weekend, but it will be facing long odds as low pressure will head our way from the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rain is likely to return to the Mid-Atlantic region late in the day tomorrow or early tomorrow night and then continue off and on into Tuesday of next week. The heaviest rainfall may come in two parts with one period centered on tomorrow night into Sunday morning and then a second phase from late Sunday into Monday. Residual showers may very well last into the day on Tuesday in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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It snowed on Sunday in the Swiss capital of Bern and it certainly wasn’t enough to disrupt travel or most outdoor activities as it only amounted to about an inch and a half. It was, however, the latest snowfall ever recorded in Bern with the previous latest date for snow on May 1st in 1945. The unusual cold snap that led to this snowfall in Europe looks like it may continue for another ten days or so before more normal temperatures return to the central part of the continent. The unusually late cold and snow hasn’t been confined to that side of the Atlantic Ocean as parts of the interior western US, for example, continue to get accumulating snowfall even as we slide well into the month of May. In fact, there is a strong likelihood that Denver, Colorado receives another couple inches of snow later this week and new accumulations are possible in other parts of the Rocky Mountains.
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Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next couple of days as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states. The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist low-level air will result in a severe weather threat today in the region from Texas-to-Kansas and later tomorrow across Mississippi, Alabama and perhaps as far north as Tennessee. In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for large hail and tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the south-central states and then on Thursday across the southeastern US. Any heavy rainfall can result in localized flooding as much of the eastern half of the nation is experiencing well-saturated ground conditions. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat will reach the eastern seaboard on Friday afternoon and evening with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.
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The grass will certainly get off to a good start in the Mid-Atlantic region over the next few weeks as water will be quite plentiful – much as it was for all of the last growing season. The Mid-Atlantic region will get hit by back-to-back rain events in coming days and each one can result in some heavy downpours and perhaps even some strong thunderstorm activity. Looking ahead, there is even a good chance at a third significant rain event at the end of the next week for much of the eastern US including the Mid-Atlantic as the overall wet pattern shows no sign of slowing down.
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