It looks like the month of October will begin with quite an impressive cold air outbreak in the central and eastern US as a deep upper-level trough forms overhead. The strong surface cold front that will be at the leading edge of the cold air mass is likely to reach the east coast at mid-week and colder-than-normal conditions will last right into the first full weekend of October. On the tropical scene, it looks like the Atlantic Basin may actually have some quiet time – at on a temporary basis - after a very active stretch in the month of September.
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Strong high pressure to our north will continue to control the weather around here for the next few days as it becomes re-established in the Northeast US/SE Canada after retrograding a bit yesterday. Temperatures will climb a bit today compared to the past few days and likely come close to the 80 degree mark for afternoon highs. It stays quite comfortable and dry for the next couple of days and then the chances of showers may climb late in the week and for the weekend as the remains of Tropical Storm Beta push towards the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Strong high pressure to our north continues to control the weather around here and throughout the northeastern part of the nation. Temperatures will remain in comfortably cool territory today, but will turn a little bit warmer for the second half of the week. The overall dry weather pattern that began in earnest last week may very well continue right through the upcoming weekend.
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Strong high pressure to our north will control the weather around here for much of the week. Temperatures will continue to run at below-normal levels for this time of year for the next couple of days, but it’ll turn a bit warmer for the second half of the week. The overall dry weather pattern that began in earnest last week will continue through the week with little chance of rain for the next several days.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred has formed in the eastern Atlantic and that has now exhausted the list of hurricane names for the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. As a result, the Greek alphabet will be used from here on out with the next named system to become “Alpha” and this may be the tropical wave that has been meandering over the western Gulf of Mexico in recent days. The last time the Greek alphabet had to be used for the naming of tropical storms was the very active year of 2005. Meanwhile, Hurricane Teddy has intensified into a category 4 “major” storm over the central Atlantic and it will likely effect Bermuda late in the weekend and then it may have a direct impact on Nova Scotia, Canada as an unfolding blocking pattern in the atmosphere changes its course.
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The passage of a strong cold front in the overnight hours will pave the way for the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region anchored by strong high pressure over Canada. High temperatures from tomorrow through Monday will be confined to the 60’s in the NYC metro region and suburban locations to the north and west can drop to the low-to-middle 40’s during the next few nights. The overall dry weather pattern that began earlier this week with the initial outbreak of cool, dry air will continue well into next week as high pressure dominates the weather scene in the Mid-Atlantic.
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While the remnants of Hurricane Sally produce heavy rainfall today from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic, attention is shifting to two other tropical systems of concern. One tropical system has been meandering over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in recent days and it looks like it will continue to do so for the next few days. As a result, it is very likely to soon intensify into named tropical storm status (would be called “Wilfred”) and it could ultimately have an impact pretty much anywhere on the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida. Meanwhile, Teddy has become a major hurricane over the central Atlantic and it is likely headed to near the island of Bermuda over the next few days. After that, the storm track forecast gets more complicated for Hurricane Teddy as it will encounter a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere with strong high pressure ridging over southeastern Canada and an upper-level trough over the Canadian Maritime Provinces. It is unclear as to whether this interaction will cause a turn to the northwest and perhaps towards northern New England/Southeastern Canada or if Hurricane Teddy will goes harmlessly out into the North Atlantic.
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The rains associated with the remains of Hurricane Sally now extend from Georgia to central Virginia at the same time a strong cold front is pushing southeastward across the Great Lakes. Showers are possible here from later today into early Friday, but the heaviest of the "remnant" rains will stay to our south. The passage of this cold front in the overnight hours will usher in a very cool Canadian air mass for this time of year and we'll experience our lowest temperatures so far in coming nights. Highs are likely to be confined to the 60's in much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from Friday through Monday and overnight lows can drop to the mid or upper 40's in some suburban locations to the north and west of NYC.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of activity today with three hurricanes, Sally, Paulette and Teddy, and each one of them is currently categorized as category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Sally continues to move painfully slowly in the northern Gulf region after making landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama and will likely end up producing more than two feet of rain in some spots before finally pushing away later tonight and Thursday. Hurricane Paulette continues to move rapidly away from the US in an east-to-northeast direction while Hurricane Teddy likely heads towards Bermuda and it could soon reach “major” hurricane status. In fact, Hurricane Teddy will have to be closely monitored in coming days as a strong blocking high pressure system develops over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic which may force this system to the northwest after passing over Bermuda (i.e., perhaps in the direction of northern New England). In addition, a strong tropical wave now spinning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of intensifying over the next day or so; especially, after Hurricane Sally pushes farther inland, and it is likely to ominously meander around the warm Gulf for awhile.
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Hurricane Sally continues to dump copious amounts of rain on the northern Gulf coastal region as it grinds its way northward now as a category 2 storm. Some spots in the region are likely to receive close to two feet of rain by the time it moves well inland. The remnants of Hurricane Sally will push towards the Carolinas over the next couple of days and then off the coast by the early part of the weekend. Meanwhile, a strong cold front approaches the region on Thursday from the northwest. The passage of the cold front on Thursday night will usher in the coolest air of the season so far with afternoon highs likely to be confined to the mid-to-upper 60’s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. One final note, the sun was a brilliant orange/red early this morning in much of the Mid-Atlantic region as a result of an upper-level layer of smoke from all of the wildfires out in the western US.
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