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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

10:50 AM | *Cool blasts likely to continue in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US right into the early part of July*

Paul Dorian

This past Father’s Day weekend featured spectacular weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with comfortable temperatures for the middle of June and low humidity values. Indeed, the spring season as a whole has seen numerous cool air masses push into this part of the nation from Canada moving along in a general northwest-to-southeast fashion. In fact, almost all areas across the northern US have experienced near normal to below-normal temperatures back to the beginning of 2022. It appears that these cool blasts from Canada will continue across the northern states next week and beyond into at least the first part of the month of July.

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7:00 AM | **The weather becomes more unsettled today in the Mid-Atlantic...showers here late today/tonight/Thursday**

Paul Dorian

The weather becomes more unsettled today in the Mid-Atlantic region as a stationary frontal system stalls over the area and a low pressure system develops along the boundary zone. This low will tend to move from Virginia to the Carolinas and it can enhance rainfall later today and tonight. High pressure returns later in the week and then a strong cool front approaches the area by the early part of next week.

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7:00 AM | *Chance of rain increases some here today...even better chance comes later tomorrow/tomorrow night*

Paul Dorian

After a sunny day on Monday, there will be more in the way of clouds today as a weak front pushes into the region and there can be a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or tonight. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms will come to the region later tomorrow into tomorrow night and some of that rain can come down hard at times. Temperatures will remain under control in the Mid-Atlantic region as the summer season begins thanks to a northwesterly flow of air aloft as high pressure ridging remains centered over the middle of the nation.

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7:15 AM | *50 years ago this week one of the worst natural disasters Pennsylvania ever faced...Tropical Storm Agnes...DC, Virginia hit hard as well*

Paul Dorian

Track of Agnes from June 14th – June 23rd, 1972 (white circles indicate category 1 hurricane status); courtesy Wikipedia

Overview

The official Atlantic Basin tropical season was barely underway in June of 1972 when a polar front interacted with an upper-level trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula.  Within a few days, a tropical depression formed and the system moved slowly eastward and emerged in the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the month.  The depression began to intensify over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and soon became Tropical Storm Agnes – the first named storm of the 1972 tropical season.  Ultimately, Agnes would reach hurricane status, grow to a diameter of about 1000 miles, and become the costliest hurricane at the time to hit the US and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania was the prime focus of its wrath.

Satellite image of Agnes on the first day it reached hurricane status just off the western tip of Cuba. Courtesy NOAA

General Discussion

Tropical Storm Agnes intensified over the Caribbean Sea in the middle of June 1972 and began curving northward passing just to the west of Cuba on June 17th.  By the next day, Agnes reached hurricane status and then made landfall near Panama City, Florida on June 19th as a category 1 (weak) hurricane.  In typical fashion, the tropical system weakened once it moved over land and dropped back to “depression” status as it pushed northeastward into Georgia.

Close-up of Agnes approaching Florida as a category 1 hurricane in June 1972; courtesy NOAA

However, in this particular case, the tropical system then began to regain strength as it pushed through South Carolina and into eastern North Carolina.  In fact, while over eastern North Carolina, Agnes regained tropical storm status as it was about to head out over the waters of the western Atlantic Ocean before re-curving northwestward and making landfall near New York City as a strong tropical storm.  After this, Agnes ran into an atmospheric road block (i.e., upper-level blocking pattern) and this forced it to slow down and loop around into northern Pennsylvania where it eventually gradually dissipated.  The slow movement of Agnes allowed for some incredible rainfall amounts to pile up in the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. 

Satellite image of the remnants of Agnes once over the Northeast US; courtesy NOAA

Pennsylvania’s worst nightmare

The weeks before Agnes approached Pennsylvania in June 1972 were quite wet with numerous heavy rain events.  As a result, a disaster was almost unavoidable with the onset of slow-moving Agnes as grounds were already saturated throughout much of the state. As Agnes slowed down to a grinding halt right over northern Pennsylvania, the rainfall amounts piled up across the state and there was intense flooding – more so than in any other state.  In many cases, the rivers rose to levels not ever seen before. The highest rainfall amount of 19 inches was measured over western Schuylkill County and much of the state ended up with at least 7 inches of rain making Agnes the wettest tropical cyclone ever for the state of Pennsylvania (the city of Philadelphia got off easy with only a few inches). 

On June 22, the murky waters of the Susquehanna River reached eight feet above normal. Fourteen hundred National Guardsmen were ordered to the area where they worked to secure low-lying areas by erecting walls of shale, sandbags, and rock. By Friday, June 23, the river swelled to 38.5 feet; the dike had long since buckled and left surrounding towns truly vulnerable. On June 23, 1972, Harrisburg’s Patriot-News was canceled for the first time since it began in 1852. By Saturday evening on June 24th, the water levels had reached their peak and Agnes pummeled Wilkes-Barre and the Wyoming Valley with 14 trillion gallons of water; submerging homes and destroying communities. 

Floodwaters from Agnes surround the Governor’s mansion in Harrisburg, PA

Elsewhere, the Brandywine Creek crested at 16.5 feet in Chadds Ford (Delaware County) sending flooding waters into that city.  In Reading, the Schuylkill River reached a record flood level of 31.5 feet and hundreds of people were evacuated. In the end, more than 100,000 people were forced to leave their homes across the state due to flooding including many in the capital city of Harrisburg where some buildings were under 13 feet of water. Gov. Milton Shapp and first lady Muriel Shapp were rescued by boat from the flooded governor's mansion. By the time the storm finally ended, there were 128 deaths directly attributed to Agnes and 50 of those occurred in Pennsylvania – more than twice that of any other state – and there were $2.3 billion in losses across the Keystone State.

Rainfall amounts from Agnes reached a peak in Pennsylvania with 19 inches recorded in western Schuylkill County

Impact on the DC metro region

Rainfall amounts were staggering across Pennsylvania and also in much of the DC metro region. Chantilly, Virginia, for example, recorded 16 inches from Agnes and 13.65" officially fell at Dulles Airport.  Wind gusts peaked at around 50 mph at Dulles and National Airports (8.16” inches of rainfall recorded at DCA).  The most tragic aspect of this event in the Washington D.C. area was the loss of sixteen people who were swept to their deaths in the swirling floodwaters. Most of these drownings involved motorists that were trapped in automobiles (credit Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang).

Final thoughts

Hurricane Agnes finally exited Pennsylvania on June 25, 1972 with its sights set on western New York. By most accounts, the scope of the devastation puts Hurricane Agnes at the top of Pennsylvania’s worst natural disasters, even though it did not cause the most deaths. The two deadliest, both of which occurred on May 31, were the Johnstown Flood of 1889 (2200+ fatalities) and the Great Pennsylvania Tornado of 1985 (65 fatalities) [credit Washington Post/Capital Weather Gang].  

Agnes left quite a legacy among those who suffered her wrath; consequently, the name was retired by NOAA and barred from future use.  In fact, Hurricane Agnes was the first category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin to have its name retired and is today one of only five such storms with that distinction.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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7:00 AM | *Still comfortable as we begin a new work week and no sustained heat for the Northeast US*

Paul Dorian

A refreshingly cool air mass pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region just in time for the Father’s Day weekend and it’ll remain quite comfortable today as we begin a new work week. The upper-level flow remains generally in a northwesterly direction across the northeastern states with high pressure ridging centered over the middle of the nation and as long as this is the case, sustained heat will be difficult to attain in this region. As far as precipitation is concerned, after a rain-free day today, the chances for showers will rise some later tomorrow. Then there appears to be a real good chance of chance of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday into Wednesday night and some of this rain can be heavy. Later in the week, we’ll have to watch out for the movement of a cut-off low pressure area over the western Atlantic Ocean which could change the current outlook for generally dry conditions around here.

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7:00 AM | *A fall-like weekend for the Mid-Atlantic region with a very comfortable air mass on the way*

Paul Dorian

A couple of cold fronts will usher in a spectacular air mass for this time of year just in time for the Father’s Day weekend. An initial cold front passed through the area last night and the arrival of a second front later today can spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Strong high pressure will then take control of the weather for the weekend…a system that had its origins way up in northern Canada providing us with very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. There will be a stiff NW wind on both weekend days with gusts to 30 mph possible. Elsewhere, intense heat will continue to affect the region from the south-central states-to-the Southeast US over the next several days and some of this hot air will try to make an advance into the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week.

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6:00 AM | ***Heavy showers/strong storms early today and possible again late this evening...setting up for a great weekend***

Paul Dorian

A couple of cold fronts will usher in a spectacular air mass for this time of year to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes just in time for the upcoming Father’s Day weekend. There will be some active weather, however, before we get to that point with showers and strong thunderstorms early today and again this evening associated with an initial cold front. There can be another shower or thunderstorm on Friday associated with the arrival of a secondary cold front. Strong high pressure will then take control of the weather for the weekend…a system that had its origins way up in northern Canada. Elsewhere, intense heat will continue to affect the region from the south-central states-to-the Midwest-to-the Southeast US over the next several days and some of this hot air will try to make an advance into the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week.

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11:30 AM | *A fall-like weekend in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes…some active weather before we get there…stays very hot south-central US/Midwest/Southeast US*

Paul Dorian

A couple of cold fronts will usher in a spectacular air mass for this time of year to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes just in time for the upcoming Father’s Day weekend. There will be some active weather, however, before we get to that point with the threat of showers and strong thunderstorms from late tonight into early tomorrow morning and then again on Thursday evening in association with an initial cold frontal system. In addition, there can be another shower or thunderstorm on Friday as a secondary cold front arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong high pressure will then take control of the weather for the weekend…a system that had its origins up in northern Canada. Elsewhere, intense heat will continue to affect the region from the south-central states-to-the Midwest-to-the Southeast US over the next several days and some of this hot air will try to make an advance into the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week.

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7:00 AM | *After a rain-free day, more showers and storms are possible late tonight into tomorrow night...weekend shaping up to be quite nice*

Paul Dorian

The timing of the next cold front could turn out to be perfect as it likely clears the way for a very nice June weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region featuring very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. It will be quite breezy, however, on both weekend days. The cold front will generate some shower activity in the area anytime from late tonight into tomorrow night and there can be a couple of strong thunderstorms mixed in as well. High pressure from Canada will drop to the Great Lakes by the weekend and will anchor a cooler-than-normal air mass for the region on both Saturday and Sunday. Elsewhere, the next several days will feature some very hot weather in the Midwest and Southeast US and some of this air will try to make it into the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week.

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1:00 PM | *Father’s Day weekend shaping up to be quite nice in the Mid-Atlantic region…likely to get quite a bit warmer by the middle of next week*

Paul Dorian

Today has been an active weather day in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be more shower and thunderstorm activity later in the week with the arrival of the next cold front. The timing of the next cold front could turn out to be perfect as it likely clears the way for a very nice June weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with very comfortable temperatures for this time of year. Looking ahead, an intense heat wave is likely to develop during the first half of next week from the nation’s mid-section to the southeastern states and some of this heat may expand to the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week.

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