High pressure stays in control of our weather today providing us with some sunshine and it’ll turn a bit warmer than yesterday. A series of disturbances will make it somewhat unsettled around here this weekend and there will be a daily shot of showers and thunderstorms with the threat primarily focused on the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure resumes control early next week and we’ll likely experience lots of sunshine from Monday through Wednesday and very warm conditions. Elsewhere, the tropics are very active and two different systems are likely going to have a high impact on the Gulf of Mexico region by the early or middle parts of next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of August. There are now two tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin which are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days with the Gulf of Mexico the likely high impact zone by the early or middle of next week. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity over the next couple of week. In addition, the latter part of August is a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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A cool frontal system passed through the region last night and its passage ushered in a reinforcing shot of pretty comfortable air for late August. High pressure will resume control today and help to provide plenty of sunshine for the area. Temperatures today will hold in the lower 80's for afternoon highs and then top out in the middle 80's by week's end. A series of disturbances will keep it somewhat unsettled around here this weekend. Elsewhere, while the eastern US enjoys pleasant weather, it remains quite hot out in the western US. In the tropics, a parade of systems are lined up from the Caribbean Sea to Africa assuring an active stretch of weather as we progress through the part of August.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of the month of August. There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin which are being closely monitored and both are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity as we progress through the rest of August. In addition, the latter part of August is from a “climatological” point-of-view, a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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A disturbance aloft will produce some shower activity this morning in the Mid-Atlantic region, but high pressure should resume control this afternoon and result in clearing skies. Temperatures today will hold in the lower 80's for afternoon highs and again on Thursday and then top out in the low-to-mid 80's at week's end. A series of additional disturbances will keep it somewhat unsettled here from Friday through the upcoming weekend.
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Today begins with quite comfortable temperatures and humidity levels following the overnight passage of a cool frontal system which will slowly sag to the south of here later in the day. An upper-level disturbance can result in some rain activity late tonight and early Wednesday, but then high pressure will build back into the region with clearing skies expected tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will remain rather comfortable during the next few days with a reinforcing relatively cool air mass arriving here tomorrow night.
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The overall weather pattern is shaping up to feature cooler weather in the eastern US where temperatures will be well below-normal at times in coming days and very hot weather in the western US where numerous record highs will be challenged. A large upper-level trough of low pressure will extend from eastern Canada to the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week at the same time high pressure ridging will intensify over the Southwest US. The transition to the cooler weather in the eastern US has come about with plenty of rainfall and the buildup of heat in the western US has come with an increase in wildfire activity that often ramps up during this time of year.
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A stalled out frontal boundary zone will keep it somewhat unsettled around here today and give us a chance at scattered showers, maybe even a thunderstorm. This same front will sag to the south on Saturday as high pressure builds to our north and the weather tomorrow is likely to turn out to be quite decent. Low pressure will ride up along that same frontal boundary zone from tomorrow night into Sunday and that could bring a return of some shower and thunderstorm activity to the region. Temperatures over the next few days will be rather comfortable for this time of year as high pressure builds into southeastern Canada and produces low-level northeasterly flow.
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The overall weather pattern will remain very unsettled in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region right though the upcoming weekend with the threat for more torrential downpours and localized flash flooding; especially, south of the PA/MD border. The combination of an extremely humid air mass, a stalled out frontal boundary zone, and multiple low pressure systems should provide enough “lift” in the atmosphere to continue to produce heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2+ inches per hour. Given the already very well-saturated grounds, this additional rainfall can lead to some serious localized flash flooding conditions. With limited wind flow in the lower atmosphere, any shower or thunderstorm that develops in this pattern will be slow-moving and potentially resulting in a few inches of rain over a relatively short period of time.
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The overall weather pattern will remain unsettled around here over the next couple of days with the continuing threat for showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain can be heavy at times; especially, on the southwest side of the immediate metro region. A slow-moving frontal system will keep it unsettled around here, but this same frontal system should move to our south this weekend as strong high pressure builds across southeastern Canada. As a result, the chance for rain should diminish this weekend and temperatures will be pretty comfortable for this time of year.
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