An Arctic frontal system will work its way through the Mid-Atlantic region early tomorrow and some “post-frontal” snow can cause slick spots on the roads from about the time of the AM rush hour to around mid-day. Rain will break out later tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ahead of the Arctic front, but then as colder air filters into the region, precipitation will mix with and then change over to snow right around morning commute time on Thursday. Accumulations are likely to end up in the 1-3 inch range by mid-day tomorrow after the changeover takes place. Bitter cold conditions will follow the system for tomorrow night and Friday with overnight lows in the 10-15 degree range and highs doing no better than the 20’s to end the work week.
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Accumulating snow is likely early tomorrow upon the arrival of the next Arctic air mass as low pressure will form along an incoming frontal boundary zone. Rain will break out later tonight ahead of the Arctic front, but then mix with or change to snow towards daybreak as colder air filters into the region. The threat of snow will be greatest for about a 5 or 6 hour period from its likely beginning in the 5-7 AM time period. I expect accumulations of 1-3 inches in the NYC metro region with isolated higher amounts possible, and while not a significant amount, the timing of the snow will not be great as it will coincide with at least part of the AM rush hour on Thursday. Bitter cold air will flow in behind the system on Thursday night and Friday and then another low pressure system will have to be watched for the early part of the weekend. Currently, that system is more likely to generate accumulating snow to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a possible focus on the zone from southeastern Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to coastal southern New Jersey…still a close call though.
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An Arctic frontal boundary zone will be a key player in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days as it will be a focus area for the formation of low pressure systems. One such low pressure system should bring a period of accumulating snow early Thursday upon the arrival of the next Arctic blast. Another low pressure system will form along the stalled-out frontal boundary zone at week’s end and the extent to which it can push to the north will dictate how much snow, if any, can fall on Friday night and/or Saturday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Yet another system will have to be watched for later in the upcoming weekend as the cold and active weather pattern in the eastern US will continue right through the rest of the month.
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The overall weather pattern looks active and quite cold for the next couple of weeks with multiple storm threats on the table. High pressure will be in control today and Wednesday and it’ll turn milder tomorrow just ahead of the next cold frontal system. That front will generate some rain shower activity tomorrow night which can change to snow towards daybreak. In fact, a period of snow is possible early Thursday with the possibility that a wave of low pressure forms and rides up along the incoming frontal boundary zone. The upper air pattern will be rather volatile by the upcoming weekend and it could result in a storm for parts of the eastern states anytime in the period from Friday night to Sunday.
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Winter will not loosen its grip anytime soon in the eastern US as it appears a very cold weather pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the month. In addition, the overall pattern looks to be quite active as well with multiple storm threats possible and perhaps one by the early part of the upcoming weekend.
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Low pressure will push northward today into upstate New York and then New England, but it’ll still have an impact around here with strong winds and the chance of residual rain showers early and snow and/or sleet showers during the mid-day and afternoon. Broad high pressure will take control of the weather for Tuesday and Wednesday and then a strong cold front will move through on Wednesday night with the chance of rain and/or snow showers. High pressure returns on Thursday anchoring a colder air mass and then attention will turn to a possible storm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region during the weekend.
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Very cold, dry and dense Arctic air is well established this morning in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US at the same time low pressure and its associated moisture field are now pushing to the north from the southeastern states...not a good combination. A significant ice and snow event is now unfolding for the interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas and snow will push into the Mid-Atlantic region later in the day and early tonight with front-end accumulations in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. With an influx of milder air from the ocean, a transition will take place in the I-95 corridor from snow to sleet to freezing rain and ultimately to plain rain in some areas. In addition to the wide range of precipitation types, this storm will bring high and potentially damaging winds and coastal flooding to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Looking ahead, another storm could very well threaten the same part of the country next weekend.
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An Arctic air mass poured into the northeastern quadrant of the nation in the overnight hours resulting in very cold and extremely dry conditions. At the same time, a vigorous disturbance in the upper atmosphere has pushed southeastward from the central Plains into the southern Plains. This system will edge into the Deep South by later tonight and surface low pressure will form in the northern Gulf region. On Sunday, the intensifying low pressure system will push northward through the eastern states with its expanding moisture field producing a wide range of impacts from snow-to-ice-to-rain. High (and potentially damaging) winds and coastal flooding will become an increasing concern with this storm on Sunday and impacts will last well into the day on Monday; especially, across the northeastern states.
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Many ingredients are coming together for a high impact type of storm system in the eastern third of the nation from Sunday into Monday with accumulating snow, ice, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and even high (potentially damaging) winds all on the table. The upper-level wave of energy that will be the catalyst for storm development has come ashore and it will dive to the south and east over the next couple of days. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, precipitation will push into the Mid-Atlantic region with cold, dense air in place and a period of snow and/or ice is likely in most interior sections with plain rain a likelihood along coastal areas. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is in line for accumulating snow on the front-end of this storm and this can be followed by a period of icing given the expectation that the dense, cold low-level air mass will be tough to dislodge.
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A cold air mass will push into the region later today and tonight riding in on increasing northerly winds and all backed by strong Arctic high pressure building into the southeastern part of Canada. It remains very cold on Saturday and Saturday night and then attention will turn to our south for the second half of the weekend. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, moisture from this storm will push into the Mid-Atlantic region and with the cold, dense air in place, a period of snow and sleet is likely on the front-end in the NYC metro region. Early accumulation estimates are on the order of a couple of inches - perhaps 1-3 inch range - with the higher amounts to the northwest of NYC. Coastal flooding is possible with high tides Sunday night/early Monday and damaging wind gusts are possible along coastal sections of NJ.
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