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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

11:50 AM | *Stratospheric warming, teleconnection trends, high-latitude blocking – all pointing to a colder and stormy weather pattern for much of January in the eastern US*

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern has been quite active in recent days in the eastern US with two different storm systems impacting the area in just the last three days. Numerous signs in the atmosphere point to a continuation of the stormy weather pattern in coming weeks across the eastern US and it is likely to become increasingly colder - raising the chances for accumulating snow. An on-going stratospheric warming event raises the prospects for high-latitude blocking in coming weeks which, in turn, increases the chance for increasingly colder outbreaks into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Teleconnection trends in such indices as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) support the notion for a sustained period of high-latitude blocking which, in turn, would be more favorable for coastal storm development. In the near-term, one storm will likely push to the Carolina coastline on Friday and it may then stay to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as it heads out-to-sea - but it still needs to be closely monitored. Another winter storm is likely to threaten the southern and eastern US during the early or middle parts of next week as the active pattern continues.

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11:15 AM | *Brief period of sleet/freezing rain possible in suburban locations at onset of late week storm system...second system to impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday...a look ahead to January*

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will continue into the new year for the eastern half of the nation with one low pressure system bringing a potpourri of precipitation on Friday and then a second system late in the weekend that should intensify near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The first system will result in accumulating snow for parts of the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley on New Year’s Day (Friday) and mainly a rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region. However, it can be cold enough at the onset on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region for a brief period of sleet and/or freezing; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border. Late in the weekend, a second low pressure system will likely intensify near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it would have an influx of colder air – a potential setup that needs to be monitored in coming days.

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11:15 AM (Tues) | *Wild weather in the Mid-Atl./NE US from later Christmas Eve into early Christmas Day…heavy rain, damaging winds, strong thunderstorms ahead of cold front…quick freeze-up post-front*

Paul Dorian

A powerful cold front will come barreling towards the eastern seaboard later this week and it’ll bring some wild weather with it to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later Christmas Eve (Thursday) into early Christmas Day (Friday). Ahead of the front, there will be heavy rain, possible strong thunderstorms, and potentially damaging winds which, unfortunately, raises the prospects of power outages. It’ll become much milder as well on Thursday with temperatures likely flirting with the 60 degree mark for late day highs in places like DC, Philly and NYC. The combination of heavy rainfall and mild conditions will cause a rapid melting of snow and this is likely to lead to localized flooding in areas of poor drainage.

On the back side of the front, temperatures will drop rapidly following the heavy rain event to below the freezing mark in many spots resulting in a quick freeze-up of standing water on untreated surfaces. Snow accumulations of several inches are likely in the colder air mass across portions of the Ohio Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. There can even be a brief changeover to sleet and/or snow in the I-95 corridor early Friday morning as the colder air rushes into the region, but a “flash freeze” is the greater concern.

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11:45 AM (MON) | *Heavy rain, strong winds in Mid-Atl/NE US late Thursday - just ahead of strong cold front…quick temperature drop early Friday with snow showers…energetic pattern continues next week*

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern continues this week in the central and eastern US with the main weather event being the late week passage of a powerful Arctic cold frontal system. This front will result in a heavy rain event for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from late Thursday into Thursday night which will be accompanied by strong winds, mild conditions and a possible thunderstorm. With snow cover still in place in many areas north of the PA/MD border, the upcoming heavy rain event may lead to localized flooding conditions.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop sharply potentially leading to a quick ice-up in some spots and inland areas from West Virginia to central/western NY will likely see accumulating snow. In fact, there can even be some small accumulations of snow early Friday in the I-95 corridor on the heels of the frontal passage; especially, in some of the northern and western suburbs. The much colder air that arrives on Christmas Day (Friday) will stick around into the upcoming weekend and next week promises to be quite energetic with the potential of multiple storm threats to monitor.

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12:45 PM (Fri.) | *Volatile weather pattern to continue next week and beyond…cold blast may arrive in the eastern US by Christmas Day...late week Arctic front could be accompanied by heavy rain/snow*

Paul Dorian

The first major winter storm of the season for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US has just passed and the overall weather pattern is likely to remain quite volatile through the remainder of the month. There will be numerous strong waves of energy in coming days that will head into the eastern states. In addition, all signs point to a continuation of cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US over the next couple of weeks. In fact, perhaps the coldest air mass of the season so far could push into the central US by the middle of next week and arrive in the eastern states by Christmas Day (Friday). There is also a chance that heavy rain and accumulating snow will accompany the arrival of the cold blast late next week in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.

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2:45 PM (Thursday) | *Volatile weather pattern continues next week and a Christmas cold blast is in the cards for the eastern US…snowfall info from the 12/16-17 winter storm*

Paul Dorian

The first major winter storm of the season for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US is winding down today and there will be lots of cold air in its wake. In fact, the next several days are likely to remain colder-than-normal in the eastern US and there are increasing signs for a significant cold blast late next week – just in time for Christmas Day. In addition to the threat for more cold weather, it looks like volatile weather will continue next week and beyond with several impressive waves of energy to monitor that will be heading into the eastern states.

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10:30 AM (Wed) | *****High impact storm for the Mid-Atl./NE US…sleet to become a big player in DC-to-Philly corridor…primarily a snow event for upstate PA, interior upstate NJ, NY, New England*****

Paul Dorian

A high impact winter storm is getting underway in the Mid-Atlantic region and it will push into the Northeast US later today and continue into early Thursday. Sleet will become a big player in the DC-to-Philly corridor with freezing rain in the mix as well and this will limit total snowfall accumulation amounts. This storm will be primarily a snow event across upstate PA, interior upstate NJ, NY and New England and rain will dominate from southern NJ-to- the southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula-to-southeastern Virginia. Travel conditions will become quite difficult for the Wednesday PM and Thursday AM commutes from this major winter storm.

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12:00 PM (Tuesday) | *****High impact storm to bring accumulating snow, ice, rain, and strong winds to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later tomorrow into early Thursday****

Paul Dorian

A high impact storm is coming to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US at mid-week with significant snow for some, ice and rain for others and winds will become a big factor as well. The big cities along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor will have accumulating snow as well as a period of mixed precipitation and the heaviest snowfall amounts will be on the northwest side of the I-95 corridor. Rain will dominate in areas from coastal southern New Jersey to the southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula to southeastern Virginia.

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2:00 PM (SUN) | *****A stormy week with Monday storm that begins with rain in the Mid-Atlantic and then accumulating snow for some…major storm at mid-week to bring significant snow, ice and rain*****

Paul Dorian

This will be a stormy week in the Mid-Atlantic region with two storms to deal with during the next few days. The first storm on Monday will begin with rain in all areas of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but as colder air filters from a strengthening high pressure system to the north, a changeover to accumulating snow is likely to take place in suburban areas to the north and west of the big cities. A second and powerful storm will arrive at mid-week and it is likely to result in significant snow, ice and rain for the Mid-Atlantic region with a mixture possible in parts of the metro areas, heavy snowfall to the north and west, and primarily rain near and along coastal sections of southern New Jersey and the Delmarva.

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11:30 AM (Sat) | *Significant snow threat continues for mid-week in Mid-Atlantic/NE US…potential exists for most snow in years in some areas…preceding storm to produce rain and some accumulating snow*

Paul Dorian

The interesting and active weather pattern of recent weeks will continue into at least the middle of the month with two storms on the table for this week in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. The first storm for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will come on Monday and an even bigger threat comes at mid-week with the greatest potential impact. In fact, the mid-week storm could turn out to be a major snowstorm for a large part of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In the short term, the weather remains mild during the next couple of days in much of the eastern half of the nation, but a colder air mass is going to filter into the northeastern quadrant of the nation on Sunday night and Monday following the passage of a cold front - setting the stage for a very wintry week.

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