Cold air outbreaks continue to work their way from Canada into the US as we wind down the month of April and it appears they will continue to do so right through the early part of May. As long as this kind of pattern holds, there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather outbreaks in the US and an increased chance for the formation of strong storm systems. In fact, more severe weather is possible on Wednesday in places like Texas and Oklahoma as cold, dry air advances from the west and clashes with entrenched warm, humid air across the south-central US. This severe weather threat will then shift eastward to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday afternoon.
Looking ahead, there are signs for a soaking rain event in the eastern US from Friday into Saturday and then a second and perhaps stronger system may form later in the weekend and produce more significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. This second storm system may feature some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity of its own in its warm sector from late Sunday into Monday and perhaps even some wet snow and/or ice on its cold side in some of the higher-elevation, interior spots of the northeastern US…just as we begin the month of May.
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Tropical activity is likely to be nearly normal this season in the Atlantic Basin with competing factors in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In a normal Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 of those actually attain “major” classification status (i.e., category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale).
The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which generally acts to suppress activity in the Atlantic Basin due to increased wind shear. The development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures comes after three years of La Nina conditions. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean features plenty of warmer-than-normal water which is generally favorable for the development and/or intensification of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature pattern in the western Atlantic Ocean makes the east coast somewhat more vulnerable than normal to what I like to call “home-grown” tropical hits during this upcoming tropical season.
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Cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US continue on a regular basis as we progress through the month of April and this has led to occasional accumulating snow across parts of the northern US and to severe weather outbreaks farther to the south. The leading edge of the latest cold air outbreak pushed into the middle of the nation last night resulting in some tornadic activity across Oklahoma and several inches of snow can fall later today/tonight in the Northern Plains. This strong cold front will slide across the Ohio Valley early Saturday and then impact the eastern states from later Saturday into Saturday night. The impact in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC can include some heavy rainfall and there is the potential for severe thunderstorm activity as well.
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The Phillies are scheduled to play the White Sox tonight in Chicago, but the day has started there with snow, temperatures near freezing and wind chills in the teens. In fact, snow is falling today across much of the Upper Midwest from Minnesota-to-Michigan on the north side to Illinois and Indiana to the south. Unfortunately, for those waiting on spring, it appears there will be additional cold air outbreaks across the northern US during the next couple of weeks and this will continue the threat of accumulating snow in many sections from the Rocky Mountain States to the interior Northeast US. The next cold air outbreak will arrive in the nation’s midsection by the upcoming weekend and the cold front at its leading edge could generate heavy rainfall in the eastern US from late Saturday into Sunday.
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A line of thunderstorms extends this morning all the way from Texas to the central Great Lakes and tornado watches as issued by the National Weather Service encompass this entire zone. This severe weather outbreak represents just the latest in a series of recent “clashes” in the atmosphere between cold, dry air to the west charging into warm, humid air to the east. Strong surface low pressure over the northwestern Great Lakes is generating blizzard conditions across the Dakotas and a powerful surface cold front extends from the center all the way south into the northern Gulf region. This same cold front reaches the eastern seaboard later Thursday and while certainly not as widespread of a threat as today, there is the chance for some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity near the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, a chilly Canadian-borne air mass will push into the Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic for the upcoming Easter weekend.
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There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and it looks like another one is on the way from later tomorrow into Wednesday. The areas of concern include the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the ingredients that will come together to destabilize the atmosphere include jet streaks at multiple layers, cold, dry air mass charging to the south and east, and warm, humid air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season thanks in large part to the recent two outbreaks and, unfortunately, many more are likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday. Meanwhile, in the cold sector of the storm system, the air will be cold enough for accumulating snow all the way from the Rockies to the Dakotas and, in some spots, this could amount to as much as 1-2 feet.
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Strong low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this morning continues to wreak havoc across the nation. Last night, tornadoes broke out from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and, in the cold sector of the storm, accumulating snow fell across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Snow continues today across the Great Lakes region this morning and powerful potentially damaging winds have reached the Mid-Atlantic region to along with rain, scattered strong thunderstorms, and very mild conditions. A dry slot should result in some sunshine this afternoon in the I-95 corridor which will only boost chances for late day/evening severe weather with damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes on the table.
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Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season and there is the likelihood for another outbreak on Friday night centered on the Mississippi Valley region. In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere will become very unstable by Friday night in the Mississippi Valley region with a multitude of ingredients coming together including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a strong surface cold front, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west behind it. A similar weather pattern late last week resulted in an outbreak of tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama that tragically resulted in the death of at least 26 people. The powerful cold front that will play a major role in the severe weather outbreak on Friday night will plow eastward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the eastern states possibly resulting in damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in those sections of the country.
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Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season and there is the potential for another severe weather outbreak at the end of this week. In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere will become very unstable by Friday night in the Mississippi Valley region with a multitude of ingredients coming together including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west. A similar weather pattern late last week resulted in an outbreak of tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama that tragically resulted in the death of at least 26 people. The powerful cold front that will play a major role in the late week severe weather threat in the Mississippi Valley will plow through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern states on Saturday possibly resulting in damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in those sections of the country.
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