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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

11:00 AM | ****Weekend winter storm impacts Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US…powerhouse storm threatens with very heavy rain, interior snows, damaging winds on Tues/Wed…intense cold****

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that began in December will continue for the foreseeable future across the eastern half of the nation. A winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US this weekend with significant accumulating snow across interior, higher elevation sections from West Virginia to Massachusetts and a mixture of precipitation in the big cities along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Another storm system will impact the eastern half of the nation in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and this one looks like a powerhouse. It is likely to feature very heavy rainfall, interior accumulating snows, and potentially damaging winds with power outages on the table in many states. If that isn’t worrisome enough for next week’s storm, throw in some snow cover from this weekend’s system and flash flooding may become a real concern next Tuesday/Wednesday in those snow-covered areas that do receive heavy rainfall.

Looking ahead, there has been plenty of intense cold in recent weeks on the other side of the North Pole (e.g., China, Scandinavia) and signs continue to point to some intense cold making its way onto the North America side in coming days.

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6:30 AM | ***Weekend storm to bring mixed bag of precipitation to the region...powerful storm impacts us next Tuesday/Wednesday with heavy rain, strong winds***

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern of recent days will continue during the next several across the eastern half of the nation. A winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend with accumulating snows across interior sections and a mixture of precipitation in the big cities along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Another storm system will impact a large part of the eastern half of the nation in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and this one looks like a powerhouse. It is likely to feature very heavy rainfall, interior accumulating snows, and potentially damaging winds with power outages on the table in many states. If that isn’t enough, there may be another strong storm system to deal with in the eastern states by the early part of next weekend.   

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12:15 PM | ***Active pattern continues…weekend storm favors snow across interior Mid-Atlantic…Tuesday/Wednesday storm threatens with heavy rain, interior snows, potential damaging winds***

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern of recent days will continue during the next several across the eastern half of the nation. A winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend with accumulating snows across interior sections and a mixture of precipitation in the big cities along the I-95 corridor. Another storm system will impact a large part of the eastern half of the nation in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and this one looks like a powerhouse. It is likely to feature very heavy rainfall, interior accumulating snows, and potentially damaging winds with power outages on the table in many states. If that isn’t enough, there may be another strong storm system to deal with in the eastern states by the early part of next weekend.   

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7:00 AM | **Weekend storm favoring snow accumulations to the north and west of metro region...powerful storm next week**

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern of recent days will continue during the next several days across the eastern half of the nation. One storm will bring wintry precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend and then a powerhouse storm can bring heavy rain and strong winds here from Tuesday into Wednesday. The precipitation with the weekend system likely arrives here as snow or snow and ice during the early-to-mid afternoon hours on Saturday and then likely transitions to rain or a mixture with small accumulations likely before the changeover. The storm next Tuesday/Wednesday is likely to bring heavy rain here with potentially damaging winds (power outages on the table), and there is a chance that the precipitation starts out as snow or a mix of snow and ice. There are likely to be additional systems to deal by the time we get through the middle of the month in this on-going active weather pattern.

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2:30 PM | ***Active pattern to say the least…weekend storm favors accumulating snow in the interior Mid-Atlantic...heavy rain, interior snows, powerful winds with next week's storm***

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern of recent days will continue during the next couple of weeks across the eastern half of the nation…and that may be quite an understatement.  One storm system will impact the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend with wintry precipitation favoring accumulations across the interior and likely a mixture in the big cities along I-95. Another storm system will impact a large part of the eastern half of the nation in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame of next week and this one looks like a powerhouse. It is likely to feature very heavy rainfall, interior accumulating snows, and potentially damaging winds with power outages on the table. If that isn’t enough, there may be a couple of more systems to deal with in the eastern half of the nation by the time we get through the mid-point of January.

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7:00 AM | ***Accumulating snow remains a threat for the weekend***

Paul Dorian

High pressure will remain in control in the Mid-Atlantic region for another day, but a couple of weak systems can produce a few snow and/or rain showers late tonight into early Thursday. After a cold and dry Friday, low pressure with plenty of moisture will pull out of the southern states on Saturday and spread snow and/or rain into the I-95 corridor from later Saturday into Sunday and snow accumulations are on the table. The evolution of the weekend storm is still not set in stone; however, the potential does exist for some spots to receive the most accumulating snow seen in quite awhile.

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1:45 PM | ***Weekend accumulating snow threat highest on northwest side of I-95…powerful storm next week to bring heavy rain, interior snows, potentially damaging wind gusts***

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that brought multiple heavy rain events to the Mid-Atlantic region in December continues as we begin the new year and it is likely to result in accumulating snow this weekend; especially, in areas to the north and west of Route I-95. In about a week’s time, yet another storm system is likely to feature heavy rain, interior higher elevation snows, and potentially, damaging wind gusts. A predecessor system to the weekend event can bring some rain and/or snow shower activity to the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow night into early Thursday. This particular system will not be a big deal; however, it will intensify significantly once well off the Northeast US coastline and likely end up being a key player in the weekend event.

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6:30 AM | ***An active pattern continues into the new year and brings us an accumulating snow threat for the weekend***

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern continues into the new year likely bringing the Mid-Atlantic region an accumulating threat this weekend and there are a couple other systems to monitor as well. One system will drop southeastward from Canada on Thursday and interact with a low pressure system near the southeastern US coastline and the combination can produce some rain and/or snow shower activity in the area from late tomorrow night into early Thursday. This first system will not be a big deal for us; however, it will intensify significantly when it moves well off the NE US coastline and it’ll end up playing a key role in the potential weekend accumulating snow event. Low pressure pulls out of the southern US this weekend and will push in this direction and it’ll run into a cold air mass over the Mid-Atlantic region thanks in part by the passage and intensification of the first system. The ultimate storm track for the weekend is still in some flux, but the potential is there for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region and, in some areas, the most in a long time.

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10:00 AM (Monday) | ***Active pattern continues into the new year and brings an accumulating snow threat to the Mid-Atlantic this upcoming weekend…widespread Arctic cold on the table by mid-month***

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that brought multiple heavy rain events to the Mid-Atlantic region in December continues into the new year and it could result in an accumulating snow event this weekend. In addition, there will be a predecessor system that can bring some rain and/or snow shower activity from later Wednesday night into Thursday. This initial system will not be a big deal; however, it will intensify significantly once well off the Northeast US coastline and likely end up being a key player in the weekend event.

Low pressure pushes out of the south-central part of the country this weekend and will have plenty of available moisture. The weekend system will run into a cold air mass over the Mid-Atlantic region thanks in part by the passage and intensification of that preceding low pressure and its ultimate location (50 degrees latitude/50 degrees longitude). The storm track for the weekend storm is still in some flux, but the potential is there for the most snow seen in a long time for at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, another (warmer) storm can follow during the early or middle of next week (~1/9-1/10) and signs continue to point to the possibility of widespread Arctic cold across much of the nation by the middle of January.

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***On-going stratospheric warming event takes it to a new level…an active weather pattern with multiple threats to monitor***

Paul Dorian

A northern hemisphere stratospheric warming event that began during the latter part of November will rise to new levels within the next ten days or so and this could have important ramifications on temperatures across the central and eastern US from later January into February. Temperatures at the stratospheric level of 10 millibars will climb dramatically over the next ten days or so from about -70 degrees (Celsius) to about -25 degrees (Celsius) as warming aloft intensifies over the polar region of the northern hemisphere. The “polar vortex” that typically resides near or over the North Pole during this time of year will become displaced and “stretched” in coming days and this could unleash some high latitude cold air masses into the middle latitudes by the time we get into later January and February. In the near term, the weather pattern will be quite active across the eastern states with multiple systems to monitor during the next couple of weeks and temperatures will return to more seasonal levels.

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