A vigorous upper-level low will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will help to set off the formation of a powerful coastal low along the east coast. This low will intensify on Wednesday and begin to impact the Mid-Atlantic region with significant rainfall – something that hasn’t been seen much in recent weeks. The storm will continue to intensify as it rides up along the Northeast US coastline late Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing with it heavy rainfall, strong winds and ultimately, even a changeover to snow in some of the higher elevations of New England. Following the storm, winds will be quite strong on Thursday and temperatures will struggle to escape the 50’s in much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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At this time yesterday, temperatures were in the mid 70’s in Denver, Colorado and the latest observation has quite a difference: 19 degrees, snow and wind gusts to 26 mph. In fact, a few inches of snow has already been reported in the Denver/Boulder Colorado region with significantly higher amounts across Montana which was very hard hit with snow a couple of weeks ago. As this developing storm continues to intensify and pushes off to the northeast over the next couple of days, the “bulls eye” region for snowfall may be eastern North Dakota where more than two feet is possible by early Saturday. Meanwhile, on the other side of the nation, a nor’easter is pounding away at southern New England with heavy rainfall and strong winds.
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A very active weather pattern across North America will bring a tremendous early season shot of cold air and accumulating snow to the region from the Rockies to the Northern Plains over the next few days and two systems off the east coast will merge into one powerful storm just off the Mid-Atlantic/NE US coastlines. As much as two feet of snow is possible in coming days to the Northern and significant rain and wind is possible from the Atlantic low(s) in southern New England.
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The month of October has seen above-normal snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere in recent years and there is likely to be some significant snow accumulations later this week in the region from the Colorado Rockies to the Northern Plains. This snow will be made possible by a tremendous shot of cold air for early October that will bring temperatures down to potential record low levels in the Rockies, central/northern Plains and Great Lakes during the next several days. Meanwhile, low pressure will intensify along a stalled out frontal boundary zone over the NW Atlantic over the next few days and it may impact the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from tomorrow into the end of the work week.
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Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon were in record territory for the date in much of the Mid-Atlantic region and, in some cases, October monthly high temperature records were threatened or broken. In the overnight hours, however, a dramatic change in air mass has taken place in areas north of the PA/MD border as a back-door cool front dropped north-to-south across the region. Temperatures this morning across the northeast US were as much as 25 degrees colder compared to yesterday morning at the same time and they are likely to go nowhere over the next few hours in places like Philly and NYC. The cool air sticks around into the weekend and then it’ll turn a bit warmer early next week and that warm up could be associated with a significant rain event in the I-95 corridor.
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It wasn’t that long ago that there was a fear in Montana’s Glacier National Park (GNP) that the Jackson Glacier was going to disappear in coming years, but that sentiment has changed dramatically recently largely due to extensive cold and snow in the latest winters. In fact, the Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade. As recently as September 2018, there were posted signs within the park warning that GNP’s glaciers were expected to disappear completely by 2020, but these have been removed due to the recent change in sentiment on this warning. If this weekend’s snowstorm is any indication, the recent cold and snowy weather pattern across Montana in recent winters may certainly be an on-going phenomenon.
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In this the climatological peak time of the year for the Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are three systems now on the scene. The most important tropical system in terms of immediate impact is Tropical Storm Imelda which is right near the southeast coastline of Texas. It is likely to produce some tremendous amounts of rainfall over the next few days with 20+ inches on the table. A second system, Hurricane Humberto, continues to slowly pull away from the US east coast now with category 2 status and it could climb to “major” (category 3+) hurricane status within a day or two out over the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, a third system is pushing northwest in the central Atlantic and it will continue to slowly intensify in coming days likely requiring it to become a named storm.
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Here we go again…another slow moving tropical system will impact the Bahamas and Florida over the next couple of days in what is a very active looking tropical scene. There are numerous systems of interest right now across the Atlantic Basin which is not too unusual given the time of year which is the climatological peak period of the tropical season. In addition to the system over the Bahamas, there is a batch of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that may organize in coming days and two other disturbances in the eastern Atlantic. Furthermore, multiple systems over the continent of Africa – the breeding grounds for the Atlantic Basin – assure us that it’ll remain active as we progress through the month of September.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around September 10th and it is adhering to history with not one, not two, but three different systems lined up in the tropical Atlantic and additional waves lurk over the Africa continent. The first wave is likely to move through the Florida Straits or over South Florida this weekend and it could strengthen into a tropical storm. Regardless of development, this system is liable to produce heavy rain and gusty winds in the Bahamas and Florida in coming days. The next system out in the central Atlantic is facing long odds of survival as it will encounter unfavorable wind shear in the near term. The third wave is currently far out in the eastern Atlantic and it poses a potential longer-term threat to the Bahamas, Florida and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico region as it will slowly trek across the tropical Atlantic in coming days and ultimately, it should find favorable atmospheric conditions for intensification.
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The eye of Hurricane Dorian passed over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, earlier today which makes it the the first (and only) landfall by this storm on the US mainland. It made landfall on the Outer Banks as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 90 mph and is the first landfall by a hurricane in North Carolina since Arthur in 2014. The storm has begun an acceleration to the northeast in recent hours as it is increasingly being influenced by an approaching upper-level trough. There is still some impact being felt in coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England where heavy rain bands are rotating around Hurricane Dorian.
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