A potent wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will help to form low pressure over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday morning and then it will travel to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Sunday. Rain is likely to break out later Saturday in the I-95 corridor and continue until early Sunday at which time drier air will begin to arrive and lead to improving conditions as the weekend winds down. There will be some cold air around for the weekend system, but the best chance for snow is likely to be confined to areas far west and north of the I-95 corridor (e.g., West Virginia to western/northern PA).
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High pressure will build into the region today and the next couple of days will feature relatively quiet weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic. The next cold front of note will arrive at the end of the week and it could come with a few showers. Temperatures ahead of the front should climb well up in the 50’s on Friday afternoon and then drop back to the 40’s this weekend following its passage. Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Sunday. Rain is likely to overspread the region on Saturday night and continue into Sunday with an outside chance of some mixing with snow at times in normally colder suburban locations.
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Low pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to push away from the region and the next few days will be chilly, but rather quiet with high pressure building in from the Midwest. The next cold front of note will arrive at the end of the week and it could come with a few showers. Temperatures ahead of the front may climb to the upper 50’s on Friday afternoon and then drop back to the 40’s this weekend following its passage.
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Low pressure is tracking well offshore this morning and it will generate more clouds in the region along with occasional light rain or drizzle. It is not out the question that a few ice pellets mix in tonight in the normally colder suburban locations to the north and west. Temperatures will remain below-normal as we begin the new week and should remain at chilly levels for the next few days. Another cold frontal system will approach the region at the end of the week from our northwest.
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Temperatures will climb to the 50 degree mark for highs later today which is higher than the past few days, but still below-normal for the middle of November. A cold front will pass through the region tonight and its passage will knock off more than ten degrees as we begin the weekend. High pressure will build into the region early in the weekend, but then it will push offshore and low pressure will move northeastward over the western Atlantic Ocean. There is a chance that some rain backs into the region later Sunday into Monday - possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow at times - and coastal sections may have some strong winds to deal with as well as the threat for coastal flooding.
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Hundreds of daily low temperature records were set this week in the eastern two-thirds of the nation and, at several sites, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly records that have been set for November are quite impressive indeed as they’ll typically take place in the last week or so of a given month during this time of year. Computer forecast models have been somewhat mixed recently in their temperature anomaly predictions for the US during the remainder of November, but it appears to me that the colder-than-normal pattern will continue right to the end of November for much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
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The unusual early season chill will moderate some today and tomorrow, but it’ll stay below-normal for the middle of November and we’ll take another downward step on Saturday following the passage of another cold frontal system. High temperatures on Friday afternoon will be near the 50 degree mark in the NYC metro region, but will likely hold in the upper 30's on Saturday afternoon. By late in the weekend and early next week, we’ll have to watch a strengthening low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean which could impact coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic region. A second coastal low will have to be monitored for the middle of next week.
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Dozens and dozens of daily low temperature records were set this morning in the eastern third of the nation and, in some cases, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly low temperature records are quite impressive since we haven’t even reached mid-month and most of these type of records would typically take place in the last week or so of the given month. In some spots, today’s record low isn’t the only one to take place in this cold pattern. For example, Central Park’s record low for today followed a record low set before midnight for yesterday and they broke a record on last Friday – the 3rd record low set in just the past several days.
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Low temperature records were set this morning in dozens and dozens of locations across the eastern US including at the following nearby stations: JFK, LGA, Newark, NJ and Central Park, NY. In fact, Central Park has had record lows 3 times in just the past few days (11/8, 11/12, 11/13). Despite plenty of sunshine today, temperatures will struggle to reach the middle 30's which may be the “lowest” high temperature ever recorded here on November 13th. The unusual early season chill will only slowly moderate on Thursday and Friday and then take a step backwards on Saturday following the passage of another cold front which may knock ten degrees off the afternoon highs between Friday and Saturday. By early next week, we’ll have to watch low pressure near the coastline as it tracks northeastward over the western Atlantic.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass passed through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early this morning and temperatures have fallen into the 30’s from early day highs. Precipitation is being enhanced in the cold air behind the front as a strong jet streak aloft generates upward motion in the I-95 corridor. As a result, a changeover to snow is likely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this changeover to snow is likely all the way to coastal New Jersey and Delmarva. Some spots could receive small snow accumulations and as temperatures drop to near freezing later in the day, watch for the possibility of “black ice” on some roadways. Precipitation winds down later today and the cold will become the main story with record low temperatures in numerous Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations by early tomorrow. Widespread records were set earlier today from Texas to the Great Lakes with some stations recording their lowest temperature ever for the month of November and we are not even at the halfway point.
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