It could be worse….it could be snow although many might prefer that this time of year. A significant rain event is likely for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the Friday night/Saturday time period as a strong wave of energy moves into the Ohio Valley by the early part of the weekend. A wave of low pressure will initially form over the Ohio Valley by later tomorrow and then a secondary system will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday. This secondary system will become the main player and it is likely to result in some soaking rainfall for DC, Philly, NYC and Boston. On the heels of the storm, windy and cold conditions will develop on Sunday and there can be some snow shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A strong wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will drop into the Ohio Valley by the early part of the weekend and it’ll play an important role in the likelihood of rain and snow in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Initially, a wave of low pressure at the surface will push into the Ohio Valley, but ultimately, a secondary system should form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Odds currently favor rain in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but a small change in the positioning of the upper level low to the south and east could result in a slightly colder solution for the big cities.
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Dew point temperatures have plunged in the last 24 hours as a cold and very dry Arctic air mass takes hold in the Mid-Atlantic region and this will set the stage for a wintry mess on Saturday to include snow, sleet, freezing rain and some accumulations. This Arctic air mass is being anchored by strong high pressure building into the southeastern part of Canada and it will be very reluctant to give up its ground on Saturday as precipitation moves in from the Ohio Valley. As a result, temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing on Saturday; especially, in the northern and western suburbs along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this will likely result in an extended period of frozen precipitation.
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Watch the dew points over the next 24 hours or so as they will plummet as a cold and very dry Arctic air mass pours into the Mid-Atlantic region on strong NW winds that can gust to 50 mph. This incoming air mass will be anchored by strong high pressure centered over the southeastern part of Canada from Friday into Saturday and it will set the stage for an extended period of frozen precipitation on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will only be able to reach the low-to-mid 30’s for highs on Friday afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor…some 20 degrees lower than yesterday. On Saturday, low pressure will move from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Lakes and precipitation will slide eastward from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Given the cold and very dry air mass in place on Saturday morning, there is likely to be an extended period of frozen precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region with accumulations of snow and ice likely at the onset of this event.
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Temperatures are climbing into the 50’s today in the I-95 corridor which is well above-normal for this time of year, but a strong frontal passage early tomorrow will usher in a much colder air mass for the end of the work week. The much colder air will ride into the region on strong NW winds that can gust to 50 mph at times. Strong high pressure will build into southeastern Canada on Friday and high temperatures in the I-95 corridor will be some 20 degrees lower compared to this afternoon’s readings. On Saturday, low pressure will move from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Lakes and precipitation will move east into our area. Given the cold, dry air mass in place on Saturday, there is likely to be a period of frozen precipitation at the onset in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with some accumulations likely.
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Temperatures will climb back into the 50’s on Wednesday in the I-95 corridor which is well above-normal for this time of year, but a strong frontal passage early Thursday will usher in a big change for the end of the week. Arctic air will flood the region later Thursday and Thursday night riding in on strong NW winds which can gust past 40 mph. As a strong cold high pressure system builds into southeastern Canada on Friday, temperatures in the I-95 corridor will struggle to reach the middle 30’s. The influx of an Arctic air mass anchored by strong high pressure to the north will set the stage for a wintry mess on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region that is likely to include some accumulating snow; especially, north of the PA/MD border. This late week blast of Arctic air does not look like it will be an isolated event as there will likely be numerous cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US in coming weeks.
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Temperatures reached the 60’s this past weekend and this will be just a fond memory by the time we reach the upcoming weekend as a significant pattern change will begin that will return winter weather to the central and eastern US after an extended hiatus. In fact, an Arctic outbreak at the end of the work week will be backed up by strong, high pressure to the north and this will set the stage for a potential accumulating snow event for the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions on Saturday. This initial blast of Arctic air does not look like it will be the last. Indeed, it appears more and more likely that the latter part of January and perhaps much of the month of February will feature multiple cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US and, no doubt, this will lead to additional snow threats.
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Temperatures have averaged well above normal across the eastern two-thirds of the nation for the first ten days of January, but all signs point to a flip in the overall pattern in about a week or so. While we have had cold air outbreaks in the eastern US during the past couple of weeks, they have not been sustained and milder conditions have returned rather quickly. In fact, after a couple of cold days in the eastern US this week, the weekend will feature a noticeable jump in temperatures with the 60’s possible on both weekend days in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The warm up will back down some as we start the new work week, but temperatures should remain above-normal on average for much of next week. After that, however, colder air will likely press in the eastern US and it may have more staying power than recent outbreaks.
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A major storm is going to become a multi-hazard event for much of the eastern half of the nation during the next few days. The storm will begin to unfold on Friday in the south-central US and then trek northeast to a position near the Great Lakes by Saturday evening and then over New England on Sunday. Heavy rain and severe weather is likely to take place south and east of the storm track and significant snow and ice is likely to its north and west. The impact in the I-95 corridor will be to bring unusually warm conditions this weekend with highs generally in the 60’s and there will be some rainfall, stiff winds, and perhaps a heavy thunderstorm or two.
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A major storm system this weekend is going to become a multi-hazard event for much of the eastern half of the nation. The storm will begin to unfold later Friday in the south-central US and then trek northeast to a position near the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday evening and then it’ll end up in New England by early Sunday. Heavy rain and severe weather is likely to take place on Saturday south and east of the storm system and significant snow and ice is likely to its north and west. The I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will experience unusual warmth on Saturday afternoon (e.g., 65 degrees in DC) and then some rainfall and possible thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday.
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