Scattered showers have moved into the region as a strong cold front slowly advances towards the east coast and they’ll continue off and on for the next several hours with a possible strong thunderstorm or two mixed in as well. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late in the day or early tonight and continue into early Saturday as low pressure forms along the frontal boundary zone and enhances upward motion over the Mid-Atlantic region. There can also be a strong-to-severe thunderstorm tonight and flash flooding may become a concern during some of the expected downpours. Cooler and drier air will pour into the region later tomorrow on stiff NW winds gusting to 50 mph and it’ll stay cooler-than-normal on Sunday as well. More inclement weather is likely during the first half of next week with a couple of new disturbances threatening us with additional rain - one on Monday and a second by Tuesday night. One final note, it is time this weekend to once again to turn back the clocks - a sure sign that winter is fast approaching.
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The warm-up that began on Wednesday will actually intensify today and tomorrow ahead of a strong cold frontal system and high temperatures on both days should be close to the 70 degree mark. Showers will overspread the area late tonight and continue on Friday with a thunderstorm or two possible, but the heaviest rain to fall is likely to come late tomorrow and tomorrow night. The rain can continue into early Saturday, but then cooler and drier air will pour into the Mid-Atlantic on stiff NW winds and it'll remain cooler-than-normal on Sunday as well. As a reminder, it is time this weekend to once again to turn back the clocks - a sure sign that winter is coming soon.
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Another significant rain event is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday night into Friday night. A mid-week warm up will result in high temperatures later today in the middle 60’s and 70+ degrees tomorrow and Friday afternoons ahead of a strong cold frontal system. Low pressure will form along the strong cold front later in the week and spread rain into our region by Thursday night that is likely to last into Friday night and fall heavily at times. Cooler air will follow the frontal passage for the upcoming “turn-the-clocks back” weekend.
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A strong cold front will slowly push across the nation over the next few days and it’ll have an important impact on a wide area from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard. A powerful digging jet stream in the upper atmosphere will help to carve out a deep upper-level trough by late in the week and the result of this overall unfolding weather pattern will be heavy snow across the Rockies, heavy rain in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and a severe weather threat across much of the southern US. Rain will spread into the eastern US by Thursday night as the front continues to slide slowly to the east. The rain will likely continue into Friday night in the eastern US - possibly heavy at times - as low pressure forms along the frontal boundary zone.
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It’ll remain chilly around here today, but a mid-week warm up begins on Wednesday (Halloween Day) and peaks on Thursday with highs well up in the 60’s. The warm up comes ahead of the next strong cool frontal system will should produce rain here on Thursday night and Friday, maybe even a thunderstorm, and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Temperatures trend back down to cooler-than-normal levels on Friday and Saturday following the passage of the strong cool front.
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A disturbance in the upper atmosphere will pass off to our northeast this morning and high pressure will build in for the next couple of days. It’ll remain cooler-than-normal here today and again on Tuesday as our chilly weather pattern continues for a bit longer, but then it should turn milder on Wednesday (Halloween Day) as our low-level winds turn to a southwesterly direction ahead of the next frontal system. The mid-week warm up will peak on Thursday just ahead of the next cool front which should bring us showers by Thursday night and cooler conditions again to end the work week.
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Low pressure will intensify near the Carolina coastline late today and then slowly push northward to a position over central New Jersey by mid-day Saturday and the result will be a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The ingredients are in place for this significant rain event including an entrenched cold and dry air mass in the Northeast US, copious amounts of moisture to our southwest, and an intensifying upper-level trough in the eastern US. Strong winds will also become a major factor with this intensifying storm system; especially, along coastal sections where gusts past 60 mph are possible between midnight and noon on Saturday and gusts up to 50 mph are possible across interior locations. The air in place across the Northeast US will be cold enough during this upcoming event for some frozen precipitation in interior, higher elevation spots from West Virginia/western Virginia-to-northern Pennsylvania-to-northern New England.
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An active stretch of weather gets underway later today as low pressure intensifies near the Carolina coastline and then pushes northward to southern New Jersey by mid-day tomorrow. An initial wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will contribute to a soaking rain event here from later today into Saturday and then a second disturbance will bring additional showers from late Sunday night into early Monday. Following the second system, it’ll turn dry, but remain on the chilly side of normal on Tuesday and then turn milder for Wednesday (Halloween Day).
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The ingredients are falling into place for a significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region that should get underway later tomorrow as intensifying low pressure heads up along the eastern seaboard. The combination of an entrenched cold and dry air mass, copious amounts of moisture to our southwest, and vigorous upper-level energy dropping southeastward towards the eastern US will result in a soaking rain event in the Mid-Atlantic that could yield 2+ inches in some spots by early next week. A second wave of energy in the upper atmosphere is likely to produce additional showers in the late Sunday night/early Monday time frame.
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High pressure will maintain control of the weather here today and tonight, but then strong low pressure will ride up along or near the east coast and produce significant rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into late Saturday. A second wave of energy will rotate through a deep trough in the upper atmosphere late in the weekend and keep it unsettled and chilly around here with additional showers likely from Sunday night into Monday. Dry and chilly weather should return for Tuesday and Halloween Day (Wednesday).
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