Low pressure will push eastward across the higher elevations of the western US during the next few days resulting in significant snow accumulations on the order of 1-2 feet from the Sierra Nevada Mountains of easter California to the Colorado Rockies. This same low pressure system will then spill out into the middle of the nation at mid-week and move rather quickly across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday night and to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by mid-day Thursday. As a result, rain is likely to reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by late Wednesday night and continue into Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) morning. Farther to the north, accumulating snow may fall from Thursday into Friday across interior, higher elevation locations of upstate PA and upstate NY to New England.
Following the departure of the low pressure system to the western Atlantic, a northwesterly flow of air will develop across the northeastern states bringing much colder-than-normal air from Canada into the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and NE US. The “Great Lakes snow machine” will turn on with the much colder-than-normal air flowing over the still relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes. Looking ahead, the influx of much colder-than-normal air into the eastern states by this weekend will begin a cold pattern that is likely to last well into December... one of the coldest starts in many years to the month of December and it will have a “Siberian connection”.
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A cold front will cross the region on Tuesday and it is likely to bring some rain to the area from late tonight into early Thursday. After the frontal passage, it’ll be chilly on Wednesday with partly sunny skies and then attention turns to a low pressure system that will approach the region from the southwest. This system will likely push rain into the area from late Wednesday night into Thursday and then it should turn out to chilly and breezy on Friday with clearing skies. The weekend looks windy and cold in the Mid-Atlantic region and the colder-than-normal pattern that sets up this weekend is likely to last through at least the first full week of December.
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Colder air has wrapped into our slow-moving storm system and there will be plenty of moisture to deal with today throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. As a result, snow or a mix of rain and snow is likely this morning across many of the northern and western suburbs and there can be small grassy accumulations. Any snow that falls this morning is likely to change back to rain this afternoon as the overall upward motion in the atmosphere weakens. Significant snowfall is likely across the higher elevation locations of northwestern New Jersey and across the Catskills and Adirondacks in upstate NY where early season skiing conditions should be quite good. Any snow that falls will be of the “wet” variety as low-level temperatures will be “borderline” throughout this event.
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A strong cold front passed through in the overnight hours with a band of heavy rainfall and gusty winds and colder air has followed into the Mid-Atlantic region. Surface low pressure has formed along the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline, and instead of pushing to the north, it will be “forced” to rotate around as it becomes increasingly influenced by strong blocking high pressure to the north. As such, an area of moisture now over the northern Mid-Atlantic will loop back around and impact the entire region by later tonight and through the day on Friday.
As the atmosphere turns colder, the precipitation will mix with snow and/or ice pellets by later tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and then likely to all snow for awhile on Friday in much of the area. In fact, small accumulations are possible on Friday across many of the northern and western suburbs along the I-95 corridor. Significant snowfall of at least 6-12 inches is coming to much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA, and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a wintry look to the unfolding weather pattern that will include additional threats of snow for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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With a deepening upper-level trough overhead and a developing surface low pressure system, “wraparound” rain showers will continue today in an unstable environment and they’ll continue off and on right through tomorrow evening. The surface low pressure system will, in fact, be “forced” to rotate around for a period of time as it becomes increasingly influenced by the strong blocking high pressure system stationed to the north of here over northeastern Canada.
As colder air wraps into the system, the rain can mix with snow later tonight and perhaps can change to all snow for awhile on Friday. In fact, small accumulations are even possible on Friday across some of the northern and western suburbs of the NYC metro region. There will significant snowfall across some of the higher elevation locations of upstate NY from the Catskills to the Adirondacks where some early season skiing looks quite possible.
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If you are a skier in the northeastern part of the country then this upcoming storm system will be quite good news as early season significant accumulating snow is likely in much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY. In fact, snow is quite possible during this event all the way into the I-95 corridor and small accumulations are possible on Friday in some of the northern and western suburbs; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border.
A deepening trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will slide south and east to a position over the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow night and this will help to spawn a (secondary) low pressure system near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will become a slow-mover thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be parked over northeastern Canada. In addition to the threat for the first snows of the season, the northeastern states will experience very beneficial rainfall on the storm’s front end as a cold front pushes through from late today into early Thursday…and that won’t be the end of the precipitation.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December.. It is quite a wintry look to this unfolding weather pattern that will include additional snow threats…perhaps one late next week right around Thanksgiving Day.
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A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with rainfall from early tonight into Thursday and it is likely to turn out to be the highest rainfall totals that we’ve seen in quite awhile with 0.75” to 1.25” possible by morning. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From tomorrow afternoon through Friday, instability rain showers are likely and enough cold air can wrap into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow; especially, in the far northern and western suburbs. Significant snow is likely across some interior, higher elevation locations across northwestern NJ and upstate NY to include the Catskills and Adirondacks...an early season delight for skiers.
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The weather map is quite busy currently across North America with intense high pressure ridges combined with deep troughs of low pressure and on top of that we have some tropical moisture on the playing field as well. A deep trough over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help to spawn a rapidly intensifying storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later today through tomorrow with hurricane-force winds, tremendous rainfall in low-lying areas, and substantial snowfall in the inland, higher elevation locations that will be on the order of several feet in some spots. This storm system will become a slow-mover and there will be lingering effects from northern California to Oregon and Washington all the way through the second half of the week.
Another upper-level trough will slide south and east during the next couple of days from the north-central states and deepen markedly as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Thursday. An initial low pressure system will head to the Great Lakes while a secondary forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This unfolding storm system will also become a slow-mover during the latter part of the week and will bring with it beneficial rains, accumulating snows across inland, higher elevation locations, and a prolonged period of strong NW winds.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a winter look to the overall pattern that should include threats of snow as well.
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High pressure will generally dominate the scene in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the first half of the week, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.
The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. In fact, this is likely to be the most significant rainfall event in several weeks for this area with 0.75” to 1.25” on the table. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday and look for significant accumulating snow across portions of upstate NY to the north and west of here.
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Quite an active and somewhat unusual weather pattern is developing across North America and one that will feature multiple intense upper-level ridges of high pressure and deep troughs of low pressure. One result of this overall pattern will be a powerful storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later tomorrow into Wednesday. This storm will feature explosive intensification with as much as a 70 millibar drop in 24 hours of its central pressure yielding the strength of a “category 4” hurricane and easily classifying it as a “bomb cyclone”. Another significant storm system will develop in this active weather pattern during the late week bringing with it rain, accumulating snows, and a sustained period of strong winds across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.
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