Low pressure intensified late yesterday as it pushed northeastward just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it has now reached the open waters off of eastern New England. On the back side of the low, our skies will clear today and it’ll stay brisk and cold despite the return of sunshine. High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region and be the main player until another cold front arrives later in the week.
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Weak low pressure is currently located over the Carolina coastline and it will intensify over the next 6-12 hours as it pushes northeastward. A batch of precipitation well in advance of the low pressure system broke out earlier today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor resulting in some patchy freezing drizzle and light snow in spots. A second and more widespread batch of precipitation is now headed northeastward as the low intensifies and it will arrive later today in the same DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with enough residual cold air around to allow for the likelihood of some snow and/or sleet. The threat for some snow, ice and/or rain will continue into the latter part of the evening and small snow/ice accumulations are quite possible; especially, in suburban locations to the north and west of the big cities. Watch out for icy patches on the roads early Tuesday morning as temperatures should be at or below freezing.
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Low pressure is organizing just off the east coast today and it will result in some precipitation around here as early as this morning. Temperatures around here this morning are low enough to allow for some patchy freezing drizzle; especially, given the cold ground conditions from the recent chill and there can be sleet and/or snow in some spots. Later in the day and this evening, temperatures will be above-freezing; however, there can still be a mix of snow, ice and/or rain. This low pressure system will push away from the area on Tuesday and high pressure will retake control of the weather scene with moderately cold conditions into mid-week.
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The slow-moving Arctic front that has been the focus area of significant snow, ice and rain in recent days has crossed through the I-95 corridor region this morning and temperatures have responded accordingly by dropping quickly from very mild early day levels. As a result, plain rain that continues to fall at this time can begin to freeze on some untreated surfaces later in the day and sleet and/or snow can mix in as well by day’s end. Temperatures will continue to drop in the nighttime hours so any still-standing water will certainly freeze as the Arctic air mass arrives in full. Overall impacts of the icing in the immediate I-95 corridor region will be rather limited since drier air will tend to inhibit any appreciable precipitation amounts not long after temperatures drop to the freezing mark or below.
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A slow-moving Arctic cold front is inching its way across the region this morning and cold, dense low-level Arctic air will filter in from the northwest to the southeast as the day progresses. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early today can transition to freezing rain during the late morning/mid-day hours from northwest-to-southeast and sleet can mix in as well. There can be a buildup of some ice on any untreated surfaces such as trees, grass by the end of the day; especially, in the northern and western suburbs. Temperatures will continue to drop tonight as the Arctic air mass arrives in full force so watch out for any leftover standing water that can quickly freeze up. Cold high pressure takes control for the upcoming weekend with sunshine expected on both days. Low pressure will then organize just off the east coast on Monday and it could have an impact on the eastern Mid-Atlantic region by late Monday or Monday night in the form of snow and/or rain.
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Quite a muddy mess in the Mid-Atlantic region today with occasional rain, snowmelt, and some patchy fog as well - all out ahead of a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system that has wreaked havoc on much of the heartland during the past couple of days with snow, ice and rain. That cold front will inch its way across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor tomorrow morning and an Arctic air mass will filter into the region from the northwest-to-southeast. After a very mild start early in the day along the immediate I-95 corridor, temperatures will fall throughout the remainder of Friday following the passage of the Arctic front. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early tomorrow can begin to freeze on some untreated surfaces by mid-day or early afternoon across suburban locations to the north and west. The rain can also mix with or change to sleet and/or snow for a brief time later in the day on Friday. It does appear that the icing potential in this case will be rather limited in nature around here as drier air will tend to inhibit any appreciable amounts of precipitation while we are on the cold side of the front. Temperatures are likely to continue to drop tomorrow night which can lead to a quick freeze-up of any standing water that still remains.
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It’ll turn milder today in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be occasional rain lasting right into the overnight hours. A slow-moving Arctic cold front will inch its way across the region by early tomorrow morning and cold, dense low-level Arctic air will filter in from the northwest to the southeast. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early Friday will transition to freezing rain during the late morning/mid-day hours from the northwest to the southeast. There can be some buildup of ice in the northern and western suburbs on any untreated surfaces such as trees, grass. Temperatures will plunge tomorrow night as the Arctic air mass arrives in full force…watch out for any leftover standing water that can quickly freeze up early tomorrow night.
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Phil saw his shadow this morning in upstate Pennsylvania signaling there will be 6 more weeks of winter which is probably the right forecast as it looks now. At the very least, it is looking quite wintry going into the middle of the month for much of the central and eastern US as additional cold air outbreaks are quite likely and there should be other storm threats as well. A slow-moving Arctic frontal system is the focus of attention today across the nation’s heartland as it is being accompanied by a little bit of ice in some spots and a lot of snow in other areas.
After a mild and wet Thursday and Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic, this slow-moving cold front will inch its way across the region early Friday morning and cold, dense low-level Arctic air will filter in from northwest-to-southeast. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early Friday can begin to freeze on some surfaces in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor potentially leading to an icy mess; especially, in some of the suburbs to the north and west. Later Friday, the precipitation can change from freezing rain to sleet and then perhaps for a brief time to all snow before winding down early Friday night. Temperatures are likely to drop sharply on Friday night so any roads that remain wet can quickly “freeze-up” - including in those areas along coastal New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula where temperatures may not drop to freezing until early Friday night.
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Patchy fog this morning combined with temperatures at or below freezing can lead to some “black ice” on untreated road surfaces during the next few hours. It’ll turn a bit milder later today in the Mid-Atlantic region and then even milder on Thursday ahead of a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system. Some rain is likely to break out here late tonight and there will be more rain on Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday, as low-level Arctic air filters into the area from the northwest, there can be a changeover to ice and/or snow with temperatures likely to slowly drop during the day. Those temperatures could crash on Friday night as the Arctic air arrives in full force and this could set the stage for a “freeze-up” potentially leading to worsening road conditions.
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Tomorrow is Ground Hog Day and if I could provide some advice to my fellow Pennsylvania prognosticator, it would be to lean towards the prediction of 6 more weeks of winter. At least it is looking quite wintry for the next few weeks in much of the central and eastern US as cold air outbreaks will continue and there are likely to be multiple storm threats on the table. The next few days will feature a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system across the nation’s heartland that will be the focus area for all kinds of precipitation. There will be rain and thunderstorms on the warm side of the front (southeast) and ice and snow on its cold side (northwest). In fact, the ice and snow will impact a large region of the country extending from the Southwest US to the Northeast US before the week is done with some regions likely to experience substantial snowfall and other areas to suffer with some serious icing.
In the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, Thursday will start off as a relatively mild day with some rainfall, but interior sections may begin to see a changeover to ice and/or snow later in the day as low-level Arctic air filters in. Sometime on Friday the rain can change to ice and/or snow in the immediate I-95 corridor with the arrival of the Arctic air and by Friday night, temperatures could be dropping rather sharply - potentially setting the stage for a quick “freeze-up”. Looking ahead and this is still in the speculation phase, another storm system is likely to develop near the Southeast US coastline early this weekend and it could result in some snow/ice in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the Sunday/Monday time frame.
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