All systems are go for Hurricane “Delta” as it has undergone rapid intensification in the last 24 hours and will very likely reach at least category 4 “major” hurricane status over the next 12-24 hours. During the past 24 hours, Hurricane “Delta” has seen its maximum sustained winds increase by 70 mph – now at 110 mph – which represents the fastest October intensification of a tropical cyclone since “Wilma” of 2005. Hurricane “Delta” is headed towards the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in coming days – very likely as a category 4+ storm. After that, “Delta” may make a direct impact on the north-central Gulf coastal region (e.g., southern Louisiana) by late Friday or so and then take a turn to the north and east once inland with significant rainfall in the Deep South and Tennessee Valley – perhaps even bringing some late weekend rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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High pressure will build into the area today providing us with another nice day featuring comfortable temperatures and plenty of sunshine. Strong low pressure will pass by well to our northwest on Wednesday and drag a cool front through the area ushering in cooler air for the latter part of the week. High pressure will resume control at the end of the week and for the beginning part of the weekend and then attention will turn to the Deep South. Hurricane “Delta” is now a category 2 storm and could reach “major” hurricane status during the next couple of days. Hurricane “Delta” could have a direct impact the northern Gulf region (e.g., Louisiana) by late Friday or so and then its remnants may result in rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region by the end of the weekend.
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A cold frontal system is clearing the coastal region this morning and a cool air mass for early October will spread east to the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes. In fact, it’ll stay cooler-than-normal right through the upcoming weekend with highs confined to the 60’s on each day. Low pressure may try to form along the east later Sunday night and Monday and it could result in shower activity as we begin the new week. As the central and eastern states experience a chill down this weekend, the western states will get hotter and stay rain-free and this will increase the threat for wildfires in that part of the nation.
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Just 100 miles up the coast from where the Wright brothers first flew their airplane at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, Northrop Grumman is scheduled to launch its Cygnus cargo spacecraft aboard the Antares rocket from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS), located at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. The rocket launch is scheduled for 9:38 PM Thursday, October 1st at NASA’s Wallops Island Facility and it may be visible throughout the Mid-Atlantic region (launch was originally scheduled for Tuesday, but was scrubbed due to rainy weather conditions).
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One cold front passed through the region on Tuesday night and a second front will arrive here late tonight. Showers are likely as this front arrives late tonight as weak low pressure forms along the frontal boundary zone. The passage of this second cold front will bring a cool air mass into the region for the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday time period with generally rain-free conditions. There is the threat for more rain late Sunday night or Monday as low pressure tries to form along the east coast. As the central and eastern states experience a chill down in coming days, the western states will get hotter and stay rain-free and this will increase the threat for wildfires.
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A slow-moving cold front has worked its way through the region and today will turn out to be cooler, breezy and less humid than yesterday. A second cold front will approach the region late tomorrow night and showers are likely to return as low pressure forms along the frontal boundary zone. The passage of that second cold front will bring an even cooler air mass into the eastern states for the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday time period with generally rain-free conditions. More rain is a threat for the early part of next week as another low pressure likely heads this way. As the central and eastern states experience a chill down in coming days, the western states will get hotter and stay rain-free and this will enhance their already rather high wildfire threat.
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A slow-moving cold front will produce rain in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into early Wednesday and some of the rain will be heavy at times and embedded strong thunderstorms are possible. It’ll turn a little cooler at mid-week, but a second cold front will bring an even cooler air into the eastern states for the upcoming weekend. As the central and eastern states experience significant rainfall and an unfolding colder weather pattern, the western states will get hotter and stay dry and this will enhance the wildfire threat.
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A slow-moving cold front is approaching the region and it will generate showers from later today into early Wednesday and some of the rain will be heavy at times. After some clearing later tomorrow, Thursday’s weather will start off nice, but then another cold frontal system will combine with weak low pressure to generate more showers later Thursday night into early Friday. High pressure will settle in for the weekend with a chilly air mass for this time of year, and then another storm system threatens us for the early part of next week.
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It has been cooler-than-normal so far this month in much of the Mid-Atlantic region with some spots in the I-95 corridor recording four consecutive nights with overnight low temperatures in the 40’s – something that hasn’t happened in many decades during the month of September. For the month so far, DC is averaging 1.6 degrees below-normal, Philly 1.3 degrees below-normal, and Central Park in New York City has a monthly average temperature of 0.8 degrees below-normal. Looking ahead to next week, an even colder air mass is destined to reach the central and eastern US as a deep upper-level trough forms overhead. This cold air outbreak for the central and eastern US will roughly coincide with the calendar transition from September to October with a couple of cold fronts ushering in a “step-down” to the colder-than-normal conditions. Once the colder-than-normal air mass becomes established, it looks like it’ll stick around right into the first full weekend of October. In terms of rainfall, a decent chance of rain will come on Monday and Tuesday as a couple of cold fronts push through the region at the leading edge of the colder-than-normal air mass.
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High pressure over the Southeast US will drift off the coast late this week and some leftover moisture from Tropical Storm Beta will works its way into the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will continue to run at pretty comfortable levels for the next several days with highs generally at or below the 80 degree mark and there can be a shower from time-to-time from later tomorrow into the weekend. Looking ahead, a very chilly air mass for this time of year will make its way from central Canada early next week to the central and eastern US by later in the week.
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