A colder and active weather pattern is indeed unfolding for the central and eastern US and it is likely to bring two threats of snow to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several days. First, an upper-level wave will rotate around the base of a large-scale trough of low pressure later tomorrow and it can produce snow showers in the area and maybe even a period of steadier snow; primarily, in the region from DC/northern Delmarva-to-southeastern PA/southern NJ…small accumulations are on the table. A surge of Arctic air will follow the system later tomorrow night setting us up for a cold weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. A more important threat of snow comes for late Sunday night and Monday as low pressure moves eastward from the Midwest with significant accumulations on the table in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region including the DC-to-Philly corridor.
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A much colder-than-normal weather pattern is about to commence for the central and eastern US and it looks like it’ll be one with some staying power. In fact, this upcoming cold stretch for much of the nation may feature some extreme cold and very cold conditions may penetrate all the way into the southern states from Texas-to-Florida. In addition, there are likely to be multiple snow threats in this developing weather pattern that can impact much of the central and eastern US to go along with the expected much colder-than-normal temperatures. Next week looks particularly interesting in a period that may feature some extremely cold air and multiple threats of snow including one in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time frame for the Midwest and at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous teleconnection indices support the notion of a much colder-than-normal weather pattern, and an unfolding stratospheric warming event enhances the idea that the much colder-than-normal temperature pattern can be sustained well into the month of January.
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A much colder-than-normal weather pattern will set up for the central and eastern US during early January and it looks like it’ll be one with some staying power. In fact, this upcoming cold stretch for much of the nation may feature some extreme cold and very cold conditions may penetrate all the way into the Deep South from Texas-to-Florida. In addition, there are likely to be multiple snow threats in this developing weather pattern that can impact much of the central and eastern US to go along with the expected much colder-than-normal temperatures. Next week looks particularly interesting in a period that may feature multiple snow and ice threats and potentially some extremely cold air. Numerous teleconnection indices support the notion of a much colder-than-normal weather pattern, and an unfolding stratospheric warming event enhances the idea that the much colder-than-normal temperature pattern can be sustained well into the month of January.
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A much colder-than-normal weather pattern will set up for the central and eastern US during early January and it looks like it’ll be one with some staying power. In fact, this upcoming cold stretch for much of the nation may feature some extreme cold and very cold conditions may penetrate all the way into the Deep South from Texas-to-Florida. In addition, there are likely to be multiple snow threats in this developing weather pattern that can impact much of the central and eastern US to go along with the expected much colder-than-normal temperatures. Next week (1/5 to 1/12) looks particularly interesting in a period that may feature multiple snow and ice threats and potentially some extremely cold air. Numerous teleconnection indices support the notion of a much colder-than-normal weather pattern, and an unfolding stratospheric warming event enhances the idea that the much colder-than-normal temperature pattern can be sustained well into the month of January.
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The lowest temperatures so far this season greeted the new week in the Mid-Atlantic region with single digits in many suburban areas along I-95 and as low as ten below in the Poconos of northeastern PA. In fact, this morning’s temperature readings were the lowest in many spots of the Mid-Atlantic since about Christmas time two years ago when a brief, but severe cold snap hit the area. An Arctic high will weaken and shift offshore tonight and then low pressure to our north will bring a period of snow and ice on Tuesday morning. While this won’t be a heavy precipitation event on Tuesday morning, a burst of snow and ice can certainly cause problems on roadways which are quite cold given the recent chill.
Looking ahead, there are plenty of signs for a cold pattern to emerge in January with a deepening trough of low pressure likely to form over the eastern states. This upcoming cold pattern is likely to have some staying power as well given the development of strong high-latitude blocking across Canada. Numerous teleconnection indices support the notion of a cold pattern in January for much of the central and eastern US. In addition, given the potential positioning of the trough in the central and eastern US, the southern branch of the jet stream may very well become quite active which enhances the chance for snowstorms in an overall cold pattern.
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The combination of a weakening “clipper” low pressure system and an intensifying ocean low that is to develop an inverted trough will raise the chance of some accumulating snow from later tomorrow into early Saturday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. There can be a coating to as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow by early Saturday across portion of eastern PA, much of New Jersey, and the New York City metro region and a coating of snow is possible as far south as the DC metro region. As the intensifying ocean low exits off to the northeast on Saturday, the door will be open for the coldest air mass of the season to ride into the Mid-Atlantic region on stiffening NW winds. A look ahead to early January suggests there will be the return of “high-latitude blocking” across Canada which tends to favor colder weather in the central and eastern US and teleconnection indices support the notion of an overall colder weather pattern.
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The combination of a weakening “clipper” low pressure system and an intensifying ocean low that develops an inverted trough will raise the chance of some accumulating snow from later Friday into early Saturday across the northern Mid-Atlantic region to include eastern PA, New Jersey and New York City. Farther to the south, snow showers are possible in the DC metro region by Friday night, but accumulating snow there is less likely than to the north of the PA/MD border. As the intensifying ocean low pulls away to the northeast on Saturday, the coldest air mass of the season so far will ride into the Mid-Atlantic region on stiff northwest winds and the lowest temperatures in this cold snap are likely to occur early Monday morning.
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There have been many football games played in cold weather over the years at Penn State’s Beaver Stadium, but this one coming up on Saturday will be the first of its kind as an official playoff game under the new format by the NCAA. In fact, the coldest air of the season will pour into the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from this weekend into early next week on the backside of strengthening low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The lowest temperatures in this upcoming cold blast are likely to occur early Monday morning with upper single digits on the table for places like State College, PA, and the lower teens possible in many suburban locations along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...pretty impressive readings indeed considering there is no snow cover in the I-95 corridor. Temperatures will turn much milder early next week across the central US and a moderation in temperatures will reach the eastern seaboard by Christmas Day which falls on Wednesday of next week.
As far as snow is concerned, there is the chance for snow shower activity on Friday and Friday night in the Mid-Atlantic region and perhaps even a period of steadier snow. The combination of a “clipper” low pressure system dropping to the south and east from the Great Lakes and developing low pressure over the western Atlantic will bring us the threat of snow. The speed at which these two systems “link up” will dictate how much snow can fall on Friday and Friday…small accumulations are on the table and the situation bears watching during the next few days.
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The month of December has started off with a few Arctic air outbreaks into the central and eastern US and while the overall pattern may turn somewhat milder for part of next week, there are multiple signals pointing to additional cold air outbreaks from later next week into the month of January. In addition, the unfolding weather pattern appears to be quite active with numerous storm systems to deal going through the second half of the month of December.
One of the signals for additional cold air outbreaks revolves around an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO. A second centers around a phenomenon that features warming over the polar region in the upper part of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere. Finally, a teleconnection index known as the Pacific-North American (PNA) is likely to feature a positive phase for much of the rest of the month and this generally favors high pressure ridging across the western US and Canada which, in turn, is usually favorable for cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US.
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There was some rainfall in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Monday which was certainly a welcome happening; however, overall totals were on the low side due to the quick movement of the low pressure system. The rain event coming from late Tuesday night through Wednesday will be quite a different story, however, and likely the biggest single rainstorm in this area since early June. Rainfall amounts can exceed 2 inches all along the I-95 corridor and a few thunderstorms can mix into the picture. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to this heavy rain event
In addition to the rain, the winds will become an important factor; especially, along coastal sections of the eastern seaboard from the Carolinas to New England where a low-level jet is going to become very intense. In fact, there is the potential for winds to gusts to 60 mph late Wednesday across portions of eastern New England where the low-level jet will reach its greatest strength.
In terms of temperatures, it’ll be unseasonably mild through much of the day on Wednesday - ahead of the strong cold front - temperatures will drop sharply late in the day or early tonight on the heels of its passage. This cold air intrusion can lead to a brief period of snow in some of the N/W suburbs along the I-95 corridor where small accumulations cannot be ruled out this evening. Finally, this cold blast will result in yet another “Great Lakes snow event” for those areas just downstream of Lakes Erie and Ontario (e.g., Erie, PA, Watertown, NY).
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