The stage is set…Arctic air is in place anchored by strong high pressure to the north and a major and complex storm system is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region and it will be a long duration event with impact from Sunday into Tuesday. Accumulations of 6+ inches are possible in the DC metro region with 12+ inches possible in the Philly and NYC metro areas. The storm will come in two phases with the first part associated with a process called “overrunning” and the second phase featuring a major coastal storm. The combination of the potential heavy snow and strong winds may prompt the need for “blizzard warnings” to be issued in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region for this upcoming event.
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Arctic air has its grip on the Mid-Atlantic region and it won’t loosen its control anytime soon. Winds will howl today out of the NW and the Arctic cold will stick around through the weekend. A long duration winter storm event will get underway on Sunday and, as a storm intensifies off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, impact can continue all the way into early Tuesday with significant snow accumulations of at least several inches on the table.
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Winds have increased markedly today as an Arctic air mass arrives in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from the eastern part of Canada. Temperatures will plunge in the overnight hours and Friday promises to be the coldest day of the winter season so far with continuing biting-cold NW winds. The Arctic cold will stick around well into the upcoming weekend and attention will turn to the west as the next winter storm crosses the nation. That storm poses a threat for significant accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region and it could turn out to be a long duration event with potential impact all the way from Sunday into Tuesday.
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Yesterday’s light wintry mix in the Mid-Atlantic region has pushed off to the northeast and a look ahead includes an Arctic blast and a potential major winter storm. Increasingly strong NW winds later tomorrow will signal the arrival of an Arctic blast that will bring temperatures down to the teens by early Friday and the last day of the work week will turn out to be the coldest so far this season. The Arctic cold will stick around well into the upcoming weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and attention here will turn to the west as the next winter storm crosses the nation. That storm poses a threat for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region beginning late in the upcoming weekend and it could turn out to be a significant and long duration event with an impact all the way into late Tuesday.
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A wintry mess of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and/or plain rain continues in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-day and temperatures remain near the freezing mark in many locations. As a result, there can be slick spots this afternoon and evening on untreated surfaces in suburban locations along the I-95 corridor even as the precipitation winds down. After a drier and quieter day on Wednesday, low pressure will intensify off the Carolina coastline on Thursday and winds in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor will pick up noticeably as a very cold air mass pushes in from the northwest. The end of the week and the beginning of the weekend will indeed feature some of the coldest air yet this season and then attention will turn to the next storm threat which could bring snow by late in the weekend or the early part of next week.
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A wintry mess of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region as low pressure heads from the south-central states to the Ohio Valley. A dense dry and cold air mass is in place across the Mid-Atlantic region and it will be reluctant to give up its ground as moisture pushes in this direction from the west-to-southwest. As a result, frozen precipitation is a good bet during this event in the entire DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and the progression of the moisture field to the northeast will be quite slow. The arrival time in the DC metro region should be 4 or 5 pm and there is the threat for a burst of heavier snow by early tonight - an hour or two after the onset of the mixed precipitation. Arrival time in the Philly area is late this evening and precipitation will probably hold off until tomorrow morning for the NYC metro region.
Looking ahead, the active weather pattern will continue and another storm is going to intensify near the Carolina coastline Wednesday night/Thursday and its impact in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is likely to be limited. Yet another storm could travel across the country this weekend and perhaps have an impact in the Mid-Atlantic region in the Sunday/Monday time frame.
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A wintry mess of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region early this week as low pressure heads from the central states to the Ohio Valley. A cold, dry air mass will still be in place on Monday morning when moisture begins to head in this direction from the west-to-southwest. This dense air mass will be reluctant to give up its ground; consequently, the northeastward progression of the precipitation along the I-95 corridor will be rather slow and some frozen precipitation is a good bet. In addition, the moisture field will tend to break apart some by the time it reaches areas to the north of the PA/MD border. Arrival time in the DC metro region is likely mid-to-late afternoon on Monday, late evening in Philly, but not until early Tuesday in NYC. A late week storm is likely to head towards the Carolina coastline with little impact likely in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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A frontal passage later today will usher in a very cold, dry air mass for the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with highs confined to the 30’s on both days all along the I-95 corridor. This cold, dry air mass will still be in place on Monday morning when moisture begins to head in this direction from a low pressure system over the Ohio Valley. A second low pressure area will form off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Tuesday and the combination of these two systems will result in a wintry mess in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Monday into Tuesday.
In areas to the north of the PA/MD border, snow and/or ice are likely to be the primary precipitation types and accumulations of up to a few inches are on the table. To the south of the PA/MD border, there is likely to be a mix of ice and rain with some snow possible at times and small accumulations are possible. Another storm could impact the Mid-Atlantic region later next week; however, its northward reach is still uncertain this far in advance and it could be suppressed to the south. Looking way ahead, there can be yet another storm threat a few days later as the active weather pattern continues into the early part of February.
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Philadelphia and New York City received traces of snow early yesterday as an upper-level wave of energy passed overhead, but there has not been anything significant in terms of snow in these two metro regions - nor in the Washington, D.C. area - since the middle of December. This “snow drought” in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor may come to a rather dramatic end over the next ten days or so. One winter storm can impact the Mid-Atlantic region from later Monday into Tuesday and then a second threat exists for later next week. There have been numerous threats of snow in recent weeks for the I-95 corridor and all have fizzled out, but there is perhaps better cause for optimism this time around for snow lovers in the I-95 corridor.
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This likely should fall in the “Department of Redundancy Department”, but there are snow threats coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the near future. A snowstorm in the middle of December that brought accumulating snow to the I-95 corridor has been followed by lots of threats, but no actual snowfall of any significance. While there is a snow shower threat late tonight and early tomorrow, a threat for later in the week that looked promising several days ago appears to have once again fizzled as we approach potential event time. Looking ahead to next week, there are likely not one, but two opportunities for accumulating snow (and ice) in the I-95 corridor and we’ll closely monitor these threats in coming days to see if they actually come to fruition this time around and make snow lovers happy.
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