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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

10:30 AM | ****Outer bands of tropical storm already in Mid-Atlantic...main impact from late today through tomorrow evening...weekend looks good...looking ahead to another possible tropical threat****

Paul Dorian

Tropical Storm Debby made a second landfall earlier today about 25 miles to the northeast of Charleston, South Carolina and has begun the normal weakening phase as it pushes farther inland. Despite the weakening, the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to pound away today at the Carolinas with additional heavy rainfall as copious amounts of tropical moisture still feed into the system from the southwestern Atlantic. Some spots in South Carolina can end up with 25 inches of rain when all is said and done and up to 15 inches in likely in portions of North Carolina.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, outer bands have already produced occasional showers and the main impact will come from late today into Friday evening as the tropical depression passes over the front range of the Appalachians. The impact in the I-95 corridor will include occasional heavy downpours, embedded thunderstorms, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes are even on the table. Scattered power outages are also on the table given the combination of saturated grounds and wind gusts potentially up to 45 mph or so. The heaviest rainfall during this upcoming event will likely come along the front range of the Appalachians (e.g., eastern West Virginia, western Virginia, central Pennsylvania) where southeasterly winds will be “lifted” by the increasing altitude.

Looking ahead, the “soon-to-come” acceleration of the tropical system will allow for a nice weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and the overall weather pattern looks quite nice from Saturday through the middle of next week all across the Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US (and it should be favorable for the Perseid meteor shower). One final note, there are signs that there may be another tropical threat to deal with in the eastern US by around the middle of the month.

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7:00 AM | ***Outer bands associated with tropical storm here today...main impact from tonight into Friday evening with occasional downpours, strong storms, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes***

Paul Dorian

After spending yesterday out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Debby has made a second landfall early today just to the northeast of Charleston, South Carolina and it will begin to accelerate to the north later tonight and pass to the west of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor on Friday. Outer bands associated with the tropical storm have already reached our region and the main impact here will occur from tonight through Friday evening. There will be occasional heavy downpours, embedded strong thunderstorms, gusty winds, and even isolated tornadoes during the tropical storm’s main impact time period. As the remnants of the tropical system accelerate to the northeast, skies will clear here by early Saturday and the weekend should turn out to be quite nice. In fact, the period from Saturday through the middle of next week looks quite nice throughout the northeastern quadrant of the nation with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.

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12:45 PM | ***TS Debby strengthens off SC coast with 60 mph winds...makes second landfall early Thursday...to turn north and impact Mid-Atlantic region from late Thursday through Friday night***

Paul Dorian

Tropical Storm Debby is out over the very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and it has strengthened some today with maximum sustained winds now at 60 mph. Tropical Storm Debby will make a second landfall by early tomorrow morning and then begin a turn to the north that should bring it’s remnants just to the west of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor on Friday afternoon. As such, there is the threat of some heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms, gusty winds in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Thursday through Friday night and isolated tornadoes are on the table. The tropical system will accelerate to the northeast by Saturday with improving conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and we’re setting up for a stretch of nice weather from Sunday through Tuesday all across the northeastern part of the nation.

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7:00 AM | ***Cooler for the second half of the week...TS Debby impact here from later Thursday through Friday night***

Paul Dorian

It turns cooler for the second half of the week following the passage of a cold frontal system that will actually stall out later today just to the south of here. Tropical Storm Debby is now out over the open waters of the SW Atlantic just off the coastline of South Carolina and it could re-intensify later today back into category 1 hurricane status. Whether or not Debby returns to hurricane status, it will continue to produce tremendous rainfall amounts in the Carolinas during the next 24 hours or so and likely makes a second landfall by early Thursday morning.

After that, the tropical storm is going to be kicked out to the north and move into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday…likely just to the west of I-95. This path will give us the chance here for some heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and even isolated tornadoes from later Thursday through Friday night with weather conditions likely to improve on Saturday. Looking ahead, the weather looks quite nice and comfortable for Sunday and Monday following the passage of the tropical system.

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****TS Debby to move back over water...a second landfall early Thursday...extreme rainfall amounts in South Carolina...Mid-Atlantic gets very heavy rainfall/severe storms later today/tonight****

Paul Dorian

Tropical Storm Debby is about to move back out over the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean…just off the coast of South Carolina. This system will re-intensify some during the next 24 hours or so with a chance of getting back to category 1 hurricane status and then it’ll likely make a second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina. Whether or not Debby returns to hurricane status, there will be extreme rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next couple of days centered on the state of South Carolina.

Farther north, much of the Mid-Atlantic region will experience very heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms from later today into early tomorrow due to a combination of tropical moisture feeding northward from Tropical Storm Debby and an incoming strong cold frontal system. The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will finally get kicked to north late in the week with heavy rainfall and potentially even tornadoes a threat in the entire Mid-Atlantic region on Friday/Friday night.

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6:30 AM | ***An increasingly tropical air mass with late day/nighttime showers and storms...some of the rain will be heavy...much cooler second half of week..."Debby" impact Thursday into Saturday***

Paul Dorian

Despite the fact that the center of Tropical Storm Debby will likely not move to the Mid-Atlantic region until the end of the week, its influence around here will actually begin late today and tonight. The combination of an increasingly tropical air mass and an incoming cold frontal system will result in late day and nighttime showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy at times and flash flooding may become a concern during the overnight hours. It turns much cooler for the second half of the week following the passage of the cold frontal system which will actually stall out just to the south of here.

Tropical Storm Debby is now near the Georgia/South Carolina coastal border region and it will meander to a position just off the South Carolina coast by late today and tonight. Some re-intensification is possible on Wednesday while TS Debby is out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic and then a second landfall is likely on Thursday somewhere along the South Carolina coast. After that, the tropical storm is probably going to be kicked out to the north and move into the Mid-Atlantic region which likely results in additional heavy rainfall around here from later Thursday into early Saturday.

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2:45 PM | **"Debby" to produce tremendous rainfall amounts in the SE US...2nd landfall likely after some re-intensification...enhanced heavy rain threat in Mid-Atl. begins as early as late tomorrow**

Paul Dorian

Debby made landfall this morning in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast as a category 1 hurricane. While Debby has weakened to “tropical storm” status, it will likely produce tremendous rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next few days as its northward progression is stymied by high pressure ridging building to its north. The remnants of Debby will then push off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline by mid-week and it can undergo some re-intensification over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic. In fact, there is the chance that Debby returns to category 1 hurricane status depending on its length of time over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By Wednesday night or early Thursday, Debby will likely make a second landfall perhaps over the northeastern coastline of South Carolina.

Farther north, tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the threat for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region as soon as late tomorrow as it interacts with an incoming cold frontal system. Following the frontal passage on Wednesday, it turns much cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week with afternoon highs generally confined to the 70’s in places like DC, Philly and New York City. There will also be a continuing threat of tropical rainfall later this week as the remnants of Debby finally kick out of the SE US by the end of the week and push to the north…several inches of rain are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic between now and the end of the upcoming weekend.

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6:30 AM | **Tropical moisture to enhance chance of heavy rain here as early as late tomorrow...threat of tropical rains continues through second half of week due to slow-movement of tropical system**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will build across the region over the next couple of days and all eyes will be on what is now a category 1 hurricane named “Debby” which is about to make landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast. Tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the chance of heavy rain around here as early as late tomorrow and tomorrow night and the threat of tropical rains will continue here for much of the second half of the week due to the slow-movement of this system. The week starts off with very warm and humid conditions today and Tuesday, but then it’ll turn much cooler on Wednesday and Thursday with the interaction of what remains of Hurricane Debby.

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6:15 AM | ***Good chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe...an unsettled weekend as well***

Paul Dorian

An intensifying upper-level trough of low pressure will slide towards the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight and it’ll actually play a role in the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. Specifically, this system will enhance upward motion in the area raising the chance of showers and thunderstorms - possibly strong-to-severe - and that threat of rain will continue on each weekend day. In addition, a southwesterly flow of air out ahead of this incoming trough will push very moist air into the area suggesting any shower or thunderstorm that does form during the next few days can produce some very heavy rainfall amounts in an impacted location.

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7:00 AM | *Hot for the next couple of days with afternoon highs up in the 90's...watching the tropics*

Paul Dorian

An upper-level ridge builds into the Mid-Atlantic region for the next couple of days and this will lead to hotter conditions with afternoon highs well up in the 90’s in most spots along the I-95 corridor. A few shortwaves will keep it unsettled around here right through the upcoming weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms; primarily, focused on the afternoon and evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms during the next few days can produce heavy rainfall amounts given the high amounts of available moisture and the likely slow-moving nature of the storm cells. Elsewhere, the tropical scene is alive and well in the Atlantic Basin as we flip the calendar to August and there could be an intensifying tropical system to deal with over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

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