The contrast between this past weekend and next weekend will be quite remarkable in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. An unusually cold air mass for this time of year will drop into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by the early part of the upcoming Mother’s Day weekend and it will contrast markedly with the above-normal temperatures experienced this past Saturday and Sunday. In fact, the chill that is headed this way for the late week/weekend may very well result in near record lows across a wide region of the nation extending from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard and snow is even a possibility in the interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US will quite likely continue until at least the middle of the month May.
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Unfortunately, the nice and warm weekend that we just experienced does not mean that the cold air outbreaks are over for the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, there could be some record or near record cold in much of the central and eastern US by the upcoming weekend. It’ll turn out to be quite windy today and just a bit cooler compared to Sunday and then turn even cooler for the remainder of the work week. An even colder air mass for this time of year will arrive by the upcoming Mother's Day weekend and highs on Saturday are likely to be confined to the 50's with overnight lows in the 30's and it'll remain chilly on Sunday.
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A slow-moving upper-level wave of energy will edge on top of the Mid-Atlantic region today and it’ll keep it quite unsettled around here with occasional showers likely and maybe a thunderstorm or two. The good news is that the weekend should get off to a decent start after early morning clouds on Saturday with some sunshine developing and mild conditions. Yet another low pressure system will, however, head our way late in the weekend returning to us the chance of showers by late Sunday afternoon or early evening.
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Tropical moisture is flowing northward into the eastern US from the Gulf of Mexico, southwestern Atlantic, and the Caribbean Sea. This influx of tropical moisture is combining with a painfully slow-moving frontal system and a vigorous wave of energy in the upper atmosphere to fuel a widespread area of heavy rain that extends from Florida to the Northeast US. The heavier and steadier rain has moved into the DC metro region and should arrive in Philly this afternoon and New York City by this evening. The potential exists for as much as 1.5 - 3.0 inches of rain in much of the eastern US between now and mid-day Friday. Flash flooding will become an increasing concern given the heavy rainfall and the already pretty well saturated grounds. Winds will also be an important factor with this storm system as gusts could easily pass 50 mph in some spots; especially, near and along coastal regions - watch for power outages.
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A north-to-south oriented surface cold frontal system that trails low pressure over the Great Lakes is inching its way towards the east coast and the atmosphere will moisten up significantly ahead it with an influx of tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico, SW Atlantic, and Caribbean Sea. This influx of tropical air will set the stage for excessive rainfall later today and tonight in much of the eastern US extending from the Carolinas to New York State. In fact, given the very slow movement of the frontal system and the high precipitable water amounts expected, total rainfall amounts could end up between 2 and 4 inches and flash flooding will become an increasing concern given the already saturated grounds. The upper-level energy supporting the low pressure will move over the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday generating additional showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. The weekend should start off on a decent note with some sunshine on Saturday and milder conditions after possible early morning lingering clouds. Another system, however, is likely to push more showers into the region by later Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into the month of May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country is very active as we wind down the month of April and it has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one has dropped southeastward into the Mississippi Valley region from southwestern Canada. This wave of energy aloft and its corresponding surface low pressure system will move very slowly over the next 48 hours due to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere over the southern part of Canada. These slow-moving systems and a painfully slow-moving surface frontal boundary zone will combine with an influx of tropical moisture to produce a major rain event from tomorrow into early Friday in the eastern US extending from the Carolinas to New York State. Localized flash flooding is likely to become a serious concern during this upcoming event with 2-4 inches of rain on the table in many areas.
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**A major rain event is on the way**...The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country as we close out the month of April is very active and has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one is on the way. This next powerful wave of energy aloft will dive southeast from southwestern Canada into the Upper Midwest by this afternoon and then slide into the Mid-Atlantic region by late tomorrow. The combination of this wave of energy in the upper atmosphere, a painfully slow-moving surface frontal system, and a strong flow of very humid air up along the east coast will result in a major rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday into Thursday night. Given the well saturated grounds from recent rains, this next soaking rain event could very well lead to localized flash flooding conditions – something to closely monitor. Looking ahead, the good news is that the weekend looks like it’ll start off with very nice weather on Saturday and it could hold on for much of Sunday as well before more showers return to the area.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country as we close out the month of April is very active and has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one is on the way. This next powerful wave of energy aloft will dive southeast from southwestern Canada into the Upper Midwest by tomorrow afternoon and then slide into the Mid-Atlantic region by late Thursday. The combination of this wave of energy in the upper atmosphere, a painfully slow-moving surface frontal system, and a strong flow of very humid air up along the east coast will likely result in a major rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Thursday night. Given the well saturated grounds from recent rainfall, this type of potential significant rain event could very well lead to localized flash flooding conditions and will have to be closely monitored.
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A significant rain event is in the offing for the Mid-Atlantic region and it would primarily take place during the day on Thursday. Low pressure will push to the Great Lakes region at mid-week and a trailing north-to-south oriented frontal system will grind its way to the eastern seaboard on Thursday. The combination of this slow-moving front, vigorous energy aloft, and a long fetch of humid air up along the east coast from the Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic will likely result in some heavy rainfall around here on Thursday and localized flash flooding may become a concern. The good news is that after another unsettled day on Friday, the weekend is likely to start off with a nice day on Saturday, but another system could threaten us with showers by Sunday night and Monday.
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The overall active weather pattern will continue this week with a soaking rain event possible late Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure will build into the region later today and it’ll turn out to be a pretty decent day on Tuesday. After that, low pressure will begin to influence the weather around here as it heads in this direction and there can be some heavy rainfall associated with it along with a thunderstorm or two from late Wednesday night into Thursday. A cool front arrives on Friday and then high pressure will make an attempt to take control during the upcoming weekend.
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