Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day today and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system will easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and then the main event will come tonight and Saturday from this intensifying storm. Very cold air will push into the eastern states during the height of the storm on Saturday and it’ll be bitter cold tomorrow night with brutal wind chills. This Arctic blast will plunge all the way down to southern Florida and even to Cuba. Miami is likely to experience lows in the 30’s this weekend for the first time since 2010.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out during the day on Friday across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US as an Arctic cold frontal system arrives and small accumulations are even possible. The main event by the rapidly intensifying ocean storm will take place on Friday night and Saturday. Very cold air will follow on its heels later this weekend all the way down to the southern part of Florida where Miami could see lows in the 30’s for the first time since 2010.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and mid-day Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. The exact timing of the rapid intensification and the ultimate track of the storm are still somewhat unclear at this time and while a significant impact appears quite likely for eastern New England, there is a chance that at least part of the Mid-Atlantic region escapes with only a moderate or minor impact.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this week across the eastern US and there is continued potential for an intense ocean storm at week’s end. Many ingredients are likely to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure somewhere off the US east coast. These ingredients include the following: strong jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of very cold air to the north and west, relatively warm waters in the western Atlantic, and deepening low pressure aloft that will at some point take on a “negative” tilt in its axis orientation. It is still a bit too early to determine the ultimate storm track and exactly when the explosive intensification will take place, but all residents in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US should continue to closely monitor this unfolding intense ocean storm scenario.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this last full week of January across the eastern US and there is growing potential for an important ocean storm early this weekend. Any impact in the Mid-Atlantic region would likely be in the Friday night/Saturday time frame and it will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm and its intensification rate. Many ingredients are going to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure including the following: jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of cold air to the north and west, and deepening low pressure aloft that takes on a “negative” tilt. At this time, it is just too early to tell if this ocean storm will track well off the coast, close in or perhaps even ends up taking a slightly inland track which is a scenario that is still on the table though not too likely. It certainly looks like it’ll be an interesting next few days as we track this growing threat.
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An Arctic frontal system will work its way through the Mid-Atlantic region early tomorrow and some “post-frontal” snow can cause slick spots on the roads from about the time of the AM rush hour to around mid-day. Rain will break out later tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ahead of the Arctic front, but then as colder air filters into the region, precipitation will mix with and then change over to snow right around morning commute time on Thursday. Accumulations are likely to end up in the 1-3 inch range by mid-day tomorrow after the changeover takes place. Bitter cold conditions will follow the system for tomorrow night and Friday with overnight lows in the 10-15 degree range and highs doing no better than the 20’s to end the work week.
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An Arctic frontal boundary zone will be a key player in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days as it will be a focus area for the formation of low pressure systems. One such low pressure system should bring a period of accumulating snow early Thursday upon the arrival of the next Arctic blast. Another low pressure system will form along the stalled-out frontal boundary zone at week’s end and the extent to which it can push to the north will dictate how much snow, if any, can fall on Friday night and/or Saturday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Yet another system will have to be watched for later in the upcoming weekend as the cold and active weather pattern in the eastern US will continue right through the rest of the month.
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Winter will not loosen its grip anytime soon in the eastern US as it appears a very cold weather pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the month. In addition, the overall pattern looks to be quite active as well with multiple storm threats possible and perhaps one by the early part of the upcoming weekend.
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Very cold, dry and dense Arctic air is well established this morning in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US at the same time low pressure and its associated moisture field are now pushing to the north from the southeastern states...not a good combination. A significant ice and snow event is now unfolding for the interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas and snow will push into the Mid-Atlantic region later in the day and early tonight with front-end accumulations in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. With an influx of milder air from the ocean, a transition will take place in the I-95 corridor from snow to sleet to freezing rain and ultimately to plain rain in some areas. In addition to the wide range of precipitation types, this storm will bring high and potentially damaging winds and coastal flooding to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Looking ahead, another storm could very well threaten the same part of the country next weekend.
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An Arctic air mass poured into the northeastern quadrant of the nation in the overnight hours resulting in very cold and extremely dry conditions. At the same time, a vigorous disturbance in the upper atmosphere has pushed southeastward from the central Plains into the southern Plains. This system will edge into the Deep South by later tonight and surface low pressure will form in the northern Gulf region. On Sunday, the intensifying low pressure system will push northward through the eastern states with its expanding moisture field producing a wide range of impacts from snow-to-ice-to-rain. High (and potentially damaging) winds and coastal flooding will become an increasing concern with this storm on Sunday and impacts will last well into the day on Monday; especially, across the northeastern states.
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