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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

7:00 AM | **Occasional heavy rain today with possible strong thunderstorms...localized flooding is a concern**

Paul Dorian

Surface low pressure will form later this morning across northern Virginia and intensify as it pulls northward through Pennsylvania and into New York State.  Aiding in the development of this powerful surface low pressure system is a combination of strong upper-level energy and energetic jet streaks and this setup will lead to the formation of occasional heavy rain and strong-to-severe thunderstorms for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region during the mid-day and afternoon hours; especially, from Route I-95 to the coast. On the backside of the storm, it’ll turn much cooler and windy on Friday with additional light rain showers likely in the I-95 corridor and accumulating snow is likely in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains. After a cool day on Saturday, great weather is coming for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. One final note, grounds are now pretty well saturated after the recent soaking rain events and this raises concern for localized flooding today and tonight associated with today’s downpours.

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12:20 PM | **Major storm to bring heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms to the I-95 corridor**

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing during the past several days has one more potent system to send our way and it looks like it’ll be a major storm with some heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region.  Low pressure will form early tomorrow just east of the mountains in northern Virginia and then intensify rapidly as it pushes northward through Pennsylvania and into western New York.  Aiding in the development of this powerful low pressure system and possible severe weather outbreak will be a combination of strong upper-level energy and energetic jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere.  The main severe weather threat area today is in the Southeast US with a focus on Georgia and South Carolina, but that'll transfer to the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday; especially, in those sections near the coastline.

On the backside of the storm, it’ll turn much cooler and windy on Friday with additional rain showers likely in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.  In addition, this major storm will likely generate accumulating snow on Friday in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains.   One final note, grounds are now pretty well saturated in areas north of the PA/MD border after recent soaking rain events and this will raise concerns for localized flooding on Thursday and Thursday night.

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7:00 AM | **Another heavy rain event coming to the NYC metro region...flooding a concern as grounds are saturated and strong storms are possible**

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing during the past couple of weeks has one more potent system to send our way and it looks like it will produce heavy rain around here (1.5-2.0 inches) and ingredients may come together for strong thunderstorms. A major storm will develop in the Mid-Atlantic region by tomorrow afternoon and this combined with vigorous upper-level energy and powerful low-level and upper-level jet streaks should result in a significant rainfall and possible strong thunderstorms. Grounds are now well saturated after the recent soaking rain events and this will raise concerns for localized flooding on Thursday and Thursday night. On the backside of the storm, it’ll turn much cooler and stay windy on Friday around here with additional rain showers possible. Accumulating snow is likely on Friday from the eastern Great Lakes region to the Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia.

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2:55 PM | **Severe weather and heavy rain threat for the Mid-Atlantic region**

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing during the past couple of weeks has one more potent system to send our way and it looks like it can produce heavy rain here in the Mid-Atlantic region and ingredients may come together for a severe weather outbreak. A major storm will develop in the Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday afternoon and this combined with vigorous upper-level energy and powerful low-level and upper-level jet streaks could result in a severe weather outbreak in addition to some heavy rainfall. On the backside of the storm, it’ll turn much cooler and windy on Friday with additional rain showers possible and accumulating snow is likely in the Ohio Valley and in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains.  One final note, grounds are now pretty well saturated after the recent soaking rain events and this will raise concerns for localized flooding on Thursday and Thursday night.

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7:00 AM | *Lingering rain or drizzle today and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm...another significant rain event on Thursday/Thursday night with thunderstorms possible*

Paul Dorian

A warm frontal system generated rain in our area during the overnight hours and today there will be occasional showers or drizzle today and perhaps even an afternoon thunderstorm as a cold front approaches. Following the frontal passage, high pressure will build into the region for the mid-week, but then an intense low pressure system will produce significant rain here from late Wednesday night into Thursday night - and perhaps even some strong-to-severe thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.  The steadiest, heaviest rain from this next system is likely to be off to our northeast come early Friday, but it’ll turn quite windy and cool here with additional rain showers possible as deep upper-level low spins over the Northeast US. Accumulating snow is likely to occur on the backside of this late week event in the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains from NY to Tennessee.

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12:20 PM | **Two more rain events in the Mid-Atlantic between tonight and Friday…rain and perhaps a strong thunderstorm tonight/Tuesday...heavy rain/severe thunderstorm threat Thursday into Friday**

Paul Dorian

Two strong upper-level waves of energy will bring rain events to the Mid-Atlantic region between tonight and Friday and each event can feature strong or severe thunderstorms.  The first wave arrives this evening and will produce rain in the overnight hours in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two.  On Tuesday, the steadiest and heaviest rain will be gone, but there can be an occasional shower and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two in the I-95 corridor as it turns noticeably windy and warmer.  

The next event looks especially volatile and will feature a powerful low pressure system in the Northeast US and it'll impact the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from Thursday into Friday night. Rain is likely to be quite heavy on Thursday and Thursday night and there can be some severe thunderstorm activity in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. On the backside of the storm, it’ll turn much cooler and very windy around here on Friday with additional rain showers likely. Accumulating snow is likely on Friday in the Ohio Valley and also in the higher elevation locations of western NY, western PA, western MD, West Virginia, and the Smoky Mountains of the Tennessee Valley. One final note, grounds are now pretty well saturated after the recent heavy rain event and this will raise concerns for localized flooding during each of the this week’s rain events.

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7:00 AM | *Two rain events this week as active pattern continues and the ground is already pretty saturated*

Paul Dorian

After a pretty tranquil weekend, there will be two rain events this week as the nationwide active weather pattern continues. The first rain event will take place tonight and Tuesday as the next wave of low pressure arrives from the "wave train" that has been crossing the country from west-to-east in recent days. This initial event will likely be a moderate rain event with a possible strong thunderstorm in some spots. The total rainfall by later tomorrow should be anywhere from a 1.25 to 2.00 inches and keep in the mind, the ground is now saturated. The second rain event this week will feature a powerful low pressure system and arrives here on Thursday.  It could result in heavy rainfall around here and possibly even some severe thunderstorm activity in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. It'll turn windy and noticeably cooler on Friday on the backside of that storm with possible lingering rain showers around here and accumulating snow in the mountains of western NY, western PA, western MD and West Virginia. One final note, as far as early planting is concerned, it appears there will be occasional cold shots in the Mid-Atlantic region going right into at least the middle part of the month.

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7:00 AM | **Heavy rain event today/tonight...active pattern brings more significant rain next week**

Paul Dorian

Talk about going out like a lion! March will end with a heavy rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region and the result could be more than three inches of rain in some spots by early tomorrow morning.  The rain will fall heavily at times today and tonight and there can even be a strong thunderstorm or two in the mix.  Any lingering rain early tomorrow will give way to mainly cloudy skies and then Sunday is likely to turn out to be a pretty decent day.  However, the next wave in a series of waves traversing the country from west-to-east in this active weather pattern will likely bring more significant rain to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later Monday into Tuesday.  Following that early week rain threat, there are signs for another big rain event here in the Mid-Atlantic region late next week – most likely in the later Thursday/Friday time period - and this one looks like it could be followed by an impressive surge of cold air for the eastern US.

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12:40 PM | **Active weather pattern to bring heavy rain to the Mid-Atlantic, significant snow to interior upstate NY/New England/Colorado Rockies, and severe weather to the Midwest, southern US**

Paul Dorian

The next week to ten days will feature numerous strong upper-level waves of energy traveling from the eastern Pacific Ocean all way across to the northeastern US on a fairly regular basis averaging every few days or so. Today's tranquil weather in the Mid-Atlantic region will soon give way to a major rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor that could result in more than two inches of rain by early Saturday in some spots. This active weather pattern will not only bring soaking rain to the Mid-Atlantic as we close out this current work week, but there will be another chance for significant rain early next week and then yet another chance late next week. In addition to the heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic, this active pattern will bring substantial springtime snowfall to interior upstate New York and New England as well as across the Colorado Rockies in the western US. Severe weather will also be a major consequence of this energetic weather pattern with numerous threats coming to the Midwest, south-central, and southeastern US.

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7:00 AM | *A soaking rain event on Friday and others are coming next week (late Monday/early Tuesday, late Thursday)*

Paul Dorian

An active weather will bring multiple low pressure systems across the country over the next week to ten days and each one of these systems can generate significant rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. The next wave of low pressure in this train of systems arrives here by early tomorrow and this end-of-week event is likely to be quite a soaker with up to two inches possible in much of the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.  Another low pressure system is already taking shape over the Pacific Ocean and this one could bring more rain to the region by late Monday/early Tuesday of next week.  Beyond that, yet another system could produce significant rainfall around here on Thursday or so of next week.  In addition to the rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region, this active weather pattern is likely to produce significant snowfall in the Rocky Mountains and interior New England as well as severe weather in much of the central and southern US. In fact, up to a foot of snow is possible in both of these sections of the country by the weekend.

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