Hurricane Dorian has finally resumed some movement today as the latest measurements have it moving to the northwest at 2 mph after being stationary for nearly 24 hours. From later today into Wednesday, Hurricane Dorian should turn north-northwest and run parallel to the east coast of Florida as it picks up some forward speed. It’ll then close in on the Carolina coastline by Thursday where it is not out of the question that it makes a landfall somewhere on its way to the Outer Banks (North Carolina). After that, Hurricane Dorian will likely pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline from Thursday night into Friday with its greatest impact limited to coastal sections.
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Hurricane Dorian continues to remain nearly stationary this morning just north of Grand Bahama Island and should resume a slow northwestward movement later this morning. From later today into Wednesday, Hurricane Dorian should turn north-northwest and run parallel to the east coast of Florida as it picks up some forward speed and then it'll close in on the Carolina coastline by Thursday. After that, Hurricane Dorian will likely pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline from Thursday night into Friday with its greatest impact limited to coastal sections of Long Island and southeast CT. As Hurricane Dorian has been nearly stationary over the past day or so, upwelling has increased underneath its center and this has brought cooler waters to the sea surface. In turn, the cooler sea surface temperatures have resulted in a weakening of the hurricane from a category 5 system to category 3 now with max sustained winds at 120 mph. Much cooler air arrives here later this week and it'll be rather pleasant heading into the upcoming weekend.
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Major Hurricane Dorian is now a category 5 storm and continues to be a significant threat to Florida and the to rest of the US east coast. It is now moving westward at 8 mph with max sustained winds at 160 mph and is approaching the northwestern Bahamas. By tomorrow, powerful Dorian will be slowing down to a crawl as it crosses over the NW Bahamas and closes in on the east coast of Florida. Later tomorrow and Tuesday, as Dorian makes its closest approach to the east coast of Florida, the hurricane will begin a turn toward the northwest/north and likely begin to move parallel to the coastline. Since there is still some uncertainty with the track forecast and a slight shift will make a huge difference, the eastern part of Florida remains under the threat of direct impacts from Dorian; especially, near the coastline. Later in the week, Dorian is likely to take a ride up along the east coast impacting the coastal Carolinas and perhaps eventually impacting the Mid-Atlantic region and New England.
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A serious weather situation continues to unfold as Hurricane Dorian intensifies and continues on a path towards the Bahamas and Florida with possible landfall later Monday into Tuesday. Hurricane Dorian has reached category 2 status as of early Friday morning and could reach “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3) later in the day. High pressure ridging in the upper part of the atmosphere is a key player in the intensification and movement of Hurricane Dorian and it should result in additional strengthening over the next couple of days – perhaps to category 4 status.
As Hurricane Dorian nears the northwestern Bahamas later this weekend, the upper-level ridge will tend to weaken and this is likely to result in a slowing down of the system. The weakening ridge may also allow for a turn to the northwest as Hurricane Dorian approaches Florida and then a turn to the north and northeast once near or just over land. This could very well result in a slow trek up along the eastern seaboard later next week; in other words, we may still be talking about Hurricane Dorian a week from now.
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High pressure will maintain control of our weather for much of the upcoming holiday weekend. Temperatures will be generally comfortable for the next few days and much of the time will be rain-free. Meanwhile, on the tropical scene, Hurricane Dorian - now a cat 2 - remains a major threat for the SE US and especially the Florida Peninsula as it will encounter favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the next couple of days which should result in the attainment of “major” hurricane status for the storm. There is a chance that Dorian turns up the east coast later next week after a likely hit on the Florida Peninsula so that is something we’ll closely monitor over the next several days.
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Following a frontal passage in the overnight hours, less humid air will move into the region and we’ll have a return of mainly sunny skies. High pressure will continue to maintain control of our weather on Friday and the holiday weekend is looking pretty decent with rather comfortable temperatures for the end of August. Meanwhile, on the tropical scene, Hurricane Dorian has become a major threat for the SE US and especially the Florida Peninsula as it will encounter favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the next few days which could result in the attainment of “major” hurricane status for the storm.
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All residents from North Carolina to Florida should closely monitor Tropical Storm Dorian over the next few days as it can have a major impact by later this weekend or early next week in any part of this region. Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened over the past 12-18 hours and has effectively fought off dry air over the Caribbean Sea. In addition, the current track will take the storm over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the near term – largely avoiding the island of Hispaniola which could have resulted in substantial weakening given its rugged terrain. Once TS Dorian makes it past the Caribbean islands and into the southwestern Atlantic, it’ll move over very warm waters and encounter more favorable environmental conditions (e.g., low wind shear) for intensification. If TS Dorian doesn’t reach hurricane status in the next several hours, it is very likely to in the next day or two once out over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and “major” (category 3+) hurricane status is certainly on the table in a few days.
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It’ll turn warmer today ahead of an approaching cool front and there will be an increase in humidity. A couple of showers are likely this afternoon and a late day or evening thunderstorm is possible as well. Following the front, humidity will lower on Thursday and temperatures will again be cooler-than-normal for this time of year and quite comfortable. High pressure looks like it’ll control the weather through much of the upcoming Labor Day weekend and temperatures will remain pretty comfortable for the end of August and beginning of September on Sunday.
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It’ll remain quite comfortable today and then turn warmer and more humid on Wednesday ahead of the next cool front. That front can result in a couple of showers tomorrow afternoon and maybe a late day or evening thunderstorm. It'll turn less humid again on Thursday following the frontal passage and high pressure should ensure us a pretty decent end to the work week and start to the long, holiday weekend.
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After a quiet start to the month in terms of Atlantic Basin tropical activity, the last week of August is beginning with one tropical system over the western Atlantic Ocean and a tropical storm nearing the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Dorian is fast approaching the Windward Islands and it could become a hurricane once over the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean. There is currently some dry air over the Caribbean Sea out ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian which could limit its intensification prospects later in the week and its ultimate track will be quite crucial. A track over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola Island, for example, would likely weaken the system, but that is not a certainty at this point. Finally, the eventual path and intensification of the initial tropical system over the western Atlantic could, in turn, have an impact on TS Dorian depending on its movement and development in coming days.
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