It is rather warm and humid today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and it looks like we better get used to these conditions as a “Bermuda-high” weather pattern is setting up for the eastern states. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the eastern US here at the beginning of the week will dissipate shortly and strong ridging will form over the western Atlantic by mid-week. As such, a broad southwesterly flow of air will develop along the Atlantic Seaboard and likely persist for several days bringing warm and humid conditions to the I-95 corridor and moisture levels will be high enough to produce a daily shot of showers and thunderstorms.
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An upper-level trough has moved into the eastern states and it will lead to an unsettled start to the new work week with an associated frontal system pushing through the region tonight. As a result, there can be additional occasional showers and thunderstorms through tonight and any rain that falls can come down heavily at times. A warm front will then push northward through the area later tomorrow setting the stage for the remainder of the week to remain quite warm and humid and there will be a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.
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One upper-level trough will move away from the northeastern states as we end the work week and then another one in this direction later in the weekend. As a result, generally rain-free conditions are likely both today and on Saturday and then there will be an increasing shot of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday and Monday.
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It remains somewhat unsettled across the area today with low pressure still spinning over the northeaster states. As a result, scattered showers are likely and there can be a thunderstorm as well. It should be rain-free on Friday and Saturday, but the next system will raise chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.
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After a very active afternoon and evening in the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday, there will be much improvement here at mid-week as a comfortable air mass pushes in from our northwest. Comfortably warm weather will continue during the remainder of the week and then another system could have an impact by the latter part of the weekend and the early part of next week.
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While not everyone will get hit, the atmosphere is fueling up to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours in the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are on the table as well as torrential rainfall from this significant system with the greatest chance of flash flooding likely in the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., E PA, N NJ, NYC) and the greatest chance of severe weather likely in the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva). Multiple ingredients are coming together to raise the likelihood of this very active weather pattern for later today and tonight.
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A significant storm system to impact the Mid-Atlantic region…
The next couple of days will be quite unsettled across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US as an upper-level trough of low pressure sends spokes of energy our way from the Great Lakes. As a result, there will be numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region…some of the storms can be severe and some of the rain will be heavy. The best chance for the severe weather will likely be across the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva) and the best chance for flooding rainfall will likely be across the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., NE MD, eastern PA, NJ, NYC)…watch out for localized flash flooding. Surface low pressure will develop later today underneath the upper-level trough and spin around quite slowly extending the threat of rain into the mid-week.
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Numerous ingredients will come together during the next couple of days to raise the possibility of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. In an overall pattern quite similar to a week ago, strong upper-level ridging is currently centered over the Rocky Mountain States, and the outer periphery of this system features northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes. Embedded within this northwesterly flow will be an intensifying upper-level jet streak on Tuesday that’ll drop to the south and east enhancing upper motion in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough of low pressure is currently positioned over the southeastern part of Canada, and it will add fuel to the fire by sending spokes of energy into the northeastern states during the next couple of days. Finally, not to be outdone by its upper-level counterparts, the surface level will get involved as low pressure will deepen over the Delmarva Peninsula on Tuesday and there will be a secondary surface low unfolding over western NY State.
All of these ingredients can result in severe thunderstorm activity during the next couple of days with a focus on Tuesday afternoon and evening and there can be torrential rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region with 3+ inches on the table. The best chance of severe weather on Tuesday will likely be across the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva), and the best chance of soaking rainfall will likely be across the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., eastern PA, NJ, NYC), but some of these details still have to be worked out.
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The next couple of days will be quite unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region as an upper-level trough of low pressure over southeastern Canada sends spokes of energy our way. As a result, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms here on Monday to start the new work week and an even better chance on Tuesday. In fact, some of the thunderstorms on Tuesday can reach strong-to-severe levels and some of the rain can be heavy at times. On Wednesday, low pressure looks to move offshore and there can be lingering showers and storms in the area during the afternoon hours, but the threat of severe weather will be lower than tomorrow.
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The next few days will remain quite comfortable across the Mid-Atlantic region with moderate warmth and humidity levels for this late stage of the month of July...and no extreme heat is in sight. An upper-level trough of low pressure will re-establish itself over the northeastern states during the early part of next week and this could contribute to another strong-to-severe thunderstorm outbreak on Tuesday afternoon/evening in the Mid-Atlantic region and heavy rainfall is a possibility as well.
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