The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has been largely quiet during the past few weeks after the dissipation of Hurricane Beryl which reached category 5 status over the Caribbean Sea and then ultimately made landfall in Texas as a category 1 storm. There is now a strong tropical wave that is nearing Cuba and it may spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by later this weekend as an intensifying storm. There are signs that at some point early next week the northward progression of this system may be stymied, and a stalling or even a “looping” storm track is on the table. This possibility could lead to some very heavy rainfall amounts in certain locations…a prospect to monitor closely next few days. In fact, we may be dealing with this tropical storm system as late as at the end of next week or weekend somewhere up along the eastern seaboard.
One of the contributing factors to what should be an active next couple of months in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is the strengthening of La Nina across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in that part of the world’s largest ocean have dropped quite sharply during the past week or so suggesting La Nina may indeed be an important (and favorable) factor for development and intensification of tropical storm systems in the Atlantic Basin during the second half of the tropical season.
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The current heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic region likely reaches a peak today with some spots along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor reaching the 100 degree mark for afternoon highs. Temperatures will remain quite hot on Wednesday, but likely a few degrees lower than today due to more abundant cloud cover ahead of an incoming cold frontal system. Occasional showers and thunderstorms are likely from later today through tomorrow night. Any thunderstorm during this next 36 hours or so can reach severe levels producing torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts, and hail and, unfortunately, power outages are on the table. The passage of the cold front late Wednesday night will usher in a cooler air mass for Thursday and Friday and the overall weather pattern may not include any more in the way of extreme heat for much of the eastern half of the nation through the remainder of the month of July.
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Powerful storms rocked the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late yesterday and last night and cleansed the atmosphere of the high heat and humidity…at least for a few days. One of the ingredients involved with yesterday’s unstable atmosphere was a cold frontal system that has edged off the east coast On Thursday morning; however, we are not done yet with this system. That cold front will stall out later today right along the east coast and copious amounts of tropical moisture will ride up along its boundary zone from tomorrow into Saturday leading to additional showers and thunderstorms around here and some of the rain will be heavy. The high heat of recent days has backed off for the next few days, but it will return in full force in the Mid-Atlantic region for the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday time period and 100 degree highs are on the table.
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Rainfall has been rather sporadic in much of the Mid-Atlantic region during the past couple of months with some spots getting drenched by small-scale thunderstorms and other areas staying largely rain-free. The end result of this weather pattern has been the browning of many lawns and the need for some soaking rainfall. The best chance in awhile for some heavy rainfall on a more widespread basis comes to the Mid-Atlantic region in the time period from later tomorrow into the upcoming weekend. The combination of tropical moisture associated with Beryl’s remains and a stalling frontal system along the coast will enhance this chance for heavy rainfall and, hopefully, there will be some improvement to area lawns.
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Hurricane Beryl is now classified as a category 4 storm and will impact Jamaica shortly with hurricane conditions as it continues to push across the Caribbean Sea in a west-northwest direction. On this path, Hurricane Beryl will slide across the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico on Friday and then push to a position out over the open warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The weakening of Beryl which began late yesterday will likely continue for the next couple of days as it bypasses Jamaica and then crosses land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. After that, Beryl may very well re-intensify this weekend and it likely shifts to a northwesterly direction which would put southeastern Texas on the table for a possible landfall by Sunday night/early Monday.
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Hurricane Beryl remains classified as a category 5 storm and is moving at a pretty good clip (22 mph) across the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Beryl will move very close to or right over the island of Jamaica on Wednesday and then likely reach the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico by the end of the week. After that, the likely scenario has a weakened Beryl moving over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it very well can take a turn to the northwest late in the weekend meaning a landfall in southeastern Texas is on the table.
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Hurricane Beryl is now moving across the southern Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea as a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. This system has a chance to intensify into category 5 status (sustained winds of 157 mph or higher) in the next day or two as it treks to the west-northwest over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. On this current track, Hurricane Beryl will move close to the island of Jamaica by mid-week and then likely reach the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico by the end of the week. After that, the likely scenario has a weakened Beryl moving west towards eastern Mexico; however, a turn towards the northwest and southeastern Texas cannot be ruled out later this weekend.
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There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin with one located over the western Caribbean Sea and the other positioned in the eastern tropical Atlantic. While the frontrunner tropical system may indeed generate lots of rainfall for the Yucatan Peninsula and then eastern Mexico, it is the trailing system that may ultimately become more of a concern. The tropical system still well out in the Atlantic has a good chance for intensification in coming days and it very well could become quite an important player on the tropical scene in about 7-10 days or so.
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Several ingredients will come together late today and tonight to raise the chance of severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The combination of an approaching surface cool front, higher heat and humidity, a strong low-level jet, wind shear, and an upper-level trough will result in showers and thunderstorms from later today into tonight and any thunderstorm can reach severe levels. The severe weather threats include damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and large hail. In addition, given the expected formation of strong wind shear, there will also be the potential of isolated tornadoes.
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While quite warm this week in places like Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia, the worst of the heat and humidity is still to come. In fact, humidity levels have been rather manageable in these areas during the past few days limiting “heat indices” which are meant to reflect how weather conditions “feel” to humans given the heat and humidity. Large-scale upper-level ridging has been centered overhead during the past few days allowing for a bit of an onshore flow of air in places like D.C., Philly, and southern New Jersey, but that pattern will change in the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time frame resulting in higher heat and humidity. In addition, the chance of showers and storms will increase beginning later tomorrow and the threat of rain will continue this weekend and any storm that forms can produce locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts.
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